They out (Carver)! #mnwx

I agreed to take part in our fire department Movember stache growing contest. So what do I do 10 days into the month? Clean shaven... 🤦‍♂️

It never wears off! 🤣

There are 2 days a year that require a song to be played on that day. On September 21st, you must listen to some Earth, Wind, and Fire. The other comes November 10th, when a check-in with Gordon Lightfoot is a requirement...https://youtu.be/FuzTkGyxkYI?si=4i1zjpk1WDJIqtpn

As I tell everyone at the office, we're all but losing November from the ranks of a winter month in November here in MN...

For some reason I have agreed to take my kids to the movie theater to see a sing-along version of K-Pop Demon Hunters. Wish me luck...

I love the cycling reference you pulled out for this one!

a cartoon of spongebob sitting on a rock with his hands together ALT: a cartoon of spongebob sitting on a rock with his hands together

Time for a college hockey rant aimed at NoDak fans in particular... You haven't been the Sioux in over a decade now. You're the Hawks. It's time to move on!

Chatter about warm waters in the north Pac and a possible flavor of the 2013-2014 winter to this upcoming winter (that was a truly gnarly winter!) is increasing. However, it's not water temps in the north Pac, but where tropical convection ends up in the Pac that matters. So don't freak out...yet!

Our "president" was absolutely played like a fiddle by Israel...

Sweet Jesus that's a lot of rain. 12z HREF with nearly 5" of rain for us through Wednesday morning 😲☔ #mnwx

Needs more parking lots 😉

And finally, for any burgeoning forecasters out there, the tilt of the upper trough matters! If this upper trough were aligned from south central MN to eastern ND it would be game on!

Now I'm not saying it's a bad thing that we won't have every news agency in the country doing a live shot from in front of a pile of debris in MN Tue morning. I just wonder what happens next time we need to roll out a message about a severe weather outbreak and this is what they'll remember...

My concern is what kind of credibility hit does the weather community at large take as we start this severe season? When I'm answering questions of people wondering if they should bring their pets to work because of how bad they fear the storms will be, the messaging has gone much too far.

The end result is we get a QLCS that is forced along the cold front. No long track supercells with massive wedge tornadoes. Just a healthy line of storms with some 1-2" hail, sporadic damaging wind gusts and maybe a brief tornado or two. Certainly nothing we'll still talk about in 10 years. (3/4)

This 500 mb chart at 7pm this is what's been giving me pause about this being a significant event. Note the positively tilted trough from eastern SD to northwest MN. This positive tilt means the best upper forcing will lag behind the best severe environment. (2/probably 4 now!)

Since I'm kind of anonymous here, I'll give my true feelings on today's severe risk in MN. With respect to being a Moderate Risk, today will be a bust. I'm not saying we won't get any severe weather, I just don't see there being much significant severe, especially wrt to tornadoes. (1/3)

It feels like the administration is quickly transitioning from "who's next to go" to "what's next to go". The US has been the global leader in Atmo Sci research going back to at least the revolutionary work of Ted Fujita in the 70s. I'm afraid we may be witnessing us handing that status away...

Southeast Missouri and southern Illinois would like CCR to know that yes indeed they have seen the rain. They would probably like it if you could make it stop as well...

That's always fun when you can see a tornadic circulation within the mesocyclone's circulation... #txwx

Kenny is awesome and has quite the sense of humor. I once saw him give a talk at a weather conference about how towns that make good chicken names are also susceptible to getting hit by a tornado. Not the easiest subject to make a parody presentation about!

Thanks Aunt Barb 😂

It was a great episode, though hopefully Southwest doesn't pull a stunt again this week to mess things up between the recording and release of episode 2! 😉

So Twin Cities, what path would you choose? "You'll get nothing and like it" (Euro) or snow bonanza (GFS). You have about 36 hours to make your choice! 😉 #mnwx

Ope!

Must be Spring Break season in MN...

I never thought a 4 year old could puke as much as Allie did last night. Now we get to play the game of who else gets the Norovirus in my household...

Finally, a proper winter storm!

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This pretty much sums up how I felt as I dug into the details of the big system impacting the central US Tuesday and Wednesday. It's a good thing we just dumped about 15% of the NWS workforce at the end of February... 😒