I would think Hassett disgraced himself already with the cubic model of Covid deaths. But, he found a way to outdo himself. I don't get it how people like Hassett can look at themselves in the mirror.

Very thoughtful thread. My short summary: for now we can continue trust the numbers from BLS. This because agency employees have the integrity to let the public know about potential interference. We might not be able to protect the process, but we will know when it is compromised.

Except for the whole DOGE thing already putting everybody's jobs in peril?

White House economist calls for 'fresh set of eyes at the BLS' after weak jobs report | Fox Business Video National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett discusses the latest jobs report, the firing of the labor statistics chief and the consumer impact of tariffs on 'Fox News Sunday.'

Hassett went on TV and claimed you can’t trust the economic data anymore because all the recent revisions are partisan.
A bald-faced lie.
Every serious economist still in this administration should resign. They are actively underminding the US economy by lending their credibility to this horse****

The initial estimate of job change for a month is based on the growth or loss of jobs at the businesses that have reported their data. Generally, BLS assumes that the employment situation at businesses that had reported is representative of the situation at those that had not yet reported. BLS continues to collect outstanding reports from the businesses in the sample as it prepares a second and then a third estimate for the month. With each subsequent estimate, more businesses have provided their information. In 2012, the average collection rate at the time of the third estimate for a month was 94.6 percent. (See chart 1.)

Why do the jobs numbers get revised?

our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months

1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly

Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N

www.bls.gov/opub/btn/vol...

With government statistics, it's pretty simple. If you liked the February, March, and April numbers, then you have to accept all the next ones, too. They are produced in the exact same way, it's what the computer spits out, based on the inputs provided. You do not get to cherry pick your stats.

Way to find a silver lining

Tfw the best you might possible, maybe, but not surely say about Israel is that its policies are not as horrible as Hamas.

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

What about it? Based on the beat available data at that point. As facts (data) change, on reevaluates.

Could you maybe speak about these procedures? I think spreading that information is going to be incredibly important now. Also, to be able to understand if the administration is actually interferring with the processes.

Erika McEntarfer is awesome and I hope she stays at BLS a long time

By the way, if you see all your friendly local economists panicking…. it’s because it’s time to panic.

Congrqtulations, you are doing less harm than others? Pat yourselfnon the shoulder. What is your evidence that the BLS has acted inappropriately? You are playing into Trump's hands with your unfounded attacks.

Nonfarm Payroll Employment: Revisions between over-the-month estimates, 1979-present

For people saying these jobs numbers revisions are "unprecedented", here's a record of previous revisions back to 1979. Triple-digit downward revisions aren't common, but they've certainty happened before. www.bls.gov/web/empsit/c...

there was also a contingent of less but still quite serious economists who were saying "He Has Not Done This Yet" specifically so as to be able to point out when precisely it is that "He Has Now Done This", because it matters for how the data are handled in the future to get the date right

Dumb post. The BLS has so far been extremely careful and diligent. All reports are subsequently revised as more and better data becomes available. With todays firing of the BLS commissioner this is no longer assured. Posts like this contribute to weaken our institutions and bark up the wrong tree.

No other way to slice it: this is incredibly fucked up.

The Pigeon (novella) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pig...

I feature often IDEAS because I manage it, but of course another really good RePEc service is EconPapers that has many of the same features. Use the one you prefer to access the same data.

econpapers.repec.org

#RePEc #EconSky

Ich wünsche mir daß die #SGE auf Ihrer USA reise nicht einfach darüber hinweggeht wir die USA in die Illiberalität abdriften. Stichwort: ICE, Everglades-konzentrationslager, etc...

Good news, they 'make it easy from submission to publication'

The unitary executive can set the curriculum at Harvard, order the owners to change the names of professional sports teams, throw his enemies in prison, close a Cabinet-level Department, but he is powerless to ask the sycophants he put in place in the FBI and DOJ to release the Epstein files.

Les garçons au Québec abandonnent l'école secondaire à des taux plus élevés que les filles (pas de surprise) mais aussi dans d'autres régions du Canada. Marie Connolly et moi avons écrit un court article pour CIRANO documentant l'ampleur de ce phénomène.
cirano.qc.ca/fr/sommaires...

Claims:

1/ The small acceleration in continuing claims we've seen since the spring remains small and isn't getting even worse. A bit of a relief.

Interesting piece, would be fascinating to see a follow up on how the rise of combat-experienced war veterans with semi-criminal contacts and links to officers and the FSB might affect intra-elite conflicts in Russia after Putin is gone in the 2030s

Confronted Over Epstein Files, Trump and Bondi Tell Supporters to Move On

You live by conspiracy theories, you die by conspiracy theories 🤷‍♂️ www.nytimes.com/2025/07/08/u...

YouTube video by Anders Puck Nielsen War update – Is Trump helping Russia now?

If Donald Trump wanted to give Russia a helping hand with their summer offensive, it would look exactly like what we are seeing. That is my point in this video, where I also discuss the air war and give a status on the frontline situation. #Ukraine

Even if you try to defend each one of these, it erodes the support for Israel in Europe and the US as well. Ignoring issues of morality, it is an enormous strategic mistake on Israel's part

Starvation in Gaza, aggressive settlements, continued occupation in the West Bank, expanded military presence in Southern Syria, bombing of Iran, Lebanon. And, a se and class status for Palestinian communities in Israel. War crimes committed by members of the IDF.