Ken Mathis Lohatepanont

"Not a Lame Duck But a Mouse" Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul makes his policy declaration

In his policy declaration, PM Anutin made a clear break with the previous Pheu Thai government, demonstrating that he didn't intend to be just a lame duck carrying out policy continuity. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/not-a-lame...

Analyzing Initial Polling Results in the Anutin Era People's Party slumps; Anutin rises; Pheu Thai still yet to recover

We have some of the first polling results since Bhumjaithai took power, showing a big slump for the People's Party and a major boost for Anutin. Analysis of how the numbers have moved: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/analyzing-...

The Road Towards a New Constitution Bhumjaithai fires the starting gun

The agreement between Bhumjaithai and the People's Party requires that Prime Minister Anutin begins the process of creating a new constitution. What does this entail? A summary here: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/the-road-t...

The Anutin Cabinet is Confirmed Breakdown by party and some observations

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's cabinet was formally announced today. Some observations: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/the-anutin...

Rupture and Renewal Major changes in the United Thai Nation and Democrat parties

This week, the Coffee Parliament examines some major changes in the United Thai Nation and Democrat parties, which could impact Bhumjaithai's opportunity for growth. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/rupture-an...

Bhumjaithai's Big Technocratic Bet Prime Minister Anutin welcomes outside experts to his cabinet

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has unveiled several "outsider appointments" to his prospective cabinet.

In this newsletter, I look at the historical context of cabinet technocrats in Thailand and unpack Bhumjaithai's strategy: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/bhumjaitha...

Anutin Charnvirakul Elected Prime Minister A profile of Thailand's 32nd prime minister and his Bhumjaithai Party

Thailand has a new prime minister.

My profile of Anutin Charnvirakul, recently elected as Thailand's 32nd PM, and his Bhumjaithai Party. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/anutin-cha...

Out of Cards Vote for PM scheduled for September 5th

With a vote to select the next prime minister of Thailand scheduled for tomorrow, it looks like Pheu Thai may now be out of cards. Barring a last minute shock, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul increasingly looks like an inevitability. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/out-of-cards

Not any easier to get anything done when you're awake for it all...

Anutin is Almost Prime Minister. Can Pheu Thai Stop Him? We're entering uncharted waters for Thai politics

Anutin Charnvirakul is almost Thailand's 32nd prime minister. In a bid to stop him, Pheu Thai has requested a dissolution of parliament, sparking a constitutional crisis.

We're entering uncharted waters in Thai politics. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/anutin-is-...

Government Formation Update: A Day of Twists Political maneuvering continues

What is Pheu Thai doing with Chaikasem Nitisiri? When will the People's Party announce their decision? Will Phumtham dissolve parliament? Are we about to see a knight in shining armor?

Today's Coffee Parliament update: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/government...

Pheu Thai Makes an Offer to the People's Party An attempt to let bygones be bygones

Today's update: Pheu Thai has also accepted all of the People's Party conditions for a confidence and supply arrangement. But it looks like they're facing an uphill task to form a new government. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/pheu-thai-...

It's hard to keep up at this point!

Bhumjaithai's New Coalition Emerges Dark blue PM, kaleidoscope government, orange guarantor

An alternative coalition led by Bhumjaithai has emerged.

It's a political innovation: fueled by renegade factions and likely dependent on a confidence and supply agreement with the People's Party. We've never seen a coalition like this in Thailand.
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/bhumjaitha...

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is Out. Who Will Succeed Her? Four possible scenarios

Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been removed by the Constitutional Court. Here, I lay out four potential scenarios on what comes next. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/paetongtar...

Will Twenty Baht Transit Fares Happen? Pheu Thai's 14-year old policy pledge still faces challenges

Pheu Thai first promised a 20 baht flat rail transit fare in Bangkok in 2011. It's now 2025: will it ever happen? www.coffeeparliament.com/p/will-twent...

Will She Stay or Will She Go? Speculation intensifies that the Prime Minister could resign

There's been a lot of speculation recently that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra could resign before the Constitutional Court issues a ruling on her ethics case. Will she stay or will she go? www.coffeeparliament.com/p/will-she-s...

Filling the Conservative Party Gap An electoral niche has no perfect fit for now

The Coffee Parliament today takes a look at how one big segment of Thailand's electorate currently lacks any party that meets their needs. Where will Thailand's conservatives go at the next election? www.coffeeparliament.com/p/filling-th...

The Walls Are Closing In The Shinawatras await three rulings from the courts

In today's newsletter, I look at the three court cases that the Shinawatras are facing, all of which could be game-changers for Thai politics. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/the-walls-...

Can Section 144 Wipe Out Parliament? Another point of uncertainty in Thailand

A Thai constitutional clause regulating how legislators can influence spending led to the Deputy Speaker being removed last week. This same clause could also lead to the removal of most of Thailand's parliamentarians:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/can-sectio...

Thailand and Cambodia Agrees on Ceasefire Preliminary thoughts

Thailand and Cambodia has agreed to a ceasefire. Some preliminary thoughts here: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/thailand-a...

Ceasefire Talks Between Thailand and Cambodia Scheduled What we know so far

Ceasefire talks scheduled between Acting Thai PM Phumtham and Cambodian PM Hun Manet in Malaysia: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/ceasefire-...

On the "Domestic Rivalry Theory" and the "International Family Feud Theory" Examining the origins of the Thailand-Cambodia clash

Some are seeking to explain the origins of the Thai-Cambodia clash by invoking domestic rivalries in Thai politics. My thoughts on why this theory makes little sense, and why the conflict is far better explained by an international family feud: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/on-the-dom...

Military Conflict with Cambodia Thai civilian areas along border targeted by Cambodia

Today, open conflict broke out between Thailand and Cambodia, with Thai civilian areas coming under bombardment. My recap: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/military-c...

"Meddling in Everything" On the liabilities of "Sor Tor Ror"

In recent months, "Sor Tor Ror" ("meddling in everything") has emerged as an increasingly popular nickname for Thaksin Shinawatra. But what has this meddling produced so far?
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/meddling-i...

Calm Before the Storm We have been able to take a bit of a breather this past week at The Coffee Parliament after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension, because Thai politics has now entered what I think of as...

In Thailand, a calm before the storm: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/calm-befor...

Asialink Insights | The decline of the Shinawatras promises new political era for Thailand Advice and services for business, education, diplomacy and the arts

I wrote about how the political dominance of Pheu Thai may now be in terminal decline, creating opportunities for new alliances in Thailand's tripolar political order. asialink.unimelb.edu.au/diplomacy/de...

Is a Prayut Comeback Possible? It's no longer far-fetched, but challenges abound

Speculation of a potential comeback by former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is rising, given Paetongtarn Shinawatra's dire situation. I take a look at the possibility of a third Prayut government here:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/is-a-prayu...

Paetongtarn Shinawatra Suspended as Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongrueangkit takes over as acting PM

Quick analysis: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is temporarily suspended pending final court verdict www.coffeeparliament.com/p/paetongtar...

Pheu Thai's Polling Collapse And the protest on June 28th

Pheu Thai's numbers in the latest NIDA poll is dire: for the first time it is in third place. The Hun Sen voice call leaks appear to have a real impact on voters' calculations. My analysis of the polling results:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/pheu-thais...