Scott Clement

Majority of Americans think Trump’s deportation campaign is going too far A new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll underscores the extent to which Americans are living in fear of the deportation dragnet and dislike the administration’s approach.

Re-upping our story on how public opinion on immigration enforcement shifted after Minnesota. Support for mass deportations in general head steady, but opposition to ICE operations grew to a majority and 58% said deportations had gone too far. Gift link: wapo.st/4rjpYOL

A February Post-ABC-Ipsos poll found 44% of Americans supported/23% opposed replacing Noem; 32% no opinion

Less than half of Republicans opposed replacing Noem (45%), though just 15% supported it. By contrast, 50% of U.S./80% of Republicans opposed abolishing ICE docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

>>>

Nixon v Kennedy polling trend 1957 to final election, with key events indicated. Voter preference is accurately described as “seesawing” Public Opinion Index for Industry report using Gallup data

I do love a nice trendline with event markers

How a DHS shooting of a third U.S. citizen went unnoticed for months No state or federal agency disclosed that a Homeland Security Investigations agent had killed Ruben Ray Martinez until it was revealed in a public records request.

How a DHS shooting of a third U.S. citizen went unnoticed for months www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...

No. 1 in shame

Bar chart showing the percentage of adults in various countries who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad. The chart is based on a spring 2025 Pew Research Center survey of 25 countries.

"The United States is the only place we surveyed where more adults describe the morality and ethics of others living in the country as bad (53%) than as good (47%)." www.pewresearch.org/religion/202...

‘I did not vote for this’: Thousands of public comments slam Trump’s ballroom A Post analysis of submitted comments found more than 97 percent were critical of the planned 90,000-square-foot addition. The White House has defended it as necessary.

‘I did not vote for this’: Thousands of public comments slam Trump’s ballroom. Smart usage of AI (with human checking) to classify thousands of comments by @aaronschaffer.com and team www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

A February Post-ABC-Ipsos poll found 44% supported/23% opposed replacing Noem; 32% had no opinion. Less than half of Republicans opposed replacing her (45%), though just 15% supported it. By contrast, 50% of adults/80% of Republicans opposed abolishing ICE docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Trump calls on Kurds to aid U.S. effort in Iran, offers support In calls to Kurdish minority leaders in Iran and neighboring Iraq, President Donald Trump offered U.S. support to insurgent efforts against Tehran.

Post reporters interviewed Kurdish leaders in Iran and Iraq, reporting that President Donald Trump offered “extensive U.S. aircover” and other backing for anti-regime Iranian Kurds to take over portions of western Iran www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

A new poll shows who Americans trust over the CDC The new findings come after the Trump administration in January took the unprecedented step of overhauling the CDC’s routine childhood immunization schedule.

A new poll shows who Americans trust over the CDC, via @lenasun.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/...

Just the executive chairman of defense tech company Anduril trying to buy Wired, cool cool cool.

From Hamas attack to U.S. war with Iran, violence forges a new Middle East An Iran-led order that long backed the likes of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis – is gone. What will follow is one of the top questions of modern geopolitics.

From Hamas attack to U.S. war with Iran, violence forges a new Middle East - Steve Hendrix with the 10,000-foot view www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

Good follow ->

OPPOSE the US sending ground troops into Iran:

• 76% Democrats
• 64% Independents/Other
• 38% Republicans

(CNN poll)
www.cnn.com/2026/03/02/p...

Bettors wagered $54 million on Khamenei’s death. Now they’re not getting paid. Kalshi, a prediction market site, has sparked outrage after freezing $54 million in bets on the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, citing a rule against profiting from death.

New: I talked to the traders who bet Khamenei would die.

One, an Israeli ex-pat, would've won $63,000 before Kalshi froze the bet: “I was booking my trip to Courchevel.”

“American commercial immorality on steroids," @chrismurphyct.bsky.social told me

www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

SCOOP: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East, sources tell Ellen Nakashima and me

Sometimes, public perceptions mirror reality. Gift links -> wapo.st/4aM6zB1
wapo.st/4u5aKPR

Following Iran strikes, Trump floods news outlets with one-on-one calls Trump’s unorthodox media strategy, a flurry of calls to reporters on both sides of the aisle, aims to shape public opinion on US military action against Iran.

Since the Iran strike, President Donald Trump has taken calls from a long list of reporters — a deliberate media strategy during a consequential moment in his second term.

My latest with @liamjscott.bsky.social: www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

Fair point, although 2001/2003 was a very different environment. Partisan reactions to Trump actions among Reps/Dems have been pretty polarized over the past decade.

I asked Claude to summarize your take in a Haiku
Polls speak — you scoff, yet
nuance is what you demand.
Ask, then listen well.

in summation:
"here's what reaction polling in the wake of major foreign policy events can't tell us": great! true! helpful!

"these polls are stupid and tell us nothing": unhelpful, particularly if your main complaint is that polling does not sufficiently capture nuance

Most Americans do not support latest Iran strikes, 3 polls find Three polls show us what Americans think after the attacks on Iran.

Most Americans do not support latest Iran strikes, 3 polls find

As always, we released full topline results and methods from our Washington Post flash poll here -> www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2026/...
Take a swim through the crosstabs -> docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Also interesting division among Republicans - 48% say Trump's goals have been achieved with Khamanei's death, while 52% say they have not www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

"A narrow 54 percent majority of Republicans say the United States should continue strikes against Iran, far lower than the 81 percent who support Trump’s initial order." www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

We texted 1,000 Americans about U.S. strikes in Iran. Here’s what they said. Fifty-two percent of Americans oppose the strikes, and two-thirds say the Trump administration hasn’t clearly explained the goals of the military action.

"The unpopularity of strikes is driven by political independents, who oppose them by about 2 to 1, 59 percent to 28 percent." From our Washington Post flash poll www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

Also big props to our Post-UMD polling fellow Isabelle Gibson, who reviewed 1,003 open-ended responses on what Americans think Trump's Iran goals are.

What are the Trump administration's goals in Iran? Our Washington Post flash poll asked 1,003 Americans to describe them in their own words www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

We texted 1,000 Americans about U.S. strikes in Iran. Here’s what they said. Fifty-two percent of Americans oppose the strikes, and two-thirds say the Trump administration hasn’t clearly explained the goals of the military action.

More Americans oppose the strikes than support them. Perceptions of Trump’s goals vary widely, though 2/3 say his administration has not clearly explained them. Still, about half think the U.S. military’s actions will contribute to long-term U.S. security. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...