Menzie Chinn

Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data - Liberty Street Economics A look at the changes in underlying inflation over the past four months using the New York Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation model.

Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data, @newyorkfed.org 's latest

Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings Ratio at 40 (it was 44 in December 1999) #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

ADP vs @usbls.bsky.social on private NFP: changes, cumulative change #EconSky

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Do Republicans/Lean Republican pay much attention to economic news? #EconSky
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Who would'a thunk it? Ground coffee prices stabilize, ground beef price growth decelerates after tariff removal... It's like basic trade theory works! #EconSky @taxpolicycenter.bsky.social

Feb 14 Truflation at 0.69% y/y vs @clevelandfed.bsky.social Feb nowcast at 2.38% #EconSky
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Russian Central Bank reduces rates - slowdown? #EconSky
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Instantaneous PCE defl inflation per @janeeckhout.bsky.social (a=4, T=12) above 2%, and nowcasted rising in December #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social
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Trump's war on the Big Mac: CPI growth relative to 2025M01 in headline, CPI-ex shelter, CPI-electricity, "groceries"
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@atlantafed.org , CBO, WSJ #EconSky
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Tariff pass-through: @heritagefdn.bsky.social vs CBO , Amiti et al./NYFED , Gopinath-Neiman (see also Cavallo et al./HBS, Minton,Smale/FRB, etc., and just about every other mainstream economist) #EconSky
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New measure: Tariffs twice as restrictive as popular estimates, New research brief

New report: Wide array of U.S. #tariffs is inflicting economic pain equivalent to a 21% across-the-board tariff. Improved "Trade Restrictiveness Index" from our Mike Waugh is more accurate & higher than other "average tariff" measures. https://bit.ly/4kpmOqK

Business cycle indicators with benchmarked employment data #EconSky

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Today’s CBO report says US consumers pay 95% of tariffs. 🤡

@brendanvduke.bsky.social
www.cbo.gov/system/files...

Benchmark revision as expected, subsequent path close to expected (except for January, which is 1.5 MAEs above consensus); BLS private and ADP diverge; #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

A Year With No Jobs—But No Recession Revisions in the January employment report may reveal that job growth stalled over the past year, even without a recession.

"If the data revisions play out as expected tomorrow, the United States may have just had a year with essentially no net job growth, yet without being in a recession."

stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/a-year-wit...

Update: Benchmark revision will likely look bad; revisions to post-March data could also be bad (implied by GS) #EconSky
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2025 announced layoffs: AI or DOGE? #EconSky
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Truflation says y/y inflation is 0.7% as of today...'nuff said #EconSky

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Mag 7 forward p/e ratio, capitalization, and investment plans for 2026 #EconSky

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@challengergray.bsky.social layoff announcements, labor force, and recessions #EconSky

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Nowcasting January private NFP using ADP data: +63K vs. Bloomberg +70K #EconSky

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(Nominal) net cash farm income ex-govt support projected to decline 7.5%; +2.5% incl govt support ($44.3 bn in 2026) @usdagov.bsky.social #EconSky

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Trade balance improvement less marked when stripping out gold #EconSky
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Do announced layoffs Granger cause actual layoffs (at quarterly basis)? Ans: Yes! #EconSky
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Jeff Frankel on an American Caligula #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

How fast is Chinese GDP growing in Q3? 5% vs. 4% (@bofit.suomenpankki.fi ) or less ( @rhg.com ) or near trend ( SF Fed CCAT for Q2)? (and what is trend anyways?) @johnfernald.bsky.social Mark Spiegel #EconSky
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This chart seems to suggest a striking pattern: Kevin Warsh's speeches are consistently hawkish, except when Trump is President and about to appoint a new Fed Chair.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...

I guess this is a "risk-off" period... #EconSky