Ken Mathis Lohatepanont

Anutin "Returns Power to the People" A new election will be held in early 2026

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's request to dissolve parliament has been granted. An election will be held within 45-60 days.

A look at what brought us here and where we stand:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/anutin-ret...

Where the Parties Stand: Analyzing NIDA's Regional Polling Polls from five regions help us see the pre-campaign baseline

I've written up an analysis of where Thailand's main parties stand on the eve of an election campaign, based on the results of a wave of NIDA regional polling. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/where-the-...

The Death of an Old Party Chart Thai Pattana's MPs go to Bhumjaithai

The Chart Thai Party and its reincarnation could be considered Thailand's second-oldest surviving party. Yet it now appears to be closing up shop.

I take a look at the party's history and why its leaders has decided not to bet on its future: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/the-death-...

Floods Overwhelm the South — and the Authorities Disaster preparedness and relief efforts come under fire

Authorities both local and central have come under fire for their response to the catastrophic floods in Southern Thailand. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/floods-ove...

Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai: A Tale of Two Election Strategies Will the two parties swap places?

Bhumjaithai's nomination of two "outsider" technocrats as prime minister candidates signals a major party rebrand. Pheu Thai, on the other hand, might double-down on its family-first image. Some thoughts on a tale of two election strategies.
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/bhumjaitha...

No Confidence in a No-Confidence Debate The People's Party is in a trap of its own making

The Anutin government may face a vote of no confidence before the end of the year. But as the party that made this government possible, how will the People's Party react?

My piece on the unenviable position the PP finds itself in: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/no-confide...

AI and the Temptation of "Educational Populism" Calls for "mindful AI use" won't be enough

All Thai university students now have free access to Google AI Pro. This prompted some reflection on how politicians need to also think carefully about how to prevent "cognitive offloading":
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/ai-and-the...

Anutin's International Debut New prime minister makes deals at ASEAN and APEC summits

Anutin made his debut on the international stage last week at the ASEAN and APEC summits. A summary of his diplomatic efforts: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/anutins-in...

Grand Compromise or Grand Damage to Thailand’s Party System? | FULCRUM Thailand has been caught in a series of political compromises made between strange bedfellows. If this continues, voters will become more cynical about the political system’s ability to deliver out…

Thailand now finds itself in a situation where virtually all the major parties have entered into toxic alliances with supposed enemies.

fulcrum.sg/grand-compro...

"She Is My Smile" In memory of Her Majesty Queen Sirikit The Queen Mother

King Rama IX was once asked by a journalist why he does not usually smile. Gesturing to Queen Sirikit, he said: “She is my smile.” The King and Queen stood side by side through a reign that transformed Thailand. A tribute to the late Queen Mother: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/she-is-my-...

Can Anutin Win? What we've learned from his first month

If PM Anutin wants to keep his job after the next election, Bhumjaithai will likely need to double its seats.

I take a look at what Bhumjaithai's playbook may be and whether they're on track to achieve their goals:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/can-anutin...

The Democrat Old Guard Mounts a Comeback Abhisit Vejjajiva returns as Democrat leader

After a 6-year hiatus, former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva made a comeback as the leader of the Democrat Party. Can he reverse the fortunes of an almost 80-year old party in what had looked like terminal decline?
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/the-democr...

A National Vote on National Security The government pushes a referendum on border agreements with Cambodia

The new government has proposed holding a referendum on MOUs 43 and 44, highly technical agreements with Cambodia on demarcating the border. This has triggered controversy over whether such a vote would be wise.

My overview: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/a-national...

"Not a Lame Duck But a Mouse" Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul makes his policy declaration

In his policy declaration, PM Anutin made a clear break with the previous Pheu Thai government, demonstrating that he didn't intend to be just a lame duck carrying out policy continuity. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/not-a-lame...

Analyzing Initial Polling Results in the Anutin Era People's Party slumps; Anutin rises; Pheu Thai still yet to recover

We have some of the first polling results since Bhumjaithai took power, showing a big slump for the People's Party and a major boost for Anutin. Analysis of how the numbers have moved: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/analyzing-...

The Road Towards a New Constitution Bhumjaithai fires the starting gun

The agreement between Bhumjaithai and the People's Party requires that Prime Minister Anutin begins the process of creating a new constitution. What does this entail? A summary here: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/the-road-t...

The Anutin Cabinet is Confirmed Breakdown by party and some observations

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's cabinet was formally announced today. Some observations: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/the-anutin...

Rupture and Renewal Major changes in the United Thai Nation and Democrat parties

This week, the Coffee Parliament examines some major changes in the United Thai Nation and Democrat parties, which could impact Bhumjaithai's opportunity for growth. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/rupture-an...

Bhumjaithai's Big Technocratic Bet Prime Minister Anutin welcomes outside experts to his cabinet

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has unveiled several "outsider appointments" to his prospective cabinet.

In this newsletter, I look at the historical context of cabinet technocrats in Thailand and unpack Bhumjaithai's strategy: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/bhumjaitha...

Anutin Charnvirakul Elected Prime Minister A profile of Thailand's 32nd prime minister and his Bhumjaithai Party

Thailand has a new prime minister.

My profile of Anutin Charnvirakul, recently elected as Thailand's 32nd PM, and his Bhumjaithai Party. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/anutin-cha...

Out of Cards Vote for PM scheduled for September 5th

With a vote to select the next prime minister of Thailand scheduled for tomorrow, it looks like Pheu Thai may now be out of cards. Barring a last minute shock, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul increasingly looks like an inevitability. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/out-of-cards

Not any easier to get anything done when you're awake for it all...

Anutin is Almost Prime Minister. Can Pheu Thai Stop Him? We're entering uncharted waters for Thai politics

Anutin Charnvirakul is almost Thailand's 32nd prime minister. In a bid to stop him, Pheu Thai has requested a dissolution of parliament, sparking a constitutional crisis.

We're entering uncharted waters in Thai politics. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/anutin-is-...

Government Formation Update: A Day of Twists Political maneuvering continues

What is Pheu Thai doing with Chaikasem Nitisiri? When will the People's Party announce their decision? Will Phumtham dissolve parliament? Are we about to see a knight in shining armor?

Today's Coffee Parliament update: www.coffeeparliament.com/p/government...

Pheu Thai Makes an Offer to the People's Party An attempt to let bygones be bygones

Today's update: Pheu Thai has also accepted all of the People's Party conditions for a confidence and supply arrangement. But it looks like they're facing an uphill task to form a new government. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/pheu-thai-...

It's hard to keep up at this point!

Bhumjaithai's New Coalition Emerges Dark blue PM, kaleidoscope government, orange guarantor

An alternative coalition led by Bhumjaithai has emerged.

It's a political innovation: fueled by renegade factions and likely dependent on a confidence and supply agreement with the People's Party. We've never seen a coalition like this in Thailand.
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/bhumjaitha...

Paetongtarn Shinawatra is Out. Who Will Succeed Her? Four possible scenarios

Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been removed by the Constitutional Court. Here, I lay out four potential scenarios on what comes next. www.coffeeparliament.com/p/paetongtar...

Will Twenty Baht Transit Fares Happen? Pheu Thai's 14-year old policy pledge still faces challenges

Pheu Thai first promised a 20 baht flat rail transit fare in Bangkok in 2011. It's now 2025: will it ever happen? www.coffeeparliament.com/p/will-twent...

Will She Stay or Will She Go? Speculation intensifies that the Prime Minister could resign

There's been a lot of speculation recently that Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra could resign before the Constitutional Court issues a ruling on her ethics case. Will she stay or will she go? www.coffeeparliament.com/p/will-she-s...