Arcane Demesne

Oh sorry, Cheatham. Davidson won't have numbers for like 45 minutes to an hour. Might even still be people in line at Lentz, seeing if anyone knows.

No we passed 2022 by like 150 votes after today.

Bordeaux was busy but seemingly not at the same level of Lentz. I didn't actually get that many reports from there, guess that demographic doesn't use Reddit as much?

Probably won't get Davidson numbers till 5:00 or 5:30 depending on the line at Lentz.

Well, voting is close in Davidson, but might still be lines at Lentz and maybe Bordeaux. Metro got to 10 minute wait but they are probably done now. Hillwood I think never got passed a 10 minute wait.

Looking like 3,000 to 5,000 depending on how slower locations turned out and how fast Lentz moved.

If Aftyn wins this year Dems probably keep her seat and pick up TN-5 next year. Honestly TN-5 probably goes Dem even if she loses.

Senate also comes in reach if Dems have two very competitive Nashville based House races.

Got a report out of Bordeaux that they were quite busy if not Lentz level busy.

As in Virginia, so in Tennessee, that's what I'm hoping. Virginia was a little easier to predict than TN just cause the scale let minor variations average out but it does seem like Aftyn is winning.

Yesssss!!!!!!! Omg I love this arc so much 💖💖💖

My winning 2023 slogan: ”Fixing Roads. Feeding Kids.”

2024: I gave the go-ahead to @lynleethorne.bsky.social for Rural GroundGame to use “Good Neighbors: Feed Kids. Fix Roads. Vote [Democratic ticket].”

2025: @aftynbehn.bsky.social put her own spin on it.

Why? It’s about getting the basics right.

I would trade my twin brother to a random demon or fairy for a couple reports on the lines at Bordeaux.

I'm pretty certain that if Aftyn sent a request cosigned by Indivisible and other local groups and from the VA groups that were helping TN get going someone on the Bernie left will show up. Sara Nelson and Rose Ann De Moro are very approachable as is Ro Khanna. Jack Califano and the boys also.

@indivisnashville.bsky.social Ya'll have any reports on Bordeaux today? Lentz is *slammed*, Hillwood and Madison are decently active. Metro as well. No info on Bellevue or Bordeaux. Looking good for 3k but I'd love to hear about the Bordeaux line to see if 4k is on the table.

Although Votehub seems to have precinct data. Curious what the map will look like at the end of EV vs what it was at on Sunday.

Based on the 2022 EV percentages we are looking at 42,000 in Montgomery. I'm gonna poke the campaign and see how they feel about that and whether they think it is from high Clarksville turnout. Sadly Montgomery doesn't multiple voting locations to predict where the votes are.

If we assumed, for the hypothetical, that the EV percentages are identical to 2022, we are looking at 42,000 votes for Montgomery based on 19,000 EV.

Behn wants to win Montgomery by 5%, or worst case tie it, which I think is quite possible if the last week of the campaign really locks in. It is sort of the "bellwether county" for TN7. The higher the votes in Montgomery the more likely Behn is to win in my view.

If the rally pops off on like Dec 1 or Nov 30, Republicans won't have time to put together a response and Dvadison and Montgomery will wash over the rurals like an avalanche.

Course if the Davidson total today hits the target I think it will, maybe you don't even need them.

Ya'll gotta get together with the other orgs involved and do a little social media campaign to Sara Nelson, Rose Ann De Moro, Danica Roem, Ro Khanna and a few other lefty people with the hook up and get them and Bernie, Sandy, and Spanberger, etc. to do a surprise rally in the big counties.

Given the reduction in prime voting hours in the afternoon and reports of long lines at 12PM which is why it took so long to report, yes. Great news.

Man I typed 3 skeets and missed it... I'm getting old and slow now that I turned 35. Is Williamson gonna beat Montgomery? If they don't that's terrible news for Rs.

Meanwhile Davidson is going nuts.

Spanberger absolutely *killed* in the suburbs in VA race. I remember telling people Chesterfield +17 and getting laughed at. People did not respect the CIA suburban soccermom vibe nearly enough. No slight on Aftyn but I think a TN version of Spanberger woulda flipped Williamson, not just Montgomery.

If the Dems overall get their shit together this will be a much safer win. Sending Spanberger and Sherrill out to Montgomery or Williamson would probably jucie both Dem turnout and voter persuasion. Obviously they are busy but that actually shows voters how serious this is in my view.

Totally unrelated, just hypothetically, if you could get Bernie, Sandy(AOC), Spanberger, Sherrill, Warnock, Ossoff, or Van Hollen into Davidson/Montgomery who do you think would excite voters more and who would you think fit better where?

If Davidson could hit say 22,000-23,000 total votes in EV it'd be very hard to find enough votes in the rural and exurban counties to challenge that. Do wonder if we'll see 50% election day vote share or more like the 30% in 2024.

I'm estimating a median result of Aftyn +60 in Davidson, so running up the vote total is crucial. As is having a more pro-Aftyn demographic. Although I heard Hillwood had a decent amount of older white fellas. Lucky that's the slowest location in EV.

Behn wants a lower turnout at Williamson if possible. Makes it easier for Montgomery to counteract the net vote count for Republicans so that Davidson can match up clean against the rural counties.

Man that's good news. Some people in line may be better off driving to Metro or Hillwood but ah well, their choice. Hoping for 1,000 votes out of Lentz today at least.

That's scary honestly. Implies that Williamson could hit 1400-1800. Still Davidson looking on track for a huge day. Montgomery still had a huge line at 12PM so that is probably why their update isn't out yet.

Care to guess the final Davidson number?

Hey, I've been told on Reddit, 100+ people for the last 45 minutes or so waiting in line? Do they have all 4 check in lanes open? With 8 voting booths and only one thing on the ballot you'd expect like 196 people per hour to be able to vote if everything is humming along.

Any reports on Bordeaux???