Javier Blas

US Enjoys a Rare Moment of Oil Supremacy in Iran The shale revolution has given it a freer hand in the Middle East — but that advantage is vulnerable.

WEEKEND LONG-READ: War in the age of American oil imperialism.

The shale revolution has given the White House a freer hand in the Middle East — but that advantage isn’t limitless.

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China’s Coal Industry Has a Big, Dirty Secret Largely unnoticed, an obscure corner of the trade has reached gargantuan proportions.

COLUMN: Largely unnoticed, the Chinese coal-to-chemicals industry has reached gargantuan proportions.

If it was a country, it would rank as the world's 3rd largest coal consumer. That as big implications for climate and energy policy.

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Coconut oil just hit a record high, and your ice cream budget might take the hit.

@javierblas.bsky.social explains why fuel demand in Asia is to blame 🎥

Ice Cream Inflation Arrives Just in Time for Summer Coconut oil, a key ingredient in our favorite sweet treat, is becoming very expensive.

COLUMN: Ice cream inflation is arriving just ahead of the summer. 🍦 🌞 📈

“It's perhaps one of the most bizarre examples of how commodity policy and markets ricochet: The need for cheap fuel in Asia means more expensive ice cream in the West”

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US Oil Output Has Peaked. But Don’t Expect a Rapid Decline. Nothing suggests that a repetition of 2020’s plunge is imminent.

COLUMN: At current prices, US shale oil output has probably peaked.

Just don’t expect a rapid decline like the downturns of 2015 and 2020; the most likely trajectory is an undulating plateau.

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Saudi Arabia Goes Whistling Past the Kazakh Oil Graveyard The kingdom’s attempts to enforce quota discipline on the OPEC+ cartel are doomed to fail.

COLUMN: The four most dangerous words in finance are “this time is different.” History suggests that when Saudi Arabia launches a price war against one of its OPEC+ allies, it ultimately succeeds — but this time really will be different.

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It’s Electricity Realism, Not Climate Denialism Electrifying everything comes with plenty of risks of its own.

COLUMN: It's time to discuss how electrifying everything comes with plenty of risks of its own.

My take on today’s IEA/UK conference on “The future of energy security”, including tidbits from the conference confidential background paper.

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COLUMN: How do you say "drill, baby, drill" in Mandarin?

Call it “zuan ba, bao bei, zuan ba."

China may not have a drilling slogan, but it just lifted oil production to an all-time high, surpassing a peak set 10 years ago.

My @opinion.bloomberg.com column: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Oil Is Cheap But It Isn’t (Yet) a Bargain For the past 18 months and up to the current selloff, I have been indubitably bearish. But the game is starting to change.

COLUNM: COLUMN: Has oil reached a buy-first-and-ask-questions-later moment? Not even close.

Just because prices have fallen to a 4-year low doesn’t mean oil is a bargain. It does mean that it’s cheap. But what’s cheap could become cheaper.

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$50-a-Barrel Oil Is a Problem for US Trade Deficit Shale producers reversed the US oil deficit. Now they face ruin at $50-a-barrel.

COLUMN: The US oil industry has done more to reduce its country’s trade deficit than any other.

Now, President Donald Trump, in theory the champion of “drill, baby, drill,” risks killing it with his obsession with $50-a-barrel oil.

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‘Ghost of Jakarta’ Haunts a Fragile Oil Market Crude prices have yet to reach bottom after the Saudis pushed for production increase.

COLUMN: The economy is slowing down - and Saudi Arabia is hiking oil output to teach a lesson to OPEC cheaters.

Cynical oil investors should be forgiven for having a case of déjà vu: it happened too in 1997, and it ended badly for prices.

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Is an Upside-Down Gas Market Europe's New Normal? High prices have discouraged stocking up to prepare for next winter.

COLUMN: The race to rebuild European natural gas storage has started -- but don't expect anyone rushing.

As it currently stands, the invisible hand of the market doesn't help, and utilities and traders will take a wait-and-see approach.

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Shell’s Revamped Strategy Is a ‘Successful Failure’ The London-listed oil giant hasn’t succeeded in closing a valuation gap to its US peers. Maybe a change of domicile is needed.

COLUMN: In 1970, NASA described the Apollo 13 mission as "successful failure." The same can be said about oil giant Shell's strategy.

Shell has done what it promised — a success. But hasn't closed the valuation gap with US rivals — a failure

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Heathrow Shutdown Exposes Dangers of a Single Point of Failure The closure of Europe’s busiest airport after a fire suggests not paying for adequate back-up systems is a false economy.

