Tom Bonier

Why We Built the Media Buying Platform In today’s digital advertising landscape, political campaigns face a paradox. While digital advertising is more powerful and targetable than ever, the infrastructure behind it is increasingly opaque, ...

Our mission has always been about giving our clients the tools/data they need to reach their targets. Which is why we built the Media Buying Platform. Read more about how it can be your secret weapon, while making your valuable ad spend go much further.

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I'll be on with Edwin shortly!

In case you missed here, here's the recording of my session with @simonwdc.bsky.social yesterday. It's a bit of a good news/bad news presentation, but the bottom line is, there are great opportunities in front of us. www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/dems-need-...

LIVE SOON: Tom Bonier Comes By With Some New Data and Analysis Starting Jun 20 at 2:15 PM EDT

I'll be joining @simonwdc.bsky.social later today to share some data/analysis for the first time publicly, focused on what happened in 2024 and where things stand now. You can view it here... open.substack.com/live-stream/...?

Trump is the biggest fuck up in American history.

Over on The Hellsite, JD Vance has now functionally called for an end to due process for migrants. His argument is riddled with deceptions, bad faith, and embarrassingly awful logic. I think it needs a real response, so here's what I put up over there.

First, his 20 million number is fiction. 1/

This is all happening while white voters are registering at a lower rate. So how is GOP registration share increasing? They are doing somewhat better with Hispanic and AAPI voters than they did in the past, while Dem share is dropping (unaffiliated is increasing the most).

As a cautionary note, we also have data from NC that is somewhat recent (through Feb 21st). In this case, looking at just the period since Trump took office, Republicans continue to outregister Dems.

I will add - the slides above were looking at new reg in VA since Election Day last year. In this case, I limited it to just since Trump took office. You will see that modeled Dem registration has spiked under Trump. We'll see if this continues, and is replicated elsewhere.

Finally, by modeled partisanship (VA doesn't have party reg), the models think the new registrants are much less GOP than they were in the past two gov election years in VA. These are models, so take it with a grain of salt.

If we look at race/ethnicity, the new registrants in VA are also less white. The same notion mentioned above applies - Trump made inroads with these voters in 2024, but seems to have lost ground with them as president.

The new registrants are also younger than in years past. Of course, these demographic analyses have become more fraught in that Republicans have made inroads with young voters, esp young men and voters of color. But recent polls show these voters abandoning Trump of late.

First, if you look at where the new registrants are coming from compared to the same time period in 2021 and 2017, they are much more heavily from urban areas. Over the past 4 years nationally, rural areas have been overperforming, so this is a noticeable change.

I've been waiting for this, since VA has elections this year, and likely has more people immediately impacted by the Musk/DOGE cuts than any other state. What we're seeing in quite interesting.

I've been direct in recent weeks, noting that Dem deficiencies in voter registration have persisted in the few states where files have been updated since Jan 20th, though also noting those updates covered only a few weeks of the Trump admin. Now we have a VA file through Feb.

Amen!

As an aside, I've coached my daughter's sports teams for the past 11 years. I've been a commissioner for a softball program covering hundreds of athletes each season. Not once has the issue of trans girls been raised as an issue.

Trump is busy destroying the country, so naturally leading Dems are fighting back by attacking trans women.

True, both this year and last year they mentioned that he lives within 1km from the finish a lot in the last stage.

Great to see two Americans winning in Paris-Nice today,
@magnussheffield.bsky.social taking the stage and @matteojorgenson.bsky.social winning the overall (and conducting his podium interview in what appears to be flawless French). It's nice to have positive representatives of our country overseas.

Deregulation: so people can die for cheaper eggs

We should figure out who is in charge of this company that keeps failing at space and make sure they are never put in charge of anything to do with our government.

To: All SEC Employees From: Ken Johnson, Chief Operating Officer Date: March 3, 2025 Subject: RE: Update on LARO, PLRO and CHRO Leases As some of you might be aware, the General Services Administration (GSA) has been involved in a process across federal agencies to review office space leases and potential options for reducing space and related costs. GSA has now decided to end all federal leases goverment-wide where GSA can do so unilaterally and where the agency is not providing direct services to the public. As part of this decision, GSA recently informed us it has decided to teminate the building leases for the Los Angeles Regional Office (LARO) and the Philadelphia Regional Office (PLRO). GSA retains the sole authority to terminate the leases because they manage those leases on our behalf. To be clear, these lease terminations are not associated with any reorganization or reduction in force plan regarding SEC personnel, but rather apply solely to SEC space. As part of the initiative described above, GSA also notified us they intend to terminate the lease for the Chicago Regional Office (CHRO). The SEC has responded to the Administration and pointed out that CHRO's lease terms are different iand do not allow for unilateral GSA termination without significant financial penalties. We will keep you posted as we learn more about GSA's decisions. The SEC will be working with GSA on the process for finding new space for these offices. We understand that GSA aims to have the space exited by the end of August 2025 for PLRO and CHRO, and the end of September 2025 for LARO. It is the SEC's intent that if new office locations are not ready by the time the GSA-initiated lease terminations take effect, then the affected SEC staff will be placed on full-time telework. We will provide more information as we learn it. Thank you.

BREAKING — The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has just announced the closure of major regional offices in Philly, LA and Chicago, per email shared with me.

“5 alarm fire,” SEC employee tells me.

Full email text:

Here's the thing: when you fire a lot of people at Twitter and something breaks (ie, you make a mistake), the consequences are minimal. I can't believe that this needs to be said, but Twitter ≠ the federal government. Mistakes can cost lives.

I'm late to sharing this, but I'm so disappointed in MSNBC's decision regarding @joyannreid.bsky.social. Joy was unafraid to call out those in power, which certainly made her some enemies, but IMO also made her indispensable. And beyond that, she is a good human. We need more of all of this.

The wealthiest man in the world spent hundreds of millions of dollars to put Trump in power, and one of the first things he did was to starve children. You decide if that was a feature or a bug.

While your overall point stands, our anthem getting booed in Canada isn't exactly a new thing.

The only message we can take from the Chiefs getting shut out in the first half is clearly that God is angry at Harrison Butker.

Yes we Ken!!!

Live Updates: Control Tower Staffing Was ‘Not Normal’ During Deadly Crash, F.A.A. Report Says

So the tower was understaffed, yet our President, VP, SecDef, and Sec of Transportation faced the press and universally blamed DEI.

Perhaps because they are in the midst of actively understaffing every single federal department.
nytimes.com/live/2025/01...