Corwin Smidt

Rx Kids | A Prescription for Health, Hope, and Opportunity Rx Kids is the first-ever community-wide cash prescription program for pregnant moms and babies. Rx Kids provides all pregnant moms in the City of Flint with no-strings-attached cash of $1,500 during ...

Proud to work with RxKids on this. Community-based cash transfers to childbearing mothers has huge health benefits AND looks to be a winner for keeping them politically engaged. More research to come: rxkids.org/new-research...

Ah i was just speaking of the autocratic wonders of the MI county drain commissioner. This cost us over $30 million and was used to fund art through his wife's organization. www.lansingstatejournal.com/story/news/l...

The Pentagon Disinformation That Fueled America’s UFO Mythology U.S. military fabricated evidence of alien technology and allowed rumors to fester to cover up real secret-weapons programs

"The paranoid mythology the U.S. military helped spread now has a hold over a growing number of its own senior officials who count themselves as believers." www.wsj.com/politics/nat...

‘This must be resolved’: Hoitenga affirms Wexford County is not a sanctuary community despite DHS report LANSING, Mich. — State Sen. Michele Hoitenga on Friday called for immediate action to ensure Wexford County is in compliance with federal immigration laws after it was recently identified by the U.S.

Lol Wexford County got mistakenly listed as a sanctuary county by some random group a while ago and the Trump administration put them on their list and they are upset www.misenategop.com/this-must-be....

Good catch. But it is still much less likely to happen to a voter in Canada than be struck by lightning. Blais has a single vote deciding a riding as 1/25000. The chances of getting struck by lightning in a 80 year lifetime are 1/15000.

I know, I have been looking!

Loving the All Dressed chips in the store this past month because of the Canadian boycott of Frito Lay

The AI race to the bottom for cheating student subs is strong.

Inspired by sovereign wealth funds, I was revisiting the evidence on the 2nd bank and Biddle v Jackson; and Big surprise the corruption was real: www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Public opinion is awesome

A violet levee

Party Nationalization and Institutions | The Journal of Politics: Vol 71, No 4 Party nationalization has two distinct components: the first is based on the degree of homogeneity in the geographic distribution of a party's vote, and the other is defined by the degree to which nat...

FWIW, I think the comparativists have been right to go with different specifications for this type of analysis. There are some funky issues with using those lags. For example: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1...

My grad class is reading Steadfast Democrats for next week. I am seeing it as valuable to view in contrast of Latino vote trends

Both can be true

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez Wants Fellow Democrats to Look in the Mirror Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, who is on track to win re-election in a rural Washington district, says her party needs to stop demonizing others and change the candidates it supports.

So this helps explains why Gluesenkamp Perez didn't endorse her. Harris never talked to her. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/u...

Yes, the online model work does well showing recall of considerations is a bad way of understanding. Doesn't mean online is right though!

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in "beer" poll that predicted past winners The question of who voters would rather have a drink with has been used to determine a presidential candidate's likability for years.

Is there a better poll out there? Hoping we can put the beer item test to bed www.newsweek.com/kamala-harri...

Agreed, looking back at 2020 primary makes more sense than looking at the lack of a 2024 primary.

smidtc-electionscience / 2024-mi-turnout · GitLab GitLab.com

I guess I am out alone by having Michigan turnout going down this year. gitlab.com/smidtc-elect...

But data be what they be.

Grant proposal challenge unlocked - get funding for mascot.

Fluoridation Sculpture, A view of the thirty-three-foot high sculpture, Steel Water, looking toward the southeast. The wave-shaped pieces of three-quarter-inch steel, representing flowing water, are painted bright blue and a...

Trump's final rally Monday is in Grand Rapids Michigan, birthplace of public water fluoridation www.historygrandrapids.org/photo/752/fl...

Based on a normal vote, campaigns don't matter county level turnout and partisan split estimate: Michigan's two-party vote split averages 54% D this year. All recent polls in Michigan (outside NYT/Sienna) have 1) Republican PID equal or ahead of Democrats; 2) Harris outperforming the PID split.

You can stop @egojunk.bsky.social from believing!

Those Michiana counties are very swingy.

Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan, tied in Pennsylvania, new CNN polls show Harris holds leads in Wisconsin and Michigan outside the margins of error, a new CNN poll found, while Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania.

Just saw this Suffolk poll oversampled Kent (300n) last week under the claim it is a bellwether. Kent is the opposite of a bellwether! It is negatively correlated with state trends. www.freep.com/story/news/p...

If EPIC-MRA has Harris up 3 with a +1 Republican sample that's really good news for Harris. ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/pre...

@egojunk.bsky.social you were right to give Hertel the 6 points vs Barrett

However, the point is even in low turnout election Democrats are still expected to win. Only when assuming low turnout and Trump's 2016 margin, do the margins equate to zero and a slight GOP win.

Even when adjusting for higher turnout by averaging to past elections, the population changes still benefit the GOP in Michigan. If we replicate county 2-party margins, then Biden's margin statewide would have shrunk to by 1% point (about a third).

Haven't discussed it over here, so time to review. 1) estimates of MI turnout expected to be DOWN compared to 2020. 2) if we only look at turnout in February and August, we would expect less than 5 million voters (10% lower). 3) BUT Presidential primary turnout likely not as good an indicator