Clyde Russell

Jet fuel's huge price surge points to coming pain from Iran war The explosion in jet fuel prices in Asia is an early indicator that the economic pain of the war in the Middle East is about to become reality for energy consumers.

If you are looking for the canary in the #crude barrel, then jet fuel is screeching. An absolutely massive surge in prices in Asia to record highs as market players fret about a looming shortage of the refined fuel that traditionally has the lowest inventory levels. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China imports the most energy, but is best placed on Iran China is the world's largest energy importer and would therefore appear vulnerable to the surge in crude oil and natural gas prices from the conflict between Israel and the United States against Iran.

It may seem contradictory that China, which imports more crude oil, LNG and coal than any other country is actually the best placed to weather, and perhaps even profit from, the current spike in prices from the Iran conflict. #crude #crudeoil #LNG #coal #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

OPEC+ crude output boost ignored with duration of Hormuz disruption key The OPEC+ decision to lift crude oil output by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) from April is probably the least consequential decision the group has made in nearly a decade of existence.

Time has become the most important factor in global #crude oil and #LNG markets, as in how long will supplies be disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. The $10 a barrel jump in oil suggests the market still thinks it will be a short-term event. #energy #OPEC www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China is shifting crude oil buying in response to price rally One of the least talked about dynamics of the global crude oil market is the role China plays in setting a floor and a ceiling for prices.

China’s role as a price maker in #crude oil markets may be about to shift to a different phase. The recent geopolitical spike higher in prices is leading to changes in the types and volumes of crude China is buying, but this will only show up in April and May imports. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Copper drives BHP and Rio, but getting more is the trick The latest corporate results from major miners BHP Group and Rio Tinto highlight copper's starring role in driving profits, but they also underline how difficult it will be to get more exposure to the...

Copper is taking over from iron ore as the most important commodity for major miners BHP and Rio Tinto, as shown by their recent results. But as the failed mega-mergers with Anglo American and Glencore show, getting more is going to be hard and expensive. #copper www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

US LNG export surge and soft China demand meet record European imports Spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia have drifted lower despite solid demand in the top-consuming region and record imports by Europe.

Europe’s #LNG imports are set to hit a record high in February, but the strong demand hasn’t really shown up in prices, with spot prices in Asia easing recently. Robust US export growth coupled with soft Chinese demand are working to keep the market balanced. #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Crude oil's current Iran premium assumes no supply disruption The premium currently built into the crude oil price over tensions between the United States and Iran fluctuates according to the daily headlines, but there is an underlying assumption that everything...

Despite the headline-driven fluctuations in the #crude oil price, the market is relaxed over the possibility of supply disruptions from any US-Iran conflict. The risk is that if Iran thinks the US wants regime change, then hitting oil supplies becomes logical. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Asia gobbles up crude oil, but geopolitics is shifting supplier mix Asia's imports of crude oil are on track to hit a record high in February as the recent strong run continues, but the mix of suppliers is starting to shift in response to geopolitical dynamics.

There is no doubt that Asian #crude oil demand has been robust in recent months, with Kpler data showing a likely record high in seaborne imports in February. But the details also show the supplier mix is changing, with Russia losing and Saudi Arabia gaining. #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Can Africa win as the West and China scramble for minerals? Two multi-billion dollar rail projects in Africa. One headed west, the other east. One backed by Western countries, the other by China. Both aiming to ship vast quantities of critical minerals. Welcom...

Unsubstantiated optimism over Africa’s vast minerals endowment has been a feature of past Mining Indabas. What was different this year was the West is putting up capital as it wakes up to China’s huge lead. #mining #miningindaba #commodities #copper #cobalt #metals www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

India's sponge iron boom rides to rescue South African coal Finding bullish exporters of thermal coal has been tricky of late given soft prices, lower demand from heavyweight buyers China and India, and for Indonesian miners an additional headache of uncertain...

Exporting seaborne thermal coal has been a tough business in recent years, with both prices and volumes declining. But South Africa’s exporters are looking toward strong demand in India, but mainly from non-electricity users, with sponge iron being the standout. #coal www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Peak coal may be elusive, but peak seaborne coal is here The headline news that global coal demand reached a record high in 2025 masks some important underlying shifts in how the fuel is being produced, traded and used.

While the headline may be that global coal demand continues to rise, the composition is changing, with higher domestic output in top two producers China and India starting to weigh on the seaborne trade for thermal coal, which has likely peaked in Asia. #coal #climate www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Two things OPEC+ can't control. Trump and China imports There are two factors that are largely beyond the control of OPEC+ and they are likely to determine the price of crude oil in the coming weeks.

OPEC+ made no changes to production policy, as expected, at its meeting yesterday. The statement said the 8 members of the group with #crude quotas would continue to monitor the market. It’s a tacit acknowledgement the group isn’t driving the market currently. #OPEC www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The Trump and China metals rally extends beyond gold and silver The massive surge in gold and silver in recent months has been grabbing headlines, but behind the precious metal hype the less glamorous industrial metals have also ​been putting in strong performance...

Gold and silver hog the headlines, but base metals such as copper, aluminium and nickel have also surged in recent months, beyond what is justified by fundamentals. China and Donald Trump are the most likely drivers. #gold #silver #copper #aluminium #nickel #metals www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China passes steel output peak, developing Asia still climbing It's a fairly safe bet to say that China's steel production has passed its peak, after 2025 output dropped to a seven-year low.

China has passed peak steel output but the decline is likely to be gentle. However, developing Asian nations such as India are ramping up their production, giving hope to iron ore miners that demand may remain robust. #steel #commodities #ironore #mining www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Where is the expected crude oil supply glut, or when it is coming? But the answer is China, which had a massive surplus of 2.67 million bpd in December and over 1 million bpd for 2025 as a whole. It’s also likely to keep buying #crude if the price remains low enough. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Growth in coal-fired power generation in China and India by year, %, 1972-2025. Source: Analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta for Carbon Brief.

