Masters of Compounding

Counterintuitive data: returns after a run-up tend to be the market average.

Irrationality is the last act, not the cause.

Markets aren’t driven by mood. They’re driven by constraints.

Bear markets: constraints build (liquidity, leverage, balance sheets) → the system turns brittle → one spark sets off a cascade.

Bull markets: constraints ease → funding flows → risk appetite returns → multiples re-rate.

Lump sum > DCA

Peace of mind comes at a price.

Have a great and disciplined day.

Anytime you buy an asset that doesn’t produce anything, you’re simply betting that someone else will pay more later for, once again, an asset that doesn’t produce anything.

I’m not judging, I’m just stating a fact. (That’s probably too often overlooked.)

Have a great and disciplined day.

Charlie Munger’s edge: collect the “big ideas” from every discipline, then apply them relentlessly.

I pulled 50 mental models from 50 fields.
Part 2 just dropped.

Link in bio or below.👇

Is it different this time?

I know what you’re about to say.

Have a great and disciplined Sunday.

A Not-So-Random Walk Down Wall Street

Fund underperformance isn’t just an equities problem, it shows up in fixed income too.

ETFs are set to shrink active funds to near zero… except for the rare managers who can outperform consistently.

Have a great and disciplined day.

Long-term investing isn’t “holding the same stocks for decades.”

It’s having a multi-decade time horizon for your portfolio, and building and reshaping it over time accordingly.

The nuance sounds trivial. The consequences absolutely aren’t.

Two insights jump out from this chart:
- The worst days are often clustered with the best days.
- “Worst” vs “best” is mostly a time-horizon problem, zoom out and it flips.

Have a great and disciplined day.

He said he understood, then admitted they’re told to call when an account goes quiet. No trades, no business.

Investing isn’t just battling your own psychology. It’s also battling the entire industry.

At least it was funny.

One of my brokers called and asked if I was having trouble with their platform, because I haven’t placed an order in months.

I politely explained it was intentional, and that I tend to perform better when I pick a few truly great opportunities and then don’t touch them.

Have a great and disciplined day.

Great management builds the culture, the culture builds the moat, and the moat delivers high returns on equity for shareholders."

François Rochon on the origins of the moat:
"If I had to pick one criterion to judge where a company’s moat is heading, it’s the managers.

Moats aren’t built by angels. They’re built by people.

What makes a moat grow is culture. And culture doesn’t come from thin air—it comes from the top.

The long-term growth “sweet spot” → reallocating 20-25% of capital across divisions every year.

In reality, fewer than 1% of companies do it.

It’s survival of the fittest, and that’s why status quo bias is probably the #1 killer of companies.

1/3 of companies founded in the U.S. in 1998 were still alive seven years later. Across all sectors.

It’s worth rethinking whether your sector diversification is actually appropriate.

Thinking against yourself is a daily battle.
It can make fortunes, or quietly destroy them.

Charles Darwin kept a habit: he wrote down ideas that went against his intuition, because he knew his mind would “forget” inconvenient evidence if he didn’t.

If even one of the great contrarians of his time had to fight confirmation bias that hard, humility is non-negotiable.

Here’s a finance syllogism:

Premise 1: The cost of debt keeps rising.

Premise 2: Governments’ go-to way to reduce debt burdens is the same: inflation.

Conclusion: Own real assets, or get quietly taxed by a weakening currency.

Thanks, Aristotle.

Have a great and disciplined day.

Lump sum > DCA.

Never DCA unless it’s a behavioral crutch, not an edge. But a crutch with a cost.

This chart is incredible

It captures so many different concepts at once: technology, psychology, economics, finance, sociology, physics, etc.

If you know a great book that explains this chart from multiple angles, please share it.

Have a great and disciplined day.