Robert (Bob) Kubinec's Avatar

Robert (Bob) Kubinec

@rmkubinec.bsky.social

Political scientist University of South Carolina. Interests: business politics/corruption, Middle East, measurement, Bayesian statistics The Bayesian Hitman: https://a.co/d/e4QmtKo Website: www.robertkubinec.com

10,216 Followers  |  495 Following  |  5,526 Posts  |  Joined: 21.09.2023
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Posts by Robert (Bob) Kubinec (@rmkubinec.bsky.social)

59% of Americans Oppose the Military Action in Iran www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/u...

05.03.2026 02:23 β€” πŸ‘ 148    πŸ” 41    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 3
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Florence ICE detainee dead after untreated tooth infection, official says An ICE detainee, who had been at a Florence detention center for four months, died Monday following an untreated tooth infection.

An ICE detainee in Arizona has died of a TOOTH INFECTION after it went untreated for weeks, a local official says. He was a Haitian asylum seeker imprisoned in Florence, Arizona. @emilybregel.bsky.social reports.
tucson.com/news/local/b...

04.03.2026 16:24 β€” πŸ‘ 2738    πŸ” 1667    πŸ’¬ 158    πŸ“Œ 324

I'm telling you guys, don't use LLMs to write! They're not good at it! Have them explain their output or document code, fine, but not for anything meaningful.

05.03.2026 02:00 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm actually fairly bullish on AI and academia as AI tools demolish some of the threats to academia, such as de-valuing in-person education in favour of MOOCs and the like.

05.03.2026 01:19 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The White House just posted a video mixing real footage from the Iran strikes with a killstreak animation from Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3

x.com/WhiteHouse/s...

04.03.2026 22:12 β€” πŸ‘ 2300    πŸ” 916    πŸ’¬ 412    πŸ“Œ 880
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Good attempt in the title, but I think they missed a pun opportunity @joshua-goodman.com

04.03.2026 18:46 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This is really one of the best use cases for LLMs. They are much more nuanced search engines than anything else available (assuming they have something in the training data).

04.03.2026 21:42 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Exclusive: Iranian girls killed by β€˜double-tap’ strikes on Minab school Eyewitnesses describe second blast which killed survivors as they sheltered in prayer hall

We need answers on this from the DOD, and we need them now

04.03.2026 18:42 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Opinion | I Worked for Block. Its A.I. Job Cuts Aren’t What They Seem.

A really useful insider take on Silicon Valleyh AI job cuts

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/o...

04.03.2026 18:45 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Wow, the Dem primary turnout among Hispanic voters in Texas is going to be giving the GOP sweats for the next 8 months.

Take Zapata County - turnout in the Dem primary there yesterday was 143% the total number of votes Harris won in the 2024 general election. That's wild.

04.03.2026 12:02 β€” πŸ‘ 1719    πŸ” 388    πŸ’¬ 27    πŸ“Œ 39
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The Man Who Stole Infinity | Quanta Magazine In an 1874 paper, Georg Cantor proved that there are different sizes of infinity and changed math forever. A trove of newly unearthed letters shows that it was also an act of plagiarism.

What this story teaches me: Science was always full of *****les www.quantamagazine.org/the-man-who-...

04.03.2026 11:49 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 2

That is a problem with working with poultry, you're more likely to get diseases πŸ₯Ί

04.03.2026 14:31 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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With Dallas early vote now in, Crockett's path to victory looks gone. She needed 80%+ of the vote there to make up for Talarico running up margins in Austin, San Antonio, and the rural + western counties. Only got 60%.
2026 - 2020 swing hasn't changed all night

docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

04.03.2026 03:23 β€” πŸ‘ 227    πŸ” 44    πŸ’¬ 9    πŸ“Œ 11

wow kind of crazy

04.03.2026 01:13 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

the measurement error is strong in this one 🫑

04.03.2026 01:11 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

🀷

it was working in a quarto document, I think probably prompt phrasing threw it off a bit

04.03.2026 01:10 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Many of the worst Middle Eastern dictatorships emerged from instability:

1. Saddam Hussein
2. Muammar Qaddafi
3. Houari Boumedienne
4. Omar al-Bashir
5. Hafez Al-Assad

Just to name a few... πŸ˜…

04.03.2026 00:21 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
NYT article on khameini successor

NYT article on khameini successor

If your version of "extremely progressive" is Mohammad bin Salman then OK I guess 🫣

Clearly trying to appease US/Israel so that the guy can stay alive long enough to take over

03.03.2026 23:14 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

What is clear from this recent crisis is that #bluesky is the only reasonably reliable source of info. X is dead for that purpose. It's just Grok and weird memes now.

03.03.2026 21:36 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

North Africa has the olive oil, so you're not far off

03.03.2026 20:17 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes though Claude may already be on the other side of that convo... 🫣

03.03.2026 20:16 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Meet three scientists who said no to Epstein The warning signs included a web search, a mother’s doubts, and inklings of a β€œsexist attitude”

This is a nice contrast to all the awful behavior confirmed through the Epstein files. Proud of @jenlucpiquant.bsky.social & @seanmcarroll.bsky.social for picking up on the sexism & charlatanism right away.

03.03.2026 15:29 β€” πŸ‘ 436    πŸ” 144    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 16

all you guys on here being like "claude will change the world" and it just totally bombed trying to write code for a problem set in my glm class. basic stuff.

03.03.2026 19:54 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Guys, this is why you go to school. I guarantee your data science consulting firm is not thinking through what it means that the "machine guarantees the truth."

03.03.2026 19:03 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I think this is the boundary for me: in any particular application, does the machine guarantee the truth? If yes, we should outsource it to a machine (traditional statistical computing, simulations, solvers, for example). If not, we should not.

03.03.2026 03:29 β€” πŸ‘ 96    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 3

I don’t think we fully grasp how powerfully our politics is shaped by constant threats of violence

03.03.2026 15:15 β€” πŸ‘ 100    πŸ” 29    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 2

The tricky part is restricting the model to only generate free text when you want it to. That's what makes the Claude Code system nice is that it is highly structured to avoid doing that. The more open-ended the task, probably the more room for hallucination/generated text mistakes.

03.03.2026 18:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Please Publish In The APSR

03.03.2026 18:34 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Who does this guy think he is, an elected representative of the American people???

03.03.2026 18:34 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I don't think "AI made this" is an excuse. You sign your name to it, that means you wrote it.

03.03.2026 17:11 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0