Robert (Bob) Kubinec

so you're saying the silkie bantam is not available.

Always a mystery to me why political scientists are so pro-TV, especially around elections 🤔

PredictIt bets on talarico vs Crockett

Speaking of prediction markets 👀

Rubio lays out the secret to publishing in the highest impact journals

I told @brookings.edu that Trump will be further emboldened after Maduro's capture and Khamenei's killing to go after heads of state. "Trump has proven to be even more hawkish than his predecessors, leaving future generations to face the eventual blowback."
www.brookings.edu/articles/aft...

Liberals, I promise you that no one has forgot about the Epstein files. Some people just have the ability to think about multiple things at one time.

US bombing children and other civilians for Israel is also very important.

Fascinating angle on vouchers

Another way to put this is that your null effect could be confounded. There might be a confounder that is resulting in a zero estimated effect .

Try putting that in a paper though 😂

NYT using the word quandary to describe US operations in Iran

The big difference between Millenials and Gen Z is that the former all know how to spell "quandary."

🤦‍♂️

I'd like to connect this to declare design, ie use the prior on the bivariate conditional probability table to provide parameters for declare design. Sort of like, "causal graph for big picture, declaredesign for an actual study."

Gothics

There are a lot of British people in Dubai, and some of them are nice.

uh oh

S&P 500 now in negative territory for the year ...

Looks like another spring surprise from the Trump admin... 😬

Congrats!!

Strike on Girls’ School Kills at Least 175, Iranian State Media Says

I find it hard to believe that no one knows who did this; the American public needs to be told what happened here

It's looking like a null effect but they are still checking some sub groups so hold on

Did it go down by 1 SD V-DEM is the real question

A related point is that confounding can both increase and decrease effects sizes. When people say "there could be a confounder," it is equally likely a priori that the confounder results in bias *in a conservative direction.*

I have almost never seen this discussed in published research.

YouTube video by News 19 WLTX USC professor breaks down the US strikes on Iran and what happens next

I did an interview with our local CBS affiliate about the crisis.

youtube.com/watch?v=sF76...

Of Empires and Citizens

Amaney Jamal wrote a whole book on this topic.

press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

Oman & Qatar are the GCC states most amenable to Iran.

So by 1) striking civilian infrastructure across the Gulf & 2) attacking Oman today, Iran was being reckless.

Instead of picking off one GCC state, like UAE, to bully Iran has foolishly revitalised GCC unity w/ its desperate attacks.

Arguments like “bomb Iran and they’ll collapse” physicalize politics. If you punch someone, they may collapse; if you bomb “Iran”, it will collapse in the same way. But corporate entities aren’t physical in that way: “Iran” can’t be bombed, only targets.

I am so grateful that the NYU Abu Dhabi campus and all my friends in the Gulf are safe so far. People in the Gulf are paying the price for a war they did not want & had no choice in.

The US faces few risks now but the fallout of these attacks will haunt us for a long time to come.

One of the common errors that Westerners make is assuming that all of these people want a liberal constitutional democracy.

Unlikely. Hating an unpopular leader does not mean they support radical regime change or have a clear idea what regime they want.

They also cheered when Saddam's regime fell.

Woah ok no, Paul, reviewer 2 does not care if you live in a war zone

A lot of people are looking at this as insider trading but it's an even bigger issue for national security if there was advance warning of air strikes.

Wikipedia article on the 1953 Iranian coup

You see, this time we’ll definitely get it right

Guys this one is not over

Time was, American leaders defined themselves so strongly as honorable that they refused to contemplate starting a war out of the blue, because that would be too much like Pearl Harbor

And the Iranians are very aware that Trump will claim a quick victory if they don't respond strongly. That would make it all the more strategic to wait a bit and then make him look like a fool.