First Pitch/Basket Bets

First Basket 2/21

Mobley, Bane, PJ Washington,

Methods (.1u)

Bridges (NYK) - Other

Zubac - Other

Reaves (LAL) - 3pt

2/20 NBA First Bets

Morant (MEM) +460 (Bane also has good stats here if you want to split 1/2)

Porzingis (BOS) +500 (Again, Paul George also good stats here)

Mobley (CLE) +500

Zubac (LAC)

Murray (DEN) +700

Hayes (LAL) +650

2/13 First Baskets

Rough day yesterday. Anyways. Small slate today

Sengun (HOU) +470
Edwards (MIN) +550

Methods (.1u)
Edwards - 3pt
Sabonis (SAC) - Layup

Method Bets (.1u)
------------------
Wagner (ORL) - layup +1600
Risacher (ATL) - 3pt +2900
Mobley - layup +2300
Harris - Other +1000
Prince (MIL) - 3pt +1700
Murray - 3pt +2400
Reaves (LAL) - 3pt +1700
Zubac (LAC) - Other +1300
Bane - 3pt +1400
Bane - Other +2300

2/12/25 NB FIRST BASKETS

Porzingis (BOS) +480
George (PHI) +500
Mobley (CLE) +450
Harris (DET) +490
Sengun (HOU) +490
Murray (DEN) +650
Washington (DAL) +500
Bane (MEM) +550

✅ Harris +650

FanDuel never opened Harris - Other, or we'd have hit that too. SMH.

at least +2.7u on the day. If Bane hits, thats just lagniappe.

2/11/25 First Baskets

George (PHI) +650
KAT (NYK) +500 (.5u)
Harris (DET) +650
Bane +500

Quickley (TOR) - 3PT +1700 (.1u)
KAT - Layup +2100 (.1u)
Harris - Other +N/A (.1u)

✅ Mobley +600

+2.6u on the day

Even with the few bad days, we've had way more good ones! Up on the year a nice amount so far.

2/10/25 First Baskets

Mobley (CLE) +600
Porzingis (BOS) +450
Washington (DAL) +600
Murray (DEN) +650

SGA (OKC) - Layup +1200 (0.1u)
Washington (DAL) - Other +2500 (0.1u)
Murray (DEN) - 3PT +2500 (0.1u)
Reaves (LAL) - 3PT +1700 (0.1u)

✅ mathurin - layup +1.9u

✅ murray +6.5u

We’re up 2.6u today!

small method bets (0.1u)
Mathurin (IND) - layup +1900
Wagner (ORL) - other +2100
Morant (MEM) - 3pt +2700
Edwards (MIN) - 3pt +1700
Simons (POR) - 3pt +1600
Porzingis (BOS) - 3pt +1000
Booker (PHX) - other +1300
Sabonis (SAC) - layup +1200

2/8/25 First Basket

Washington (DAL) +650 (.5u)
Sengun (HOU) +550 (.5u)
Morant (MEM) +500
Edwards (MIN) +550
Porzingis (BOS) +360
Murray (DEN) +650

2/7/25 First baskets

Mobley (CLE) +500
George (PHI) +550
Adebayo (MIA) +500

GM 9: GSW/ORL

Neither team is great, but Wagner has taken 14 FB shots in 30 games, with 6 makes. 20% isnt a bad FB%. Wagner - 3PT not a bad method play either

GM 10: POR/PHX

PHX is way better at FBs (28 vs 15) and booker has 17 FB atts in 43 games. Best bet here.

GM 6: OKC/MIL

MIL starters not up yet and theyre the only team I'd bet on. If Giannis starts, worth a medium bet.

GM 7: DEN/NOP

DEN is better at FBs and Murray is a good bet here.

GM 8: UTA/IND

Both teams bad, no player stands out.

GM 4: NYK/HOU

HOU is hitting 59% of FBs and Sengun has 24% of FBs. NYK at 46% on FBs, so this is a good play.

GM 5: MIN/SAC

MIN is way better here, and by volume Edwards is best. +360 odds arent great though.

GM 3: MEM/SAS

Spurs win the tip 73% of the time, but only win the FB 38%... crazy. MEM is solid at both, but Bane isnt starting. JJJ has the highest volume of attempts by far so worth a small play. JJJ - Other worth a method play too.

GM1: CHA/WAS

Neither team is great here, and no one really standing out. Maybe Kuzma?

GM 2: DET/ATL

Both teams slightly above average, but both teams also arent starting their top FB scorers. Harris has 15 attempts over 47 starts and at +750 is good enough EV for a small bet.

2/3/25 First Basket Analysis

Lost all bets yesterday marking only our second loss in 2 weeks. It happens.

FB:
Harris (.5u)
JJJ (.5u)
Sengun
Edwards
Giannis? (0.5u)
Murray
Wagner
Booker

Method:
JJJ - Other (.1u)
Wagner - 3pt (.1u)

GM3: TOR/LAC

Both teams are good at FBs, but Powell is out for LAC. Barrett is a solid pick. Maybe a Zubac - Other hedge

GM4: PHI/BOS

Porzingis is a good play here. As is Porzingis - 3pt.

GM5: MIL/MEM

Both teams are good and take lots of FB shots. Bane is still a solid play here.

GM1 : DET/CHI

CHI remains terrible, DET is solid, but no player stands out. Harris has taken twice as many shots as Cade, but they both have 5 FBs. No play.

GM2: CLE/DAL

Both teams are good at FBs but CLE is 40/48 on tips. Given the DAL roster shakeup, Mobley is a good play. PJ on DAL is ok.

2/2/25 First Basket Analysis

Man. Booker took a 3 for the first basket but missed.

Still a good read! Still in the green today.

✅ Bam +600 hits!

Brings us to +1.45u after all bets. Green on the day and PHX still to play.

✅ Wagner

First play hits! +3.25u

Just need one more!

GM 8: SAS / MIA

Both teams take lots of first shots but neither is great at converting. .5u on BAM +600 just for the EV

GM 9: POR / PHX

PHX is better by a large margin at FB, and Booker is still a good play here. Durant might snipe it with a 3 though.

GM 5: MIN / WAS

MIN is way better but Edwards and Randle might be out. No play here

GM 6: OKS / SAC

Both teams < 50%... SGA takes lots of first shots. So does Monk in a much smaller sample size. EV alone I might do .5u on Monk +750 instead of SGA +320

GM 7: NYK / LAL

No one really stands out

GM 1: IND / ATL

Neither team is great, no players stand out

GM 2: UTA / ORL

Franz Wagner is a decent bet here. Maybe with an "Other" method

GM 3: CHA / DEN

Murray is a good play on this one

GM 4: HOU / DEN

HOU has a clear edge winning FBs and Sengun is a great play here.

2/1/25 First Basket Analysis

Wagner (.5u)
Wagner - Other (.1u)
Murray
Sengun
Monk (.5u)
Bam (.5u)
Booker
Booker - 3pt (.1u)
Durant - 3pt (.1u)