Ken Mathis Lohatepanont

Can Section 144 Wipe Out Parliament? Another point of uncertainty in Thailand

A Thai constitutional clause regulating how legislators can influence spending led to the Deputy Speaker being removed last week. This same clause could also lead to the removal of most of Thailand's parliamentarians:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/can-sectio...

Thailand and Cambodia Agrees on Ceasefire Preliminary thoughts

Thailand and Cambodia has agreed to a ceasefire. Some preliminary thoughts here: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/thailand-a...

Ceasefire Talks Between Thailand and Cambodia Scheduled What we know so far

Ceasefire talks scheduled between Acting Thai PM Phumtham and Cambodian PM Hun Manet in Malaysia: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/ceasefire-...

On the "Domestic Rivalry Theory" and the "International Family Feud Theory" Examining the origins of the Thailand-Cambodia clash

Some are seeking to explain the origins of the Thai-Cambodia clash by invoking domestic rivalries in Thai politics. My thoughts on why this theory makes little sense, and why the conflict is far better explained by an international family feud: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/on-the-dom...

Military Conflict with Cambodia Thai civilian areas along border targeted by Cambodia

Today, open conflict broke out between Thailand and Cambodia, with Thai civilian areas coming under bombardment. My recap: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/military-c...

"Meddling in Everything" On the liabilities of "Sor Tor Ror"

In recent months, "Sor Tor Ror" ("meddling in everything") has emerged as an increasingly popular nickname for Thaksin Shinawatra. But what has this meddling produced so far?
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/meddling-i...

Calm Before the Storm We have been able to take a bit of a breather this past week at The Coffee Parliament after Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension, because Thai politics has now entered what I think of as...

In Thailand, a calm before the storm: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/calm-befor...

Asialink Insights | The decline of the Shinawatras promises new political era for Thailand Advice and services for business, education, diplomacy and the arts

I wrote about how the political dominance of Pheu Thai may now be in terminal decline, creating opportunities for new alliances in Thailand's tripolar political order. asialink.unimelb.edu.au/diplomacy/de...

Is a Prayut Comeback Possible? It's no longer far-fetched, but challenges abound

Speculation of a potential comeback by former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha is rising, given Paetongtarn Shinawatra's dire situation. I take a look at the possibility of a third Prayut government here:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/is-a-prayu...

Paetongtarn Shinawatra Suspended as Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongrueangkit takes over as acting PM

Quick analysis: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is temporarily suspended pending final court verdict www.coffeeparliament.com/p/paetongtar...

Pheu Thai's Polling Collapse And the protest on June 28th

Pheu Thai's numbers in the latest NIDA poll is dire: for the first time it is in third place. The Hun Sen voice call leaks appear to have a real impact on voters' calculations. My analysis of the polling results:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/pheu-thais...

Cabinet Reshuffle; Hun Sen Attacks; Chaikasem Nitisiri's Readiness to be PM A busy week in Thai politics

My recap of some of this week's latest updates in Thai politics: the rumored final cabinet reshuffle lineup, Hun Sen's continued attacks on the Shinawatras, and Chaikasem Nitisiri's positioning. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/cabinet-re...

Why Paetongtarn's Premiership is Still in Danger Will the Constitutional Court remove her from office?

In this newsletter, I discuss the upcoming legal cases and street demonstrations against PM Paetongtarn. She's very much still in the danger zone. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/why-paeton...

Thank you for the shout-out!

Paetongtarn's Coalition Stabilizes for Now Against the odds, her premiership survives — at least in the short term

The coalition led by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has, against the odds, survived for now. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/paetongtar...

Thank you for writing these reviews — I think they're great! You do such a good job of making an entire week of news digestible.

United Thai Nation Pushes for a Change in Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra faces a choice

My summary of today's state of play: the United Thai Nation Party is taking a gamble and asking PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra to quit.

Chaikasem Nitisiri and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga are the only two viable coalition candidates.

