Brandon Bohrn

Zollchaos: Was die EU jetzt tun sollte Auf die EU kommt eine Phase der Unsicherheit zu. Sie sollte sich auf weitere Handelskonflikte mit den Amerikanern einstellen und ihre Verwundbarkeiten angehen, rät ein Europaexperte der Bertelsmann St...

Was kommt nach dem Zollurteil des Supreme Court auf die EU zu? Deals sind allenfalls Risikomanagement. Die Aufgaben für die EU: geoökonomisch glaubwürdig werden, sich nicht von Dritten ausspielen lassen, Abhängigkeiten abbauen. Heute in @faznet.bsky.social Weltwirtschaft: www.faz.net/pro/weltwirt...

How should the EU react to Trump’s tariff threats over Greenland? Get out of self-deterrence, launch the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) and focus on concrete levers instead of the next abstract tools debate. This is an explainer how this could work: 1/ 🧵

After USAID: Europe’s Moment to Lead The 2025 closure of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has reshaped the global development landscape and created a strategic inflection point for Europe close to home. With...

New policy brief! Against the backdrop of the recently released US national security strategy, we examine the impact of USAID's closure for 🇪🇺 engagement in the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership. Full publication here: bst-europe.eu/europe-in-th...

The NSS That Could Destroy the NATO Alliance The latest U.S. National Security Strategy doesn’t just sideline Europe—it seeks to reshape its politics, backing nationalist parties and challenging the European Union in ways that could push the tra...

Plus here is Max's piece from @csis.org: www.csis.org/analysis/nss...

Struck by this line in @maxbergmann.bsky.social's latest on the implications of the Trump admin's NSS. This take - implications of US democracy program cuts in Europe - pairs well with our latest policy brief "After USAID: Europe's Moment to Lead", just released today: bst-europe.eu/europe-in-th...

USAID’s closure upended the dev. landscape and decades of transatlantic partnership. But it also opened space for leadership. If 🇪🇺 prepares for longer shift, improves delivery and backs dem. resilience in WB6 and EaP, it can do more than fill the gap—it can strengthen the 🇪🇺 project for the future.

Third: Invest in democratic resilience

Independent media, watchdogs, civic networks—these are the anchors of reform, enlargement and institutional stability.

They’re also the exact actors losing support.

Without them, WB6 and EaP become more vulnerable to dem. backsliding and authorit. actors.

Second: Close Europe’s political and delivery gaps.

A Team Europe approach—aligning EU, national govt's, philanthropic partners—can restore weight and speed.

Further, moving beyond short, annual project contracts toward multi-year partnerships that give trusted civil society groups stability.

So what should Europe do now?

First: Accept this isn’t a temporary US reset.

It’s a generational policy shift.
Even after 2028, the old USAID model is unlikely to return.

Europe must plan not for a pause—but for a new era of transatlantic asymmetry.

Meanwhile, authoritarian competitors and illiberal actors are not waiting.

Russia exploits energy and information dependencies.
China leverages infrastructure finance for influence.

The U.S. withdrawal risks and shifting priorities (NSS) threaten to accelerate these trends.

Europe faces a widening civic vacuum.

🇪🇺 disburses more ODA. True, but its assistance is fragmented, with BRU and natl agencies running parallel systems.

USAID’s strength wasn’t money but speed, flexibility, field presence and pol. weight—now gone. Further, dem. budgets are on decline in 🇪🇺 too.

Civil society in WB6 & EaP felt the impact instantly.

Per a 2025 GMF survey:
• 70% of NGOs delayed or halted activities
• 43% preparing layoffs
• 16% cut staff

Media, human rights rule of law—precisely the sectors hardest to rebuild once they’re gone.

And the impact for Europe close to home?

In 2023, the U.S. provided $370.8 million for democracy, human rights, and governance across the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership.

Almost none of that has been replaced.

“Democracy programs were target number one,” a former USAID officer recalled.

Executive Order 14169 scrapped long-standing programs midstream, fired experienced local staff and shut down USAID’s public databases—erasing decades of institutional memory.

One official put it bluntly: The administration “destroyed first and planned later.”

When the Trump admin dismantled USAID’s operations in 2025, the shock was immediate.

Out of 258 Europe & Eurasia Bureau programs once active across the region, only 11 remained in Ukraine. In Bosnia and Herzegovina? Just one survived.

In particular, democratic support evaporated nearly overnight.

After USAID: Europe’s Moment to Lead The 2025 closure of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has reshaped the global development landscape and created a strategic inflection point for Europe close to home. With...

In 2023, the US disbursed $12.4 billion in ODA to the Western Balkans and Eastern Partnership.

One year later, much of that support has evaporated.

Our new policy brief asks: Why does it matter for Europe — and how should Europe respond? A 🧵 on the main results: bst-europe.eu/europe-in-th...

Most concerning: ‘American diplomacy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy… and unapologetic celebrations of European nations’ individual character… the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism.

The NSS signals 2 big shifts for Europe

1. Europe will handle its own security now. They take the 5% commitment literally.

2. US plans lots of political interference to back the far right. This is what "restoring Europe’s civilizational self-confidence and Western identity" means.

Buckle up.

American diplomacy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations' individual character and history. America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism. Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. We will need a strong Europe to help us successfully compete, and to work in concert with us to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe. America is, understandably, sentimentally attached to the European continent— and, of course, to Britain and Ireland. The character of these countries is also strategically important because we count upon creative, capable, confident, democratic allies to establish conditions of stability and security. We want to work with aligned countries that want to restore their former greatness.

What struck me most on Europe wasn’t the focus on value, freedom of speech etc - again, very similar to Vance’s Munich speech - but how activist it is. This is about directly trying to influence what is going on in Europe:

This document is the most formal expression yet of what the administration has signaled in speeches and interactions over the past ten months. With its release, those signals become policy. It drives the stake even deeper into the heart of the transatlantic relationship as we’ve known it.

My take: Not surprising, the NSS mostly echoes broader WH rhetoric—more ideological worldview than concrete strategy. Europeans should treat as a window into administration’s thinking, no real long-term plan. Policy will remain volatile, reflecting the President’s frequently changing priorities.

The section ends: “Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory… and to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe.”

Despite criticism, the NSS stresses Europe’s importance: “Not only can we not afford to write Europe off—doing so would be self-defeating for what this strategy aims to achieve.”

The document claims European governments aren’t reflecting public sentiment: “A large European majority wants peace, yet that desire is not translated into policy… because of those governments’ subversion of democratic processes.”

On Ukraine, it states: "It is a core interest of the United States to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine… and reestablish strategic stability with Russia.”

On Russia, the NSS calls for U.S. diplomacy to stabilize relations: “Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement… to reestablish conditions of strategic stability across the Eurasian landmass.”

A major theme is cultural revival. The NSS says: “We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation.”

It describes Europe as being reshaped by “migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife” and alleges “censorship of free speech… cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence.”

The NSS argues Europe faces deeper cultural and structural problems, citing “national and transnational regulations that undermine creativity and industriousness” and warning of “the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure.”

Mentions of Europe appear throughout the NSS, but the most detailed — and most provocative — are in a section titled “Promoting European Greatness.” For Europeans, this will be quite a read. Here’s an overview of the key points: