Dr. Alysa Orbits (Obertas)'s Avatar

Dr. Alysa Orbits (Obertas)

@astroalysa.bsky.social

Queer & disabled astronomer formerly at UofT & CITA. Dynamics, planets, & ballet. Posts reflect opinions of Sailor Galaxia, not my employer. She/her πŸ‘©β€πŸ”¬πŸ’ƒ

889 Followers  |  297 Following  |  312 Posts  |  Joined: 28.04.2023
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Posts by Dr. Alysa Orbits (Obertas) (@astroalysa.bsky.social)

The earlier seasons of GOT have very big moments, but there's care and attention building up to them.

The later seasons just feel like a race to the big moments for the sake of big moments because GOT is a show about big moments.

23.02.2026 05:44 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I feel like it signals that the Dorne plot is just an annoying loose end and it doesn't matter where they are, so just Dorne it is.

23.02.2026 05:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Something very minor right at the start of the season: the opening sequence map just says "Dorne". Each prior season actually shows specific places when somewhere new is introduced.

23.02.2026 05:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

On a related note, I've been doing a rewatch of A Game of Thrones and I forgot how good the earlier seasons are. I'm on season 5 now though and oofs the cracks are showing.

23.02.2026 05:44 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Re-read the Dunk & Egg novellas this weekend though and ahhhh I forgot how much I love the Mystery Knight.

23.02.2026 05:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

But I first read dance almost 15 years ago. I can't believe it's been that long. Mixed emotions about getting all excited about this world when I don't think I'll find out how it ends.

23.02.2026 05:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Loved the show. A few complaints, but overall really great writing, acting, directing, etc. They definitely put in a lot of work and it paid off. So many feelings about the characters!

23.02.2026 05:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms has me back into asoiaf and I have so many mixed feelings

23.02.2026 05:37 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Pretending season 8 didn't happen though so it's actually worth something

23.02.2026 05:27 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Don't worry Dunk, I fully believe that one day the Realm will have need of your foot!

23.02.2026 05:26 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

"The thing is, even if you're just thinking in terms of fiscal value, having gone through a degree program and being able to put it on your resumΓ©/CV isn't the most significant return on your investment: the way you have further developed your mind is."

09.12.2025 20:05 β€” πŸ‘ 425    πŸ” 89    πŸ’¬ 15    πŸ“Œ 15
Preview
Loeb’s Behavior is Reckless I’ve largely ignored Loeb for the past few weeks. When he started in on his 3I/ATLAS thing, there were plenty of mainstream media outlets willing to give his claims a wide and credulous platform, and ...

Some have argued to me strongly that even if Loeb is wrong, he’s getting people interested in 3I/ATLAS and that’s a good thing for science.

But Loeb isn't just wrong, he's recklessly following an old playbook that got 39 people killed in 1997.

sites.psu.edu/astrowright/...

07.12.2025 17:52 β€” πŸ‘ 224    πŸ” 55    πŸ’¬ 16    πŸ“Œ 20

Oh and my new player's wife cheated on me and one of my sons is probably a bastard. Can't win them all.

08.12.2025 17:17 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Going to be a mess when I play tonight, though. Factions always pop up with a new ruler and a crusade is about to start to remove Norse rulers from England (I want them there).

08.12.2025 17:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

All I need now is a bunch of coin and 40 more realms to make an empire, but my grandson is young and military focused so I think that might be doable in his lifetime!

08.12.2025 17:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I ended up creating the kingdoms (there were actually two that I'd have lost!) and enacting voting right before I died, so now my grandson (current player) got all three kingdoms and only lost 3 counties :) He can't even keep all 6 he inherited, so I have to give one away.

08.12.2025 17:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

There's now a release date and news about pre-ordering for Cloudy With a Chance of Starships!

bsky.app/profile/seve...

08.12.2025 15:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

There's now a release date and news about pre-ordering for Cloudy With a Chance of Starships!

bsky.app/profile/seve...

08.12.2025 15:21 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Cloudy with a Chance of Starships An entertaining tour of the seemingly simple formula guiding the search for extraterrestrial intelligence

hi folks! CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF STARSHIPS has a release date: August 4, 2026!

it also has a link! you can sign up here to receive a notification when the pre-order goes live ✨

press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

07.12.2025 14:36 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Most Rocky Sub-Neptunes are Molten: Mapping the Solidification Shoreline for Gas Dwarf Exoplanets Sub-Neptunes are the most common type of detected exoplanet, yet their observed masses and radii are degenerate with several interior structures. One possibility is that sub-Neptunes have silicate/iro...

Paper day! A new paper on existence of subNeptune magma oceans, arising from a collaboration between Cambridge and my group. Lead author Robb Calder is Oli Shorttle's doctoral student. subNeptune Magma Oceans are getting to be a hot topic! arxiv.org/abs/2512.05816

08.12.2025 10:44 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm honestly tempted to find ways to kill off sons. My current guy (who's 68 and probably about to die) had 6!!! I regret not save scumming for daughters.

