Scott Clement

Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime A classified U.S. report doubts that Iran’s opposition would take power following either a short or extended U.S. military campaign.

POST EXCLUSIVE A classified report completed by the National Intelligence Council a week before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran found that even a large-scale assault would be unlikely to oust its military and clerical establishment

www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

There were 750,000 Iranian Americans in the U.S. as of 2024. Here are some facts about Iranians living in the U.S. 🧵

Also seeing very similar reactions across party lines across all seven surveys since the war began: independents average -27 net support for Iran military action, Democrats -69, Republicans +58

Latest Iran poll from NPR/PBS News/Marist conducted Monday-Wednesday finds 44% support/56% oppose military action. The -12 margin of net support is about the same as -11 across six polls conducted through March 3, suggesting initial reactions have persisted maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/war-wi...

Army unit’s moves trigger speculation as U.S. plots next steps in Iran war The abrupt cancelation of a training event has put a spotlight on the 82nd Airborne Division, which specializes in ground combat and other fraught missions.

Army unit’s moves trigger speculation as U.S. plots next steps in Iran war, @danlamothe.bsky.social reports www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Most Americans think their fellow citizens are bad people, survey says A new Pew survey shows that other countries’ citizens tend to look more favorably on their neighbors.

Most Americans think their fellow citizens are bad people, @pewresearch.org survey says. Story from @michelleboorstein.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/...

Fuel prices were among people's least concerns last month

Strict new Kansas law forces trans drivers to hand over their licenses. Rich detail in The Post's story by @anniegowen.bsky.social reporting from Lawrence, Kansas, with @praveenavsoma.bsky.social
www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/...

Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base

The U.S. was attacking targets right near the school in Minab that was destroyed by an airstrike on Feb. 28, an @nytimes.com visual forensics investigation found www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/w...

BREAKING
#Trump issues a stmt re: #Iran war, saying: "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!"

NOTE: Click on my quoted OP for yesterday's reporting

#EpicFury

They just didn't offer an explicit "no opinion" option. CNN's poll did the same. Ours offered "unsure"

Fair cases for/against. Including 'no opinion' can help for new/low salience issues where many have no opin. Excluding can get people to express leanings. Looking at support margin helps equalize

Russia is providing Iran intelligence to target U.S. forces, officials say The targeting information has included the locations of American warships and aircraft in the Middle East, the officials said.

Exclusive: Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating — even indirectly — in the war.

Majority of Americans think Trump’s deportation campaign is going too far A new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll underscores the extent to which Americans are living in fear of the deportation dragnet and dislike the administration’s approach.

Re-upping our story on how public opinion on immigration enforcement shifted after Minnesota. Support for mass deportations in general head steady, but opposition to ICE operations grew to a majority and 58% said deportations had gone too far. Gift link: wapo.st/4rjpYOL

A February Post-ABC-Ipsos poll found 44% of Americans supported/23% opposed replacing Noem; 32% no opinion

Less than half of Republicans opposed replacing Noem (45%), though just 15% supported it. By contrast, 50% of U.S./80% of Republicans opposed abolishing ICE docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

>>>

Nixon v Kennedy polling trend 1957 to final election, with key events indicated. Voter preference is accurately described as “seesawing” Public Opinion Index for Industry report using Gallup data

I do love a nice trendline with event markers

How a DHS shooting of a third U.S. citizen went unnoticed for months No state or federal agency disclosed that a Homeland Security Investigations agent had killed Ruben Ray Martinez until it was revealed in a public records request.

How a DHS shooting of a third U.S. citizen went unnoticed for months www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/...

No. 1 in shame

Bar chart showing the percentage of adults in various countries who rate the morality and ethics of people in their country as very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad or very bad. The chart is based on a spring 2025 Pew Research Center survey of 25 countries.

"The United States is the only place we surveyed where more adults describe the morality and ethics of others living in the country as bad (53%) than as good (47%)." www.pewresearch.org/religion/202...

‘I did not vote for this’: Thousands of public comments slam Trump’s ballroom A Post analysis of submitted comments found more than 97 percent were critical of the planned 90,000-square-foot addition. The White House has defended it as necessary.

‘I did not vote for this’: Thousands of public comments slam Trump’s ballroom. Smart usage of AI (with human checking) to classify thousands of comments by @aaronschaffer.com and team www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

A February Post-ABC-Ipsos poll found 44% supported/23% opposed replacing Noem; 32% had no opinion. Less than half of Republicans opposed replacing her (45%), though just 15% supported it. By contrast, 50% of adults/80% of Republicans opposed abolishing ICE docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Trump calls on Kurds to aid U.S. effort in Iran, offers support In calls to Kurdish minority leaders in Iran and neighboring Iraq, President Donald Trump offered U.S. support to insurgent efforts against Tehran.

Post reporters interviewed Kurdish leaders in Iran and Iraq, reporting that President Donald Trump offered “extensive U.S. aircover” and other backing for anti-regime Iranian Kurds to take over portions of western Iran www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

A new poll shows who Americans trust over the CDC The new findings come after the Trump administration in January took the unprecedented step of overhauling the CDC’s routine childhood immunization schedule.

A new poll shows who Americans trust over the CDC, via @lenasun.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/health/2026/...

Just the executive chairman of defense tech company Anduril trying to buy Wired, cool cool cool.

From Hamas attack to U.S. war with Iran, violence forges a new Middle East An Iran-led order that long backed the likes of Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis – is gone. What will follow is one of the top questions of modern geopolitics.

From Hamas attack to U.S. war with Iran, violence forges a new Middle East - Steve Hendrix with the 10,000-foot view www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/0...

Good follow ->

OPPOSE the US sending ground troops into Iran:

• 76% Democrats
• 64% Independents/Other
• 38% Republicans

(CNN poll)
www.cnn.com/2026/03/02/p...

Bettors wagered $54 million on Khamenei’s death. Now they’re not getting paid. Kalshi, a prediction market site, has sparked outrage after freezing $54 million in bets on the death of Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, citing a rule against profiting from death.

New: I talked to the traders who bet Khamenei would die.

One, an Israeli ex-pat, would've won $63,000 before Kalshi froze the bet: “I was booking my trip to Courchevel.”

“American commercial immorality on steroids," @chrismurphyct.bsky.social told me

www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

SCOOP: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East, sources tell Ellen Nakashima and me

Sometimes, public perceptions mirror reality. Gift links -> wapo.st/4aM6zB1
wapo.st/4u5aKPR