Dominik Schraff

"But at the beginning of the period of my investigation, it was actually possible to disappear on Danish soil and become someone else. And by the end of the period in 1850, that became almost impossible" Johan Heinsen.

ML showing it's possible power as a tool in research.

#skystorian #skystorians

Iceland looks to fast-track vote on joining EU A referendum on resuming membership talks had been expected in 2027, but could come as early as this August.

🚨🚨Biggest #EU news of today: #Iceland looks to fast-track vote on joining EU as referendum on EU accession could come as early as August, departing from original plan for 2027 ref. 🧵
www.politico.eu/article/icel...

A Matter of Solidarity: A New Approach to Revive Article 7 TEU Against Hungary Viktor Orbán increasingly undermines the EU’s collective interests. The Hungarian government systematically uses its veto powers to block Ukrainian military aid and accession negotiations and to dilu...

Perhaps a good time to bring up again our proposal with @dimitrispieker.bsky.social and Ulrich Karpenstein on how to suspend Hungary’s voting rights based on a breach of solidarity in CFSP: www.delorscentre.eu/en/publicati...

Hungary blocks €90bn EU loan to Ukraine days before war anniversary Viktor Orbán has intensified his anti-Ukraine rhetoric ahead of elections where he risks being toppled

This would be quite an escalation by Orbán - as he promised at the European Council in December to exactly not veto this, as long as Hungary was not part of the Enhanced Cooperation. This would make it a huge breach of trust (if there is any left).

This Hungarian veto is poised to trigger outrage because:
- The loan was agreed at the highest level by EU leaders
- Hungary secured an opt-out through enhanced cooperation
- Ukraine needs the money no later than April
- Von der Leyen and Costa will be in Kyiv next week for the fourth anniversary

Democracy and disadvantage: How subjective group relative deprivation undermines democratic support | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core Democracy and disadvantage: How subjective group relative deprivation undermines democratic support - Volume 65 Issue 1

65.1🦋

Resentment and democracy under strain ✊

@mfilsinger.bsky.social & Steffen Wamsler of @ecpr-ead.bsky.social show how #SGRD shapes not only radical political support, but also citizens’ commitment to democracy 🏛️ drawing on survey data 📊 across six European countries

1/ Sorry for double-posting from X. Sharing a new working paper for the Year of the Horce 🐎:

"An AI-assisted workflow that scales reproducibility in empirical research" (bit.ly/repro-ai) w/ Leo Yang Yang

PhD student in International Relations The Department of Economic History and International Relations is a dynamic and strong education and research department at the Faculty of Social Sciences at Stockholm University. Its International Re

📚 2 PhD positions in International Relations at @stockholm-uni.bsky.social! The positions are linked to my ERC-project about local change and public support for protectionism #academicsky #polisky
Deadline April 10, 2026, apply here! 👇
su.varbi.com/en/what:job/... -
su.varbi.com/what:job/job...

Beyond partisanship: Ideological identities and affective evaluations | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core Beyond partisanship: Ideological identities and affective evaluations

#AffectivePolarization ≠ only #Partisanships 🎉

Ida Bæk Hjermitslev & @markuswagner.bsky.social widen the lens on political identity, looking in Germany, where ideological identities (left/right) are as strong as party IDs and shape how people judge others 🤔

As expected, all three votes today on the aspects of the 'safe third countries' list at EU level were carried by the EPP with the three far-right parties.

Each of the votes looked like a variation of this (data via @howtheyvote.eu):

Campaigns do matter: The impact of campaigns in reducing framing effects | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core Campaigns do matter: The impact of campaigns in reducing framing effects - Volume 65 Issue 1

65.1🦋

Do campaigns matter? 🤔

Denmark’s 2022 EU defence opt-out vote show that #Campaign information matters. While fear-based messages influences #Voters at the start, their effect declines as voters learn more.

@rsenninger.bsky.social, J.Fenger & D.Beach of @ecprsgeu.bsky.social

Are the Politically Active Better Represented? - Political Behavior Political participation is considered an important path for people to influence politics. However, whether those who participate actually see more of their preferred policies implemented remains an op...

