Menzie Chinn

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This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism vs. No It Won’t George W. Bush may think that a war against Iraq is the solution to our problems, but the reality is, it will only serve to create far more.

This War Will Destabilize The Entire Mideast Region And Set Off A Global Shockwave Of Anti-Americanism vs. No It Won’t

Instantaneous core PCE inflation rising, higher than y/y #EconSky @clevelandfed.bsky.social @janeeckhout.bsky.social

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Est'd GDO, GDP+ vs. GDP growth #EconSky @atlantafed.org @philadelphiafed.bsky.social NY Fed

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The Purges Within China’s Military Are Even Deeper Than You Think | ChinaPower Project Analysis of a groundbreaking dataset shows that purges within China’s military are far more extensive than previously understood.

CSIS' China Power project just updated their data on purged military officials, and it is very informative: chinapower.csis.org/china-pla-mi...

Trump’s ICE Is Quietly Stockpiling Weaponry—and It Should Alarm Us All In addition to staffing up at a furious rate, ICE and CPB are acquiring a vast cache of weapons from private contractors, new data reveals. This will not end well—or anytime soon.

Trump’s ICE Is Quietly Stockpiling Weaponry—and It Should Alarm Us All

In addition to staffing up at a furious rate, ICE and CPB are acquiring a vast cache of weapons from private contractors, new data reveals. This will not end well—or anytime soon.

The Kids Trump Sent to ICE’s Dilley Detention Center ProPublica went inside the immigrant detention center for families in Dilley, Texas. Children held there told us about the anguish of being ripped from their lives in the United States and the fear of...

We obtained the Dilley detention center’s 911 call logs.

Among them are pleas for help for toddlers having trouble breathing, a pregnant woman who passed out and an elementary-school-aged girl having seizures.

No respite on measured trade policy uncertainty from the SCOTUS decision #EconSky
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Confidence, Sentiment, and News - February 2026 Confidence is nearly 2 std dev below Jan 25... #EconSky
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Willem Thorbecke on "Understanding bond-stock comovements" #EconSky
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Note to aspiring empirical/policy economists: Don't fall into these traps! #EconSky
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Famous Economists Who Called Themselves "Socialists" And Not a Marxist Among Them

Great history of economic thought, and history, from Bruce Bartlett's Notations, on socialist economists (illuminating, even for somebody who took a whole semester class on "socialism", including "Der Mensch, ist was er isst") #EconSky
brucebartlett.substack.com/p/famous-eco...

Personal income ex-transfers flat, consumption growth decelerates #EconSky

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Sec 122 tariff rate 10%==> 15%; trade policy uncertainty rises (again) #EconSky

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Really, where's the balance of payments problem? #EconSky
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GDP at 1.4% q/q AR; focus on "Core GDP" for trajectory (it's slowing) #EconSky
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As of 11:53AM CT, the Sec 122 tariff rate to take effect on 1/24 is 10%; there is no succeeding White House webpage statement indicating increase to 15%. #EconSky

Sec 122 10% tariff ==> 15% *today*; can't wait for EPU-trade for 2/21 stevenjdavis.com @nickbloom.bsky.social Scott Baker

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

It's obscure - 2021 was a large allocation of SDRs to increase global liquidity

Section 122 invocation vs. reality (reserves, the $)... #EconSky
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James Hamilton on the 2025Q4 advance release - and recession probability #EconSky
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What exactly is the balance of payments problem the US faces? Under a freely floating exchange rate regime, what exactly *is* a balance of payments problem?

Big miss on GDP (1.4% q/q AR vs 2.8% Bbg consensus) & big miss on GDP deflator (3.7% vs. 2.8% consensus), but final sales to private domestic purchasers - a better measure of sustainable aggregate demand - hit nowcasts #EconSky

Paweł Skrzypczyński estimates goods trade balance adjusting for gold; increases in 2025 relative to 2024, even more than using reported/unadjusted #EconSky
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GDP Nowcasts range 1.7% to 3%; even w/3% we won't get back to 2023-24 trajectory; "Core GDP" nowcasted at abt 2.2% #EconSky @atlantafed.org GS, @wsj.com

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Is housing the business cycle in 2026? Ed Leamer said "yes" as of 2015, Richard Greene said "not so much" as of 2022. Or is AI the new housing? No answers from me, just a graph... #EconSky

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News Abuse: Legacy Media Still Attacking Trump Tariffs | News Radio 1200 WOAI | KTRH Local Houston and Texas News USA Today is the latest legacy outlet to claim tariffs are hurting Americans.

On NY Fed tariff article quoted in USAToday woai.iheart.com/featured/hou... "Not so fast, say reputable economists. "I don't think you have to be an expert to realize that...story is absolute hogwash," says E.J. Antoni, economist with the Heritage Foundation."

I laughed & laughed & laughed!

2025 nominal trade deficit at roughly 2024 levels; real trade deficit expands slightly #EconSky
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Jeffrey Frankel on Trump's proposed cap on credit card ratse #EconSky
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His criticism is thick with irony given Hassett's May 5th prediction of covid deaths dropping to zero by mid-May 2020