Scott Clement

Fair point, although 2001/2003 was a very different environment. Partisan reactions to Trump actions among Reps/Dems have been pretty polarized over the past decade.

I asked Claude to summarize your take in a Haiku
Polls speak — you scoff, yet
nuance is what you demand.
Ask, then listen well.

in summation:
"here's what reaction polling in the wake of major foreign policy events can't tell us": great! true! helpful!

"these polls are stupid and tell us nothing": unhelpful, particularly if your main complaint is that polling does not sufficiently capture nuance

Most Americans do not support latest Iran strikes, 3 polls find Three polls show us what Americans think after the attacks on Iran.

Most Americans do not support latest Iran strikes, 3 polls find

As always, we released full topline results and methods from our Washington Post flash poll here -> www.washingtonpost.com/tablet/2026/...
Take a swim through the crosstabs -> docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Also interesting division among Republicans - 48% say Trump's goals have been achieved with Khamanei's death, while 52% say they have not www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

"A narrow 54 percent majority of Republicans say the United States should continue strikes against Iran, far lower than the 81 percent who support Trump’s initial order." www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

We texted 1,000 Americans about U.S. strikes in Iran. Here’s what they said. Fifty-two percent of Americans oppose the strikes, and two-thirds say the Trump administration hasn’t clearly explained the goals of the military action.

"The unpopularity of strikes is driven by political independents, who oppose them by about 2 to 1, 59 percent to 28 percent." From our Washington Post flash poll www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

Also big props to our Post-UMD polling fellow Isabelle Gibson, who reviewed 1,003 open-ended responses on what Americans think Trump's Iran goals are.

What are the Trump administration's goals in Iran? Our Washington Post flash poll asked 1,003 Americans to describe them in their own words www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

We texted 1,000 Americans about U.S. strikes in Iran. Here’s what they said. Fifty-two percent of Americans oppose the strikes, and two-thirds say the Trump administration hasn’t clearly explained the goals of the military action.

More Americans oppose the strikes than support them. Perceptions of Trump’s goals vary widely, though 2/3 say his administration has not clearly explained them. Still, about half think the U.S. military’s actions will contribute to long-term U.S. security. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

We texted 1,000 Americans about U.S. strikes in Iran. Here’s what they said. Fifty-two percent of Americans oppose the strikes, and two-thirds say the Trump administration hasn’t clearly explained the goals of the military action.

Washington Post flash poll on Iran strikes just published -> www.washingtonpost.com/politics/int...

The Washington Post, Chicago Tribune Win 2026 Toner Prizes for Excellence in Political Reporting The Washington Post won the 2026 Toner Prize for national political reporting. The Chicago Tribune won for local political reporting. Ceremony set for March 23 in Washington, D.C.

Congrats to star Washington Post reporters @hannahnatanson.bsky.social , William Wan and @merylkornfield.bsky.social for winning the 2026 Toner Prize for Excellence in National Reporting for their series on “The year Trump broke the federal government” tinyurl.com/2sk3xphw

A new car, home feel out of reach for middle-class Americans, poll finds Most renters — including those earning six figures — doubt they could afford a home in the foreseeable future.

Indeed! The poll question intentionally asked about "a home you would want" to make that clear (wording in the charts here) wapo.st/4aG3YIT

A cluster, of course

Affordability is a subjective perception -- however strongly one feels -- and the poll asked people to answer based on their financial situation and the cost of things. That said, these are not small numbers saying essentials are unaffordable, and I think they comport well with other polls

Most homeowners say their housing costs is affordable, while most renters say they are not

Perhaps unsurprisingly, big differences by household income in responses to these questions

Overall, 53% of adults say they have just enough money to maintain their standard of living, nearly identical to a year ago wapo.st/4aG3YIT

Most renters — including those earning six figures — doubt they could afford a home in the foreseeable future wapo.st/4aG3YIT

Health care, new cars and new homes feel unaffordable to most Americans, a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos finds. Story by @laurenkaorigurley.bsky.social & Isabelle Gibson. Gift link -> wapo.st/4aG3YIT

Vance: ‘No chance’ U.S. will be in drawn-out war in Middle East As President Trump contemplates military action in Iran, the vice president told The Post he still sees himself as a “skeptic” of overseas military intervention.

Vance: ‘No chance’ U.S. will be in drawn-out war in Middle East
(Another Post exclusive)
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Very interesting study. On the conclusion, I'll warn that low-effort mail-to-web surveys may not be the answer. In experimenting with these in the past, they can also produce poor estimates, particularly for Black voters. Incentives and/or live-caller surveys have been more effective

Could be hard to carryout with any actual "low credibility" sponsor as you'd need their permission. But it's common for survey firms without wide name recognition to serve as the named sponsor, and would be interesting to see how much $ shapes trust

Agree that experiments on how visible cash incentives (vs. not visible) improve response rates would seem to only be explained by your second point. Hard to get at credibility impact, but a question about trust in the research firm asked of respondents with/without incentive might speak to that

Don Dillman strongly endorsed reciprocity (aka social exchange theory). Not sure how much research has investigated the specific mechanism, but it would be interesting to test. I've thought of unconditional cash incentives working for all the reasons you mention methods.sagepub.com/ency/edvol/e...

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll this month found 54% of Americans oppose / 23% support the federal government taking over election administration and vote counting in certain states, with 23% offering no opinion on the idea Trump floated recently docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

NEW: A federal judge said in an opinion issued today that the Trump administration violated the tax law “approximately 42,695 times” in turning over immigrant data to ICE

Trump, seeking executive power over elections, is urged to declare emergency Activists who say they are in coordination with the White House are circulating a draft executive order that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting.

Washington Post exclusive: Trump, seeking executive power over elections, is urged to declare emergency - via @iarnsdorf.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

They published the gender gap in all countries, but I don't see topline figures for most. They're generally responsive to requests, if interested