Jeppe H. Olesen

Unsurprisingly, the claims that McLaren had specifically banned Piastri from speaking to Australian media were false.

McLaren have limited both drivers' media interactions, except for the official FIA and team press conferences, to allow them to focus on the race.

Correction: When Drugovich subbed for Alonso in Hungary, it happened on such short notice, that the deadline for notifying the FIA about FP1 outings had passed, and the session did not count.

Aston Martin are required to run two rookies in Abu Dhabi FP1 to avoid penalties.

What he does have is backing. The Shields family owns Advance Construction Group, a company which posts a turnover of £300M per year, and the family itself has an estimated £200-400M net worth.

4/4

And on performance alone, he wouldn’t be in the frame: he hasn’t scored a single point in F2 or F3 over the last couple of seasons.

3/4

Aston Martin doesn’t need to run him for regulatory reasons. They’ve already done three rookie outings this season, and Jak Crawford, their academy driver, covers the final mandatory outing in Abu Dhabi. Shields is completely optional.

2/4

If you're wondering how Cian Shields landed an FP1 with Aston Martin - It’s almost certainly about the money.

Most FP1 outings these days are paid for by the driver, their partners, or an engine manufacturer and Shields fits that pattern perfectly.

1/4 🧵

And for the nerds, you can try it out yourself and check out the inner workings here: github.com/jeppeolesen/...

Ran my little script again after the Qatar GP, and these are the updated probabilities of each driver taking the title next weekend. Difference indicated is to the probabilities after the sprint.

Norris: ~60% (-14%)
Verstappen: ~34% (+14%)
Piastri: ~6% (No change)

Rumours about the FIA currently investigating the McLarens are wholly unfounded.

The FIA have already released the post race scrutineering documents, and the checks include passed plank wear tests for both Piastri and Norris.

I sat we let Alonso win one, just because.

Norris has 8 P2s, not 6 😅

GitHub - jeppeolesen/f1-championship-odds: This script calculates the probability of each driver winning the championship based on current standings, recent performance, and reliability metrics. This script calculates the probability of each driver winning the championship based on current standings, recent performance, and reliability metrics. - jeppeolesen/f1-championship-odds

And just in case you want to verify my method or try it out yourself: github.com/jeppeolesen/...

Being the nerd that I am, I actually built a model to help me find out what my predictions are 😅

Logically and mathematically, Norris will take it.

But I am a sucker for a good comeback story, so seeing Verstappen nab it would be absolute, top tier drama.

If any of them end up equal on points after Abu Dhabi, it will be decided on countback, where the current standings are:

Norris: 7 P1s, 6 P2s, 2 P3s
Verstappen: 7 P1s, 4 P2s, 2 P3s
Piastri: 7 P1s, 3 P2s, 4 P3s

3/3

So, that means:

If NOR finishes anywhere ahead of VER and PIA, he is Champion.

If NOR finishes anywhere on the podium, he is Champion.

If VER wins, NOR has to finish P4 or lower for VER to be Champion.

If PIA wins, NOR has to finish P6 or lower for PIA to be Champion.

2/3

The Championship Maths are super simple this week. One race to go, that will decide it all.

This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris in Abu Dhabi to take the title:

Verstappen: 12.0 points
Piastri: 16.0 points

1/3 🧵

If you want to play around with it yourself, you can find the code here: github.com/jeppeolesen/...

Ran my little F1 championship odds model again after the Qatar sprint. These are the updated numbers:

Norris: ~74% (+6%)
Verstappen: ~20% (-8%)
Piastri: ~6% (+2%)

Updates submitted for the Qatar GP:

VCARB
- Front wing: Gurney option for front flap

McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull, Mercedes, Aston Martin, Alpine, Haas, Williams, Sauber:
No updates submitted.

I don't think so, no. They'll lower prices if they have to, but it's going to be out of necessity to fill the stands. And I think this holds true for at lot of the other races as well.

Formula 1 has a Las Vegas Sized Problem Las Vegas delivers spectacle, but Formula 1 still can’t find real demand or identity there. A glittering race without the soul to match.

Las Vegas puts on an incredible show, but does it actually work as a Formula 1 race? Ticket price drops, odd podium ceremonies, and manufactured hype makes me question it.

Read my take on why F1 has a Las Vegas sized problem 👇

raceweekrecap.com/2025/11/24/f...

For the nerds:

Updated the model after McLaren’s double DSQ and refined how it treats DSQs and DNFs. The numbers shifted. A lot.

Title odds after Las Vegas:

Norris: ~68%
Verstappen: ~28%
Piastri: ~4%

With two weekends left, one of which is a sprint, there is a theoretical average of 29.0 points available per weekend for the rest of the season.

2/2

Both McLarens are disqualified from the Las Vegas GP, so lets redo the maths:

This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:

Piastri: 12.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 12.0 points per weekend

1/2 🧵

I put together a small script that calculates the percentage chances for the remaining contenders to become champion.

After today, these are the odds:

Norris: ~96%
Piastri: ~3%
Verstappen: ~1%

With two weekends left, one of which is a sprint, there is a theoretical average of 29.0 points available per weekend for the rest of the season.

Verstappen keeps the hope alive, and Piastri slips further.

This is how many points the rest of the grid need to gain on Norris per weekend after Las Vegas to take the title:

Piastri: 16.0 points per weekend
Verstappen: 21.0 points per weekend

1/2 🧵

Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin, Alpine, Haas, Williams:
No updates submitted.

2/2

Vegas timings always throw me off, but here are the updates for this weekend:

McLaren:
- Front wing: Trimmed Front Wing Flap
- Rear wing: Reduced Chord Rear Wing Flap

Red Bull:
- Front wing: Front wing flaps with reduced cambers and chords

VCARB:
- Rear wing: Updated rear wing flap profile

1/2 🧵