Geofutures

I’m struck by how every day the admin is like “whoever could have foreseen these consequences?!” when the consequences thus far — evacuations, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rise in gas prices, etc. — are all the literal most obvious consequences.

@vermontgmg.bsky.social How likely is it that 2 Ospreys flying NW out of DC the afternoon of the State of the Union were carrying a designated survivor?

"The Adjustment Bureau" rated 1-10 for foresight (2), plausibility (1), and entertainment (8)

Futurist at the movies microreview: "The Adjustment Bureau," which came out 15 years ago today.

Karlin: "Almost inconceivable" that US will send in ground troops, as it would be as bad or much worse than the invasion of Iraq.

Maloney: The regime that emerges in Iran is likely to be weaker but also potentially more dangerous.

War in Iran: What happens next? | Brookings On March 3, Brookings scholars will discuss tensions between the United States and Iran.

Maloney on Iran's future: The regime is deeply embedded and well-armed, and we are likely to end up with a determined rump version of the current regime. www.brookings.edu/events/us-ir...

"When U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said that the president was frustrated that the Iranians hadn’t capitulated, it just meant that they completely misunderstand what the calculation is in Iran."

"Iran can take the pain. The question is when their capabilities may falter. They have made the decision that the only way the Islamic Republic, the revolution, and even the country survives is to persevere in this fight."

"The Iranians think right now that they have the stamina to keep hitting targets in the Gulf, raise energy prices, raise concern in global markets, and also gradually bring the Europeans into it."

Did Trump Miscalculate on Iran? The White House is discovering that Iran and Israel have a higher tolerance for pain, according to Mideast expert Vali Nasr.

Vali Nasr: Iran thinks that "if the war went on longer, got bloodier, more complicated, then it would establish a deterrence against further American aggression against Iran down the road" foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/02/n...

Hunger in Havana: Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba? | International Crisis Group Cuba is facing its biggest humanitarian crisis and the greatest threat to its political status quo in decades, after the U.S. clamped down on its energy supply. In this Q&A, Crisis Group explains the ...

Cuba: "If protesters were to be met with a state-led crackdown, Washington could face a chorus of domestic demands for a decisive response, possibly extending to calls for military intervention." www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...

As things stand, I still agree with this scenario assessment:

If this order goes ahead and is allowed by the Supreme Court, it will be a strong sign the US has transitioned to post-Constitutional soft authoritarianism.

Earning Optimism in 2026 What comes after what's next? That's a more important question than how we'll fare in the next five to ten years. Clues are emerging

"The post-fossil-fuel order may not be more multipolar and democratic than the petro-order; it might just reorder coercive leverage around new scarcities." kschroeder.substack.com/p/earning-op...

Open-Source War Rooms: The “GameStop” Moment of Geopolitics? What happens when geopolitics becomes a tradable surface for everyone?

OSINT and financialization -- "Once conflict probabilities are tokenised, marginable, and globally accessible, the question is no longer who observes instability. The question becomes: Who benefits from its acceleration?" jamie247.substack.com/p/open-sourc...

18 years after this satirical "forecast" for 2024 in Wired, many elements have cropped up in reality.

@kenjennings.bsky.social @terriblemapshq.bsky.social
An insult used in a dream I had last night: "He's like a bathymetric chart of a kiddy pool: no depths."

Around here, I've mostly seen Ospreys doing publicity shoot flights.

These 2 V-22 Ospreys just flew over my house. Speculation: they are carrying the SOTU designated survivor

Futurist at the movies microreview: "Chaos Walking," which came out 5 years ago today. A planetary settlement degenerates under the effects of inadvertent radical transparency.

Iran: "The best-case scenario after all the death and destruction might be a nationalist, authoritarian, and emboldened Iranian regime that is liberated from the unpopular trappings of an aging supreme leader and religious establishment."

"The most likely outcome of successful regime change in Iran is a takeover by the IRGC, which would be the best armed and most powerful force in a chaotic transitional environment. An Iranian military regime would likely remain sanctioned and unstable."

Iran: "State failure and collapse into civil war is a more likely outcome than either democracy or a monarchical restoration." "Israel may well be just fine with a divided, weak, and fragmented Iran consumed by civil war and ethnic splintering."

"Trump could not care less about democracy, with exhibit A being Venezuela. He has no day-after plan for Iran, and most of the U.S. government personnel who might have once formulated such a plan have long since been fired."

"The emergence of a democratic republic will be what many Iranians prefer, but it is the least likely outcome of a regime change triggered by airstrikes alone."

4 scenarios for Iran: "Even the most devastating air campaign against Iran’s regime will prove no more enduring a victory than former U.S. President George W. Bush’s infamous declaration of “mission accomplished”" archive.is/rbAJa#select...

How uncrewed narco subs could transform the Colombian drug trade Fast, stealthy, and cheap—autonomous, semisubmersible drone boats carrying tons of cocaine could be international law enforcement’s nightmare scenario. A big one just came ashore.

An autonomous / remotely piloted semi-submarine with a range of thousands of miles and a multi-ton payload seems like it has real terrorism potential -- www.technologyreview.com/2026/02/19/1...

Futurist at the movies microreview: "Things to Come" premiered 90 years ago today. Based on the work of H.G. Wells, and written by him, it has genuine foresight credentials.

When the snow melted yesterday, I found an ancient relic preserved in the ice in my front yard: a Washington Post that had a book section and a sports section.

I don't know what this dog is up to in our yard, but he's talented.