08.12.2025 00:31 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Eventually, I'll have the option to switch to primogeniture inheritance, which is 100000x better. But that won't be for ages

08.12.2025 00:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

In ck3 it's called partition and I hate it. I'm Norse, so I could immediately enact elective monarchy, but some of my titles still get split up. I'm losing a kingdom I didn't even create yet (boo) to another son.

08.12.2025 00:28 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I have never had a good time with player heirs who've got intrigue education. They always make problems for me.

08.12.2025 00:21 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

One of the people he killed was my son, but I think that was for the best because it helps with dividing up land when I die.

08.12.2025 00:20 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Although I think it's a blessing because this guy was my player heir and I did NOT want to play as him. His younger brother is so much better.

08.12.2025 00:19 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Screenshot from Crusader Kings 3. Loading saved games

Executed grandson 
Confront grandson 
Why is my grandson murdering people 
Feast
War won

Screenshot from Crusader Kings 3. Loading saved games Executed grandson Confront grandson Why is my grandson murdering people Feast War won

A story in my save files (read from bottom up)

08.12.2025 00:19 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

We remember them always.

Geneviève Bergeron
Hélène Colgan
Nathalie Croteau
Barbara Daigneault
Anne-Marie Edward
Maud Haviernick
Barbara Klucznik-Widajewicz Maryse Laganière
Maryse Leclair
Anne-Marie Lemay
Sonia Pelletier
Michèle Richard
Annie St-Arneault
Annie Turcotte

06.12.2025 10:59 β€” πŸ‘ 56    πŸ” 34    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
How Conflict Aversion Can Enable Authoritarianism:An Evolutionary Dynamics ApproachChad M. TopazDecember 6, 2025AbstractWe use evolutionary game theory to examine how conflict-averse centrism can unintentionallyfacilitate authoritarian success in polarized political conflicts.  Many such conflicts are asym-metric:  authoritarian  actors  can  employ  norm-breaking  or  coercive  tactics,  while  democraticresistance faces stronger constraints on what counts as normatively acceptable behavior.  Yetformal models typically treat opposing sides symmetrically and rarely examine conflict-aversebehavior.  Drawing on empirical research on protest backlash, civility norms, and authoritarianresilience, we model these dynamics as a three-strategy evolutionary game in which resistance,authoritarianism, and conflict-averse centrism interact under replicator dynamics.  This frame-work yields two distinct outcomesβ€”cyclic resurgence of authoritarian strength through a hete-roclinic cycle and a stable centrist–authoritarian coalition that excludes resistanceβ€”dependingon how actors respond to confrontation.  The analysis shows how payoff differences can reor-ganize long-run dynamics in asymmetric conflicts.  Our contribution is to demonstrate how anestablished dynamical framework, combined with empirically grounded behavioral assumptions,clarifies the strategic conditions under which conflict aversion can diminish the effectiveness ofdemocratic resistance.

How Conflict Aversion Can Enable Authoritarianism:An Evolutionary Dynamics ApproachChad M. TopazDecember 6, 2025AbstractWe use evolutionary game theory to examine how conflict-averse centrism can unintentionallyfacilitate authoritarian success in polarized political conflicts. Many such conflicts are asym-metric: authoritarian actors can employ norm-breaking or coercive tactics, while democraticresistance faces stronger constraints on what counts as normatively acceptable behavior. Yetformal models typically treat opposing sides symmetrically and rarely examine conflict-aversebehavior. Drawing on empirical research on protest backlash, civility norms, and authoritarianresilience, we model these dynamics as a three-strategy evolutionary game in which resistance,authoritarianism, and conflict-averse centrism interact under replicator dynamics. This frame-work yields two distinct outcomesβ€”cyclic resurgence of authoritarian strength through a hete-roclinic cycle and a stable centrist–authoritarian coalition that excludes resistanceβ€”dependingon how actors respond to confrontation. The analysis shows how payoff differences can reor-ganize long-run dynamics in asymmetric conflicts. Our contribution is to demonstrate how anestablished dynamical framework, combined with empirically grounded behavioral assumptions,clarifies the strategic conditions under which conflict aversion can diminish the effectiveness ofdemocratic resistance.

Ok activists and nerds... I promised that I was SO MAD ABOUT HOW CONFLICT-AVOIDANT "CENTRISTS" UNDERMINE RESISTANCE TO FASCISM that I would resort to math to make this point and that I would write it up in a paper. So, here ya go. Share, enjoy, and get up on that soapbox. osf.io/preprints/so...

06.12.2025 12:50 β€” πŸ‘ 33    πŸ” 10    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Academic freedom is applicable to anyone with a teaching role. You can’t ask graduate students to teach, advise students, and evaluate student work with granting them academic freedom. The recent debacle at OU and a previous one in the School of Social Work at UT Austin illustrate this.

06.12.2025 12:46 β€” πŸ‘ 76    πŸ” 27    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1