Menzie Chinn

Hassett to Fed? Bessent to NEC Chair on top of SecTrsy? Miran at CEA *and* Fed #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

UPDATED - graph of nowcasts w/dispersion GDPNow, Goldman Sachs at 3.5% q/q AR, St.Louis Fed ~ zero #EconSky @atlantafed.org @stlouisfed.bsky.social NY Fed, @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

@lferrara.bsky.social & Jamel Saadoui on Geopolitical tensions & French inflation #EconSky @mattiaco.bsky.social dario caldara
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Core PCE instantaneous inflation per @janeeckhout.bsky.social at 2.6% > 2% target #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Three indices agree on an unhappy November #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Several series (slightly) below recent peaks, although personal income ex-transfers is up (while cons'n flat-ish) #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Don't look at only GDP - "Core GDP" is slowing #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

If bathroom vanities are tariffed under Section 232 (national security), why not toilet paper(wood pulp)? IEEPA tariffs at risk, and Trump/Bessent Plan B #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Manufacturing snapshot - Sept production, Nov employment #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

I think better - appoint Miran to be NEC Chair, while he retains CEA Chair as well as Fed governor. Then, no more intra-governmental debates!!!!

Business cycle indicators, Dec 1 - guesses etc. #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

ADP private NFP employment downside surprise at -32K; small firms continue to lose jobs diverging fm large; mfg loses #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

EJ Antoni: "[poverty]'s a choice" #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Peer reviewed monetary policy/financial regulation articles of Kevin Hassett #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Consensus ADP private NFP growth at +7K - compared to ARIMA(1,1,1); implications for BLS series (when they come out in a month...) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

GDP is apparently growing fast, but employment growth is nil - could we still be in a recession? Lessons from history... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Jeffrey Frankel on government debt end-stories #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions Bloomberg Economics analysis shows real investment commitments closer to $7 trillion and many of those are in question.

Trump keeps hailing an investment boom that he says is set to top $21 trillion in pledges from companies & countries. But as we write in today's @bloomberg.com Big Take the reality is a third of that. And even that $7 trillion faces major questions.

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/202...

Bitcoin at noon CT ... the shape of things to come? #EconSky

Sadly relevant today.

70 years ago today, Rosa Parks refused to give up her bus seat in Montgomery, Alabama.

Drill, baby, drill?

Most may have missed this last week due to the holiday but the Baker Hughes count for oil rigs has plummeted to the lowest since 2021:

Don't know much about crypto, but I think this means risk appetite is down... #EconSky (only following this because I have to teach abt it this semester...)

Alles ist verloren... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

ADP weekly employment thru 11/8, via Paweł Skrzypczyński... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Updating my lecture notes for "The Financial System", I learned a lot about private credit linkages with rest-of-financial system; unfortunately (for the economy), in my pessimistic moments, think I'm going to learn a lot more in the next year #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Private nonfarm employment growth more than accounted for by firms +500 employees, since May; divergence unseen since 2007... #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Demolishing the East Wing of the White House before finalizing plans for what will be built above its ruins is a near-perfect metaphor for Trump's approach to economic policy. The only difference is the wrecking crew doesn’t claim the rubble is evidence of unprecedented growth.

Deceleration by 1/2 ppt since Liberation Day #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...

Cliff Winston (Brookings) on "Market Corrections Not
Government Interventions: A Path to Improve the US
Economy" (Palgrave MacMillan) #EconSky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...