Will Pheu Thai accept?
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/united-tha...

In a dramatic day in Thai politics, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's leaked phone call with Hun Sen has brought her government to the brink of collapse. A new, uncertain era beckons.

Full analysis here: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/prime-mini...

Bhumjaithai's Three Options Could the Pheu Thai government collapse?

Bhumjaithai reportedly received an ultimatum: relinquish the Interior Ministry. What are the party's options now, and could this lead to the collapse of the Pheu Thai coalition? www.coffeeparliament.com/p/bhumjaitha...

Strange — and estranged — political bedfellows in Southeast Asia Southeast Asian politics have long been defined by power-sharing arrangements between rivals, but across the region many of these fragile coalitions are beginning to unravel

As the EAF editors note, Southeast Asia's toxic alliances are "increasingly strained by diverging ambitions, fragile legitimacy and unresolved rivalries." eastasiaforum.org/2025/06/16/s...

Thailand’s grand political compromise cracks under pressure Facing increasingly complex economic challenges in Thailand and abroad, the Pheu Thai Party will have little room to manoeuvre in its fragile coalition for the foreseeable future

My article on how Thailand's grand compromise is cracking under pressure is the lead article on East Asia Forum this week.
eastasiaforum.org/2025/06/15/t...

Two Civil Wars Inside the Cabinet A fight over the Interior Ministry, and a renegade faction declares war on the United Thai Nation Party's leaders

We're currently watching two major conflicts within the cabinet: one clash between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai over the Interior Ministry, and another intra-party dispute in the United Thai Nation Party. A summary: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/two-civil-...

Thai Government Fails to Meet the Nationalist Moment Conflict with Cambodia averted for now, but Pheu Thai clearly loses the war for hearts and minds

Although the border conflict with Cambodia has de-escalated for now, Pheu Thai clearly failed to win over the public amid a surge in nationalist sentiment.
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/thai-gover...

Clash with Cambodia and Pheu Thai's Trust Deficit Why the border tensions are hurting perceptions of the government

In today's post, I discuss the mounting criticism the Thai government has received over its handling of the border tensions with Cambodia, and why Pheu Thai has a trust deficit when it comes to this issue.
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/clash-with...

The 2026 Budget Bill Passes First Reading And an update on Bhumjaithai-Pheu Thai conflict

The FY2026 Budget Bill passed its first reading in the House of Representatives yesterday — here's a recap of the debate in parliament. Also, a brief update on BJT-PT relations.
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/the-2026-b...

"Sixty Days of Danger" Another turbulent season for Thai politics?

With the Shinawatras facing an increasingly dangerous legal outlook, coupled with intensifying investigations into Senate election collusion, Thai politics has entered what some analysts call "sixty days of danger." Will the government emerge unscathed?
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/sixty-days...

An Observer's Guide to Thai Politics Getting started with watching Thai current affairs

Thai politics can feel like a very complicated business. For someone new to watching Thailand, it can be a bit overwhelming.

I've written an observer's guide to Thai politics to help get you started: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/an-observe...

Kla Tham Dares to Dream Big Captain Thammanat bets on all politics being local

"Local politics is the root of larger politics," says Thammanat. Can this strategy take him to his goal of 100 MPs? And what impact will his party's expanding influence have on Thai politics? www.coffeeparliament.com/p/kla-tham-o...

Looking Beyond "Why Nations Fail" Thailand needs more than just AJR's "mythologized narratives"

"Why Nations Fail" has been getting a lot of attention in Thailand. But getting Thailand out of the middle income trap will need us to build a national conversation that goes beyond what AJR offers. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/looking-be...

The Coffee Parliament | Thai Politics and Policy | Ken Lohatepanont | Substack What's brewing in Thai politics and beyond — with @kenlmathis. Click to read The Coffee Parliament | Thai Politics and Policy, by Ken Lohatepanont, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

Update: The Coffee Parliament newsletter has its own domain name now!

www.coffeeparliament.com