Heathrow airport's shutdown suggests not paying for adequate back-up systems is a false economy, writes @javierblas.bsky.social ⬇️

Obviously not adequate ones — or else, the airport would have continue operating!!!

Ignore the Boom in Oil That Isn’t Oil at Your Peril Assessing the market requires more than just counting barrels of crude.

COLUMN: There's a lot more oil than crude in today's petroleum market.

In trying to gauge oil prices, it helps to count the barrels — all of them. And that includes natural gas liquids and condensates. And to know the OPEC+ loopholes.

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The Oil Industry Is Over a Half-Empty Barrel Delight over Trump’s election has passed for executives worried about falling prices.

COLUMN: Despite a ~$30-a-barrel sell-off over the last 18 months, I'm still (somewhat) bearish.

The oil market and the industry face significant headwinds - above all: OPEC+ is boosting output and Trump wants much lower prices.

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Trade Wars Won’t Make American Farming Great Again The US trade war will hurt food exports and increase the agricultural trade deficit.

COLUMN: President Donald Trump won’t make American farming great again.

Quite the opposite: Trump is on a trade wars path that will inflict long lasting damage to rural America.

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Oil is trading today at the same level as 20 years ago.

Even without adjusting by inflation, in mere nominal terms, a barrel of Brent crude cost today as it did in mid-2005. Add on top cumulative inflation, and this is a huge loss of purchasing power for OPEC+

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The ‘Oil Grand Bargain’ Isn’t Mere Fantasy Thinking the unthinkable is useful, especially when the global oil market’s three kings are involved.

COLUMN: After the OPEC+ output hike, the chatter about an “oil grand bargain” isn’t geopolitical fantasy.

The US, Russia and Saudi Arabia may work alongside in the oil market, if not explicitly then tacitly. But can they agree on prices?

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VIDEO COLUMN: Fantasy minerals.

Many people — not least of all, US President Donald Trump — seem convinced Ukraine has a lot of rare earths minerals. It’s utter nonsense.

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The Return of Russian Commodities? They Never Really Left Only natural gas could see a big drop in prices once trade normalizes.

COLUMN: The return of Russian commodities? With the exception of natural gas, they never really left.

Still, the oil and commodities sanctions regime against Russia is already crumbling, in reality if not in law yet.

#Ukraine #Russia @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

Please, read my column and you will see I call that “NATO” paper BS. Significant and very basic errors. Including not knowing what a rare earths are and aren’t

Rare Earths in Ukraine? No, Only Scorched Earth. President Trump’s fixation on extracting elements from the war-torn nation is an illusion.

COLUMN: What Ukraine has is scorched earth; what it doesn’t have is rare earths.

Surprisingly, many people — not least, US President Trump — seem convinced the country has a rich mineral endowment. It’s a folly.

[FREE TO READ]

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Don’t Fall for the Hype About China’s Critical Minerals Controls The dollar value of US imports of tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium is too small to matter.

COLUMN: Don’t call them “critical minerals” and use their old name: “minor metals”

Yes, they are important, but their US dollar value is too small to matter. So don't believe the hype about the repercussions of China's export restrictions

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Europe Is Better Safe Than Sorry on Natural Gas Replenishing stockpiles, however costly, beats gambling that energy costs will decline next winter.

COLUMN: "Hope isn't a strategy"

My @opinion.bloomberg.com column on the European gas market. Replenishing stockpiles this summer is critical.

"Short of going naked into next winter, Europe still needs lots of gas. I’d rather head into winter fully clothed"

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Javier Blas on LinkedIn: #coffee #inflation | 28 comments VIDEO COLUMN: Forgive me for sounding alarmist but, alongside olive oil, coffee is something I cannot live without, particularly since my efforts to live the… | 28 comments on LinkedIn

VIDEO COLUMN: Coffee inflation.

I cannot live without my caffeine fix, particularly since my efforts to clone the looks of George Clooney hooked me into the capsules.

Sadly, my espresso is going to get expensive in 2025. Very expensive.

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Indeed, thank God for it, so it pays my salary.

Why Norway’s Political Crisis Is a European Energy Problem The 30-year-long trend of integration and liberalization of the region’s electricity market is at risk.

COLUMN: Gone with(out) the wind.

The collapse of the Norwegian gov last week is a wake up call that the European electricity market is dysfunctional, prices are too high and the lack of baseload and dispatchable generation is a concern.

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OPEC+ Will Buckle Under Trump's Pressure The president wants a lower oil price. The cartel can save face while complying with his wish.

COLUMN: OPEC+ won't be able to resist Donald Trump's pressure for a lower oil price for long.

By happy coincidence, the cartel doesn’t need to lose face. Pleasing Trump could be presented simply as following the existing plan.

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