🧵I am happy to announce a new article in Political Behavior @polbehavior.bsky.social, “Are the Politically Active Better Represented?”, co-authored with @jenny-oser.bsky.social, @rdassonneville.bsky.social, @professormpersson.bsky.social, and Anders Sundell.
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Trump wants our attention. Let’s stop falling for his geopolitical clickbait | Catherine De Vries Whether he’s targeting Greenland, tariffs or Iran, Trump’s agenda is to distract – because a Europe that is always reacting is never planning, says political scientist Catherine De Vries

Today in @theguardian.com, I argue that Donald Trump’s foreign-policy playbook is increasingly about attention capture, or what I call geopolitical clickbait.

Plus I outline why this matters for Europe & what to do about it.

🧵

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

partycoloR is now on CRAN! Started as a simple idea 6 years ago, now it's a full-featured package. Extract party colors and logos from Wikipedia with one line of code. It's already powering ParlGov Dashboard.

install.packages("partycoloR")

Germany seems to have an issue here as well: “This means that, on average, ten out of every 100 children of academics obtain a doctoral degree, compared to only one out of every 100 children of non-academics.” www.hochschulbildungsreport2020.de/chancen-fuer...

🚨Happy to finally see this out in the @ejprjournal.bsky.social (with @leonardocarella.bsky.social)

⁉️ Does growing up when immigration is salient make people vote for parties they agree with on immigration *for the rest of their lives*?

doi.org/10.1017/S147...

How can stable personality traits explain less stable PRR voting? Daniel Komaromy, @delaneypeterson.bsky.social, @mrooduijn.bsky.social and I test whether negative contact with immigrants 'activates' these traits. Mostly, it doesn't. But: initial exposure and out-group definition may matter.

Why did antisemitism rise in Germany during the Covid pandemic? And why was this increase concentrated among political centrists, rather than on the fringes?

doi.org/10.1017/S153...

@kanol.bsky.social @wzb.bsky.social @uni-hamburg.de @politikuhh.bsky.social @socfub.bsky.social

📊 Chart of the week: EU allowance allocation and verified emissions by sector, 2005-2024

⚓ The 2026 review of the EU ETS must be anchored in facts and focus on the potential benefits of the system to EU competitiveness

🖋️ Thomas Mramor and @tagliapietra.bsky.social
🔗 buff.ly/43w2vgH
#EconSky

Friendly reminder: "If one side says it's raining and the other says it is dry, it is NOT your job to quote them both. Your job is to look out of the window and see which is the truth." – 101 Journalism

See through the lies. You're the watchdog. Bark. Bark as loud as you can.

Today, the European Parliament voted to put the Mercosur trade agreement to the European Court of Justice for review.

It was a politically momentous decision, very tight and carried by an unusual majority, so it is worth looking a bit deeper into it.

We hear it all the time:

Since the turn of the 2010s, thanks to the rise of tech, the US has pulled ahead economically.

This idea is everywhere from Washington to Davos—and it's paralyzing Europe

But it's simply not true!

Let's look at what's really happening, with charts🧵

👉Our findings suggest that the perception of scientific integrity is severely threatened during crisis – right when expertise and guidance may be needed the most.👇

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

BREAKING: Germany now on board with readying the anti-coercion instrument against 🇺🇸

“There is a legally established European toolbox for responding to economic blackmail...we should now consider using these measures,” 🇩🇪finance minister and vice chancellor Lars Klingbeil just said in Berlin.

Good timing for this @kiel.institute study on who is actually paying for Trump's tariffs (short answer: not the exporters):

While some in Europe still wonder whether Trump's US would honour Art. 5 of the NATO treaty, he is arguably breaking Art. 2 with little regard by employing conflict in international economic policy to blackmail allies:

Feels like something cracked today in the transatlantic alliance. Europeans have been swallowing their pride, bitting their tongues, and bending the knee. That strategy may have bought them time but it has now clearly failed. It also had a major cost - it has made the WH think Europe will cave. 1/

What European leaders have been most nervous about is the US pulling back on NATO or Ukraine… but how can Europe trust the US will come to its defense if its trying to seize territory from a NATO country. They can’t. So why cave to keep a security commitment that is not real. 6/

This is on the money from @pkrugman.bsky.social IMHO.

“European deterrence has worked. This is basically a howl of frustration on the part of a mad dictator who has just realized that he can’t send in the Marines.”

The 10% tariff will presumably come on top of the 15% rate introduced by the EU-US trade deal. But the text of the agreement says the 15% rate is “all inclusive”, which means no additional tariffs can be stacked.

If Trump goes ahead with the 10%, the entire deal will inevitably fall apart.