Brigitte Roth Tran

"The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters" by Brigitte Roth Tran ( @brothtran.bsky.social ) and Daniel J. Wilson was just accepted at #JAERE.
Read more here: buff.ly/17d9yEe

🌪️Can communities really "build back better" after a natural disaster?
📈A new #JAERE study finds they can. Eight years after disasters triggering federal aid, per capita income in U.S. counties is 0.5% higher, driven by rebuilding that lifts local wages and home prices.
📊#JaereFigureFriday
🌎#EconSky

If you'll be on the #EconJobMarket this coming year, you may want to join this webinar by @aereorg.bsky.social, titled, "Navigating Uncertain Waters: Advice for the Current Job Market," with Min Gong & @adrienneohler.bsky.social. 29 Sept 2025 @ 11am ET.

📢Call for Nominations📢

The SF Fed and its Center for Monetary Research are launching the new Janet Yellen Award!

This award will be given annually to an exceptional early-career researcher who has made significant and policy-relevant contributions to macro-finance and/or monetary economics.

🌎 PhD students: apply to 2025 Berkeley/Sloan Summer School in Environmental/Energy Economics!

🔗 Info + application: www.auffhammer.com/summer-school

📅 Deadline: May 14 | Program: Aug 18–22 at Berkeley

w @auffhammer.bsky.social @severinborenstein.bsky.social, TCarleton, MFowlie, KJack...

Three small white bird eggs partially speckled with dark red spots lay in a meticulously assembled nest of fine straw bits under the shade of some parsley leaves.

A zoomed out view of three small white bird eggs partially speckled with dark red spots laying in a meticulously assembled nest of fine straw bits under the shade of some parsley leaves. Also visible is the wood plank on the edge of the raised bed garden. The nest is right up against that wood. Dried out straw mulch is also visible next to the nest as well as a bunch of green parsley leaves.

The photo shows the light-colored beak and part of the dark body and eye of the dark-eyed junko who is sitting on her eggs in her nest. She is nestled under leaves of a parsley plant. Also visible is the wood edge of the raised bed vegetable garden.

Just in time for #EarthDay, a dark-eyed JUNKO has made her nest UNDER the parsley in my raised-bed vegetable garden.

The eggs are very small, ~ 3/4" long.

The nest is beautifully constructed from fine strands.

She flies off when I approach.

I REALLY hope she likes slugs.

Nature is amazing!

🌪️ Just accepted 🌪️ in JAERE:

"The Local Economic Impact of Natural Disasters" by Brigitte Roth Tran (@brothtran.bsky.social) and Daniel J. Wilson

Read it here: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

#EconSky 📈 📉

Very delightful story. But I was shocked by the lead poisoning bit! And chelation therapy for a wild opossum. Wow.

Journal of Economic Perspectives Vol. 39 No. 1 Winter 2025

Our practical guide to shift-share IV is now out in the JEP!

www.aeaweb.org/issues/793

(Ungated version: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/el9yn...)

Read it a long time ago, but really enjoyed Fermat's Enigma.

Very informative webinar on making claims after fires in CA. Helpful too for unaffected property owners concerned about their coverage.

Communicate w/insurance in writing for records
Keep receipts
Be careful accepting FEMA funds if insured
Know your rights
Etc

www.youtube.com/live/rABJ4mn...

This Thursday the Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics kicks off the year with Catherine Wolfram, who will present on:

The Economics of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms for Lower Income Countries

8 AM PST/11 AM EST

Sign up to attend here: www.frbsf.org/news-and-med...

Wildfire smoke leaves harmful gases in floors and walls − air purifiers aren’t enough, new study shows, but you can clean it up Wildfire smoke, even from fires far away, carries potentially harmful gases that, once inside, tend to stick around. An air quality specialist offers an easy, cheap, effective way to deal with it.

Short piece on a study determining how to clean a home that has survived a wildfire but was close enough to be affected by the smoke. #wildfire #smoke

theconversation.com/wildfire-smo...

I would not be surprised if the answer is often that researchers used the data their institutions already had access to. That was the case for me.

