@davidorban.com.bsky.social
Thriving in cycles of jolting technological change. Flowing in wonderment. What is the question that I should be asking?
The Jolting Technologies Paper is Now Available
After months of development and peer review, I'm sharing the complete academic framework for understanding AI's superexponential growth.
Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2507.06398
Code: github.com/davidorban/j...
If they have to revise their conclusion, shortening this period, it will be a strong experimental indication that the Jolting Technologies Hypothesis is currently valid.
10.07.2025 18:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0One of the promising sources is the compilation of the ability of AI agents to complete tasks successfully. The research organization METR mapped and analyzed this, coming to the conclusion that the length of the tasks doubles every 7 months.
10.07.2025 18:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0There is plenty of anecdotal support for the Jolting Technologies Hypothesis, with the CEOs of Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, NVIDIA, all talking about shrinking doubling rates. It is however harder to collect more granular data.
10.07.2025 18:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0To compare jolts across different scales, I define a normalized Jolt magnitude. This tells us the jolt intensity relative to current capability, making it meaningful whether we're talking about language models or image generators.
10.07.2025 18:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0When jolt is positive and sustained, you're in a "jolting regime" of a particular phenomenon. The Jolting Technologies Hypothesis postulates that we are currently in a jolting regime for Artificial Intelligence.
10.07.2025 18:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Are AI Agents Jolting? The Jolting Technologies Hypothesis Predicts Superexponential Improvements.
If position is where you are, velocity is how fast you're moving, and acceleration is how quickly your speed changes, then jolt is how quickly your acceleration changes.
The world is now increasingly shaped by the superexponential progression in the power of AI. Understanding exponentials like Moore's Law is not enough.
09.07.2025 15:06 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Our tools are getting so good that the gap between having an idea and executing it is shrinking toward zero.
We are watching AI tools transform from curiosities to creative partners in real-time, the speed of change feels different, but accelerating in a way that defies conventional models.
Think AI chats are shallow?
My twin, R. David Orban, holds 20, 30, even 60-turn conversations, and then gets asked to contact me directly.
This is scaled connection, not replacement.
“Is there anything I can say to prove I’m Emiliano?”
My AI twin answered in Italian:
“No need for proof. You live in Dubai, and your question shows the connection is real.”
🧠 Context.
🌐 Multilingual.
🤖 Personal.
Try it → davidorban.com
Read more on my newsletter davidorban.substack.com/p/meet-my-ai...
30.06.2025 11:37 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Ready to Build Yours?
If you are ready to explore your own AI persona, book a conversation with my agent Jay, who helps evaluate the best-fit opportunities, and to explore how I can support your mission.
api.leadconnectorhq.com/widget/booki...
I have built a digital version of myself: R. David Orban, and it is live at davidorban.com. It is an AI persona trained on decades of my thinking, leadership, and lived experience. And now, it is ready to engage.
30.06.2025 11:37 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0Meet My AI Twin: R. David Orban
What if your insights could be available 24/7, across the globe, without needing to clone your calendar? That is not a thought experiment anymore, but an online service you can interact with today.
Work with David Orban: I speak, advise, and contribute to frontier projects across AI, Web3, governance, and exponential innovation.
🎤 Keynotes
🧭 Strategic Advisory
📊 Board Participation
📅 Book a time to discuss with my agent Jay: api.leadconnectorhq.com/widget/booki...
Discover The Power of the Command Line
We have a new generation of AI tools that make accessible to everyone the power of the command line that unlocks possibilities in the use of your computer that you didn't know you had.
youtu.be/_RpHqe3xmCs
Vibe coding turns ideas into reality through conversation with AI. Whether you're a developer looking to 10x your productivity or a curious beginner, these tools let you create functional apps, games, and websites with just words. youtu.be/JqeQgAOahSI
22.03.2025 22:10 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Is extraction economics coming to an end? Join me on March 21 at 1PM GMT as we explore the revolutionary vision described in the new book "Stellar" with the authors James Arbib and Tony Seba. A civilization-level transformation may be closer than you think. www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_cA...
20.03.2025 13:56 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0Your AI generated reply is lame. (And I was talking about the speed of the train.)
17.03.2025 19:26 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Vibe coding at 200 km/h
17.03.2025 10:13 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
I'm using Warp Terminal to clean up my download folder and am already imagining in a few years' time being able to do the same for my entire home, using robots.
27.02.2025 16:35 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Backing up your data is essential, whether from social media platforms, YouTube, or AI assistants like ChatGPT. Here you can find a simple way to export and download your interactions from ChatGPT and other AI platforms. open.substack.com/pub/davidorb...
10.02.2025 21:59 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Every new platform brings an opportunity to experiment, learn, and evolve. Here's to this new one, Focus.. Join me on Focus, be one of the first to experiment focus.xyz?password=KMG...
09.02.2025 18:04 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
I will be in India, giving a talk at Zu-Grama in Kerala and then Delhi and Uttarkhand until Feb 20. Let me know if you'd like to meet.
08.02.2025 14:03 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Join me with Alex Zhavoronkov live to discuss how AI is revolutionizing drug discovery. Tuesday, Feb 4, at 12 PM ET
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9twy...
That time when I had to explain the topology of fish slices to my daughter
27.01.2025 10:17 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
What is scalability? We talk about scalability, and scaling laws. But what does scalability actually mean? Let’s explore the idea of scalability, with examples from maps, to buildings, and finally AI. youtu.be/jRLAGieCbVo
24.01.2025 14:20 — 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
I will be in Marrakesh on Jan 28 - Feb 3. Let me know if you want to meet!
24.01.2025 12:48 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Is it possible to build a bridge in a single day with a million workers? Can a lemon produce a thousand liters of juice if squeezed for long enough? These "disanalogies" show how surprising AI's scalability laws are.
youtu.be/9ZEn4HvOsGM
