Arcane Demesne

Ah that's a more realistic stance than most people take.

I used to play a ton of RTS when I was young. And I'll always remain mad that Achron, a game with working time travel, never took off. Wish more devs took risks like that but I see why they don't.

No one likes to hear this but there isn't a large enough audience to support a high qualityRTS anymore. RTS was held aloft because there were no really good basebuilding games, no good MOBA style games, and no good tactical squad based combat games. Now that all of those things exist, too expensive.

America isn't perfect society, that's impossible because societies are composed of humans and some large minority of all humans suck. But relative to every other country on earth we are way ahead.

Now, again, if you want to argue that xenophilic as descriptor can't apply to any human society, fine.

America is the most diverse country on Earth and it isn't even close. We accepted Jews, Armenians, Bosnians, and many other groups that were being ethnically cleansed. And all those groups achieve the highest positions, culturally, politically, and economically in our society.

If modern America is not xenophilic then no one is. That's fine if that is the argument you want to make.

I know America's crimes were more recent than other nations but almost all of the world was built on genocide and slavery.

Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others.

America is the most racist country, except for all the others.

Seriously if you actually ask older immigrants who moved here from elsewhere they'd almost invariably agree.

Ask a European about the Roma. Ask Japan about anyone...

I am now going back to this being my game development account. No elections for a minimum of 7-8 months if ever. If you followed me for VA/NJ or TN I'd suggest you unfollow. Plus I had a pretty bad miss, although the reason was pretty obvious, last minute rural surge. Sorry I got it wrong guys. Bye.

The election day blood red rural surge was insane. Aftyn actually swung those areas and turnout was down like 10%, but she needed another 10% turnout drop which would have been mostly all R voters.

Andy Ogles is still fucked at least.

Big problem for her is Davidson is Black, not Hispanic/Asian...

The race getting nationalized probably is what caused the loss. With rural turnout down another 15% Aftyn likely would have won.

If Aftyn runs next year, with TN-5 also competitive I think you guys could get a higher vote share and also higher turnout in TN-7 part of Davidson and win it.

@kgreenmd.bsky.social Well, tonight really sucks but I will say, Davidson held up. It had the smallest % miss from my projection by a wide margin, turnout was actually dead on. The team canvassing Nashville did their job and more. Sadly there was not really a campaign in the rural areas.

With TN-5 on the table she'd have a strong chance to win in 2026 because Nashville turnout would be even higher, Trump would have fucked up the country for another year, and she'd have time to actually campaign in the rural and exurban areas and dispell the attacks on her.

I pushed the campaign to do more in rural areas, which would have been smart knowing that the race would be nationalized. But they didn't know so I think they avoided it to not stir up R voters. I think in the midterms Aftyn could win if she ran again.

A big problem for me was I had very good info on Davidson and Williamson but very little for Montgomery or the 3 medium pop counties.

Well at least we now know what to look for in 2026. If I were Aftyn I'd rerun the race in 2026 with a competitive TN-5 and some hard rural campaigning before then...

Dickson and Hickman had much higher turnout than I expected and it was all red. Roughly I missed by 7,000 in the 3 medium suburban/exurban counties. Pretty big miss. missed by 3,000 for the 8 really exurban/rural low pop counties.

I had Williamson at 25,000 and a 20% margin, that was actually pretty close, so I said -5000 and it was minus 6,250 out of 27,000 votes.

Montgomery sadly was a big miss, I said +1,000 and it was -3,450. i did pretty good in Cheatham but the day surge was bad for her.

Montgomery and Davidson were dead on my turnout prediction of 42,000. Williamson was about 2000 votes higher. But all the other counties had incredibly red election days.

Davidson was a little redder than I expected, so she won by 24,000 instead of the 26,000 I predicted.

@djsoke.bsky.social Yeah what happened compared to my projection is that nationalization did in fact pump up the rural numbers hard. I think because Aftyn had some bad moments caught on video but mainly they didn't campaign in rural/exurban areas and so nationalization hit them really bad.

48% in 2022 and 70% in 2025. Of course that swing is to the EV with no electionday vote in.

I'm using 2022 numbers. People using 2024 are making a mistake. She got a 25% swing in Williamson so far based on that.

Huh? Williamson isn't in yet and Davidson didn't drop.

@djsoke.bsky.social Votehub fucked up humphries lmao with like 95 votes in and Dems leading. NYT has the correct numbers.

R+ with a big underestimate of Davidson election day.

Waiting on Robertson, Nashville, and Williamson. Question is whether the turnout for R counties on election day is 50% of the total.

Hickman, Cheatham, Montgomery are in for EV. All comes down to Davidson based on these votes.

We got Wayne, too.

Is TN special energy more intense than hockey tv show energy?

Thanks, you've had some great info. Have a blast at the party.

Is that 1092 from every counting machine combined?

In any case I know they are required to post the final total for the whole precinct at the end, not sure how many people from Aftyn's campaign are waiting at key precincts to record the total. Probably don't have the manpower.

1,454+1092 is 2,550. Curious if they have a line at all, probably not. That's 70% of 2024 *right now*. Maybe a couple extra % by the end of the night.

426+436=862. That's 62% which is interestingly lower. It was 9.3% lower in the EV so that makes sense I guess to be ~8% lower now.

That explains that line.