Graphic reposted from NWS Los Angeles regarding upcoming PDS Red Flag Warning. The text from the original post reads: "Heads up! Strong, locally damaging, NE/E winds will affect West LA Co. & much of Ventura Co thru Wednesday. Critical fire weather is expected, so PLEASE have multiple ways of getting notifications in case of new fires & prepare ahead of time."

The National Weather Service has *once again* issued an elevated "Particularly Dangerous Situation" (PDS) Red Flag Warning for large portions of Los Angeles & Ventura Counties early Tue though Wed due to return of very strong offshore winds and extremely dry air. #CAwx #CAfire

The site says, "Participants should possess a golf handicap or provide evidence of prior golfing experience to ensure a reasonable pace of play."

How Two Words from a 24-Year-Old Pasadena Climate Specialist Saved Hundreds of Lives - Local News Pasadena Edgar McGregor’s timely Eaton Fire alert: ‘Get out!’

What a wonderful story about @edgarmcgregor.bsky.social

For those who want to jump to the frontier in select areas of economics, the AEA has posted the webcasts of this year’s continuing lectures. Thanks much to @lawrencekatz.bsky.social for his leadership and vision in assembling these lectures.
www.aeaweb.org/conference/w...

As I am now handling papers at AEJ:Policy again, I want to encourage authors of papers that identify partial equilibrium effects to consider (in a rigorous manner) how they relate to policy effects or general equilibrium effects.

Did power lines help start the L.A. fires? What we know. Hundreds of homes in the Altadena area still had power when a fire erupted there, according to a grid-monitoring company and interviews with residents.

wapo.st/3WcSkh0

Here's a schematic I published in this 2021 piece to illustrate how even a modest delay in onset of rainy season in Southern California can dramatically amplify wildfire risk by lengthening seasonal overlap between dry vegetation and strong offshore winds during Oct-Jan. #CAfire

Walked past this today and it looks like a great opportunity for people wanting professional looking headshots. Open tomorrow only. #assa

ASSA 2025 Live-Streamed Sessions By clicking the "Accept" button or continuing to browse our site, you agree to first-party and session-only cookies being stored on your device to enhance site navigation and analyze site performance...

#ASSA2025 livestream sessions available to everyone at

a penguin is holding a pink flag that says i 'm so excited 2025 ALT: a penguin is holding a pink flag that says i 'm so excited 2025

Did everything feel a bit more mathematical this morning? That's because 2025 is a perfect square ✅!

Yes, 2025 is 45² = (1+2+...+9)².

It's the first square year since 1936, and the next one is 2116.

But that's not all… read on ⬇️👀

Awesome, thanks, Aemit!

Any recommendations for good primers on Bayesian methods?

Looking for something that can be consumed within about an hour.

#econsky #bayesian

Here are the first five sets of slides:

01 Introduction: psantanna.com/DiD/01_Intro...

02 Classical 2x2 setup: psantanna.com/DiD/02_two_b...

03 Clustering issues: psantanna.com/DiD/03_Clust...

04 Functional form: psantanna.com/DiD/04_Funct...

05 Covariates: psantanna.com/DiD/05_Covar...

"more than one billion people live in countries where more than 50 percent of their energy comes from hydroelectric plants"

"More than a quarter of all hydroelectric dams are in places with a medium to extreme risk for water scarcity by 2050"

Hydropower Was Ecuador’s Answer to Climate Change. Until the Drought Hit. An extraordinary drought has drained Ecuador’s rivers and reservoirs, leading to power outages of up to 14 hours. Some fear this is the beginning of a larger global crisis.

Powerful article on #drought and #hydroelectricity.

"By harnessing water, not burning oil or gas, to produce electricity, this new energy matrix was supposed to help mitigate the effects of global climate change — not make Ecuador a victim of it."

www.nytimes.com/2024/12/30/w...

I:m not sure how you are coming to that conclusion. The way I read it is that IF the models are correct, the pricing should better reflect the property-level risks under the new plan. If that is the case, then insurance will become more expensive in riskier locations. What's your understanding?