NEW – Analysis: Coal power drops in China and India for first time in 52 years after clean-energy records | @laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/WqnAVhP

Commodities buffeted by Trump whirlwind seek relief in 2026 Commodities were pelted in 2025 by the whirlwind of tariffs and policies imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, and while the storm may recede in 2026, the ripples will last some time.

There is no dispute that Donald Trump has an outsized effect on commodity prices. This will continue in 2026, but the winners and losers may shift. Another question is what happens if Trump realises the commitments by countries to buy US commodities are unachievable. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China overtakes OPEC+ as the main oil price maker Conventional wisdom in the crude oil market is that producers such as OPEC+ largely determine the price by altering output levels to achieve a desired outcome.

Sometimes the market gets comfortable with a paradigm, even though it is changing. The role of China in #crude oil markets is just such a shift, as the world’s biggest importer transitions from sustained growth to using imports and inventories for price management. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Asia's imports of US energy drop in 2025 despite Trump trade moves Asia's imports of U.S. crude oil, coal and liquefied natural gas are on track to decline this year despite President Donald Trump's efforts to boost shipments as part of his trade and tariff policies.

Asia will buy less U.S. energy commodities this year than last despite President Trump’s efforts to use trade tariffs to boost purchases of #crude oil, #coal and #LNG. While Japan and South Korea have modestly lifted imports, China bought far less than in prior years. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China's steel output to slump to 7-year low as iron ore imports hit record China's steel production in November was the weakest month in nearly two years and will ensure that the world's biggest producer of the metal will post its lowest annual output since 2018.

China’s steel output was the weakest in 23 months in November and the annual total is likely to be the lowest since 2018. But iron ore imports are forecast to reach a record high, amid restocking and hopes for a better 2026 for steel demand. #steel #ironore #metals www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China accelerates crude stockpiling amid weaker oil price trend China's flows of crude oil into storage probably jumped in November to the highest in six months, as a surge in imports overwhelmed steady refinery processing rates.

China’s surplus #crude surged to a six-month high of 1.88 million bpd in November as the highest imports in 27 months far outweighed steady refinery processing. Increased import quotas and weaker oil prices likely drove the increase in crude available for storage. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

India imports more Russian crude, but mix of buyers shifts India's crude oil imports from Russia are on track to climb to a six-month high in December as the world's third-biggest buyer defies U.S. sanctions on Moscow's oil producers.

India’s imports of Russian #crude are set to rise to a 6-month high in December as US sanctions are largely ignored. But which refineries are buying is changing, with Reliance cutting but part-Russian owned Nayara raising to levels in excess of its refining capacity. www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China steel exports surge but aluminium shipments slide China's exports of steel products have surged this year as domestic demand - particularly from property development - slumps, while those of aluminium have tumbled on rising activity from the manufact...

China’s exports of steel and aluminium have diverged this year, with #steel surging as mills try to compensate for weak domestic demand, but #aluminium slipping as output caps and rising local consumption cut metal available for exports. #metals #commodities #China www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China's major commodities tell a story of prices and inventories China's imports of major commodities were on divergent tracks in November, with crude oil and iron ore powering ahead but copper and coal losing steam.

China’s imports of major commodities were a bit of a mixed bag in November, with strength in crude oil and iron ore, but softness in copper and coal. Crude and iron ore were likely boosted by stockpiling amid steady prices. #crude #coal #ironore #copper #commodities www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China and India import more thermal coal, but price gains may weigh Thermal coal imports by Asia's heavyweights China and India ticked higher in November, but the accompanying rise in prices may cap further gains in volumes.

There was a small uptick in thermal coal imports by top buyers China and India in November, but recent price rises for the main grades may limit any rallies in volumes even as the winter peak demand approaches. #coal #thermalcoal #energy #mining www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

China's LNG importer crown at risk as high prices cap demand Asia's imports of liquefied natural gas flatlined in November, putting the top-buying region of the super-chilled fuel on track to record its first annual decline in three years.

A main theme in LNG this year has been the slide in China’s imports, so much so that the top buyer is in danger of losing the crown back to Japan, according to Kpler data. High prices amid rising European demand have capped imports by price-sensitive Asian buyers #LNG www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

OPEC+ sticks to its 'all is fine in oil' mantra, but uncertainty rises At first glance the decision by OPEC+ to leave oil output levels unchanged for the first quarter of next year could be viewed as confirmation the exporter group is concerned about a looming crude supp...

OPEC+ stuck to its script of an #oil market that is healthy with low inventories in deciding not to change output quotas at its meeting yesterday. This was expected, but it also shows that many #crude analysts diverge, seeing a supply glut next year. #OPEC #energy www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

Silver quietly outperforms gold for precious metal podium Silver may be viewed as something of a bridesmaid to gold in precious metal markets, seemingly overshadowed by its more talked about rival.

Silver is not a media darling like gold, but it has delivered a higher percentage return than its more glamorous rival in the current 2-year uptrend. It also has a more compelling outlook of restrained supply and robust demand growth from solar panels. #silver #gold www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

One of the effects of the sanctions on Russian oil companies has been to tighten Asia’s diesel market, leading to refining margins hitting 2-year highs. The market now expects China’s refiners will step up and export more refined products in December. #energy #diesel www.reuters.com/markets/comm...

The COP30 statement may have disappointed environmentalists by not mentioning fossil fuels, but it wouldn’t have mattered much even if it had. What is clear is that the real battle is between “electrifiers” and “fossileers” and the money flow favours renewables #COP30 www.reuters.com/markets/comm...