Tom Bonier

Not every vote is in (the outlined counties don't have >95% counted, and Maverick hasn't reported at all), but this shows the swing between Harris' margin in '24 and the Dem margin in yesterday's primary turnout. You can see in south Texas the shifts were >100%.

Let's keep in mind, the GOP reportedly spent upwards of $80 million on their primaries in Texas, well more than double the amount spent by Dems.

Here are 4 districts the TX GOP gerrymandered to gain seats in November, with the Dem and GOP primary vote. Dems outvoted GOPs in every one of them.

Wow, the Dem primary turnout among Hispanic voters in Texas is going to be giving the GOP sweats for the next 8 months.

Take Zapata County - turnout in the Dem primary there yesterday was 143% the total number of votes Harris won in the 2024 general election. That's wild.

There are only 348 voters in the cell so I wouldn’t read too much into it.

You're welcome!

Here's a better version with it sorted by partisanship gaps, and with the N size included for each group

Some notes:
- Black women are leading the way with the biggest Dem advantage across every age group
- Black men are also showing huge Dem margins
- Dems lead in every single group of under age 30 voters, even white men
- GOPs don't have an advantage with any group <50

I made this monster of a chart to show the partisan split of the early/abs vote in the TX primary by age/race/gender.

You can see why Republicans must be worried about what they're seeing in the turnout data.

A short thread on letting go of Zombie, pre-Trump 2025-2026 understanding of politics......

We are in a new era. Strategists must stay close to the events of today, to the data in front of us, and not bring old understandings to cloud or hamper with what must be done now. 1/

Republicans seem to in denial of the wild unpopularity of their actions, and the looming political disaster they are speedwalking into.

In 2020 GOP turnout exceeded Dem by 7.1%, and by 6.4% in 2022 and 2024. Yet in 2025, Dem turnout in PA exceed GOP turnout by 8%. That's a swing of close to 15 pts in favor of Dems, just in turnout.

We have the turnout data now from the 2025 election in PA that saw the Dems sweep the statewide judicial races, as well as downballot races.

Dem turnout swamped a depressed GOP base. If I were GOPs, I'd be more than a little worried about the upcoming midterms.

I have to assume it is some combination of lack of mobility and higher death rates (it can take some time for people to be purged from the voter rolls).

As far as total turnout by party, here are the differentials from 2021 to 2025. GOP turnout actually increased over 2021, but only slightly. Dem turnout saw a massive increase of 14.7 pts.

There was a massive youth vote surge in NJ this year. In 2021 voters under 30 accounted for 7.1% of all votes cast. This year they were 11.5% of the electorate.

Look at turnout by age/party in New Jersey - Dems outperformed GOPs in turnout % among every age <45, with the biggest advantage among 21 and 22 year olds (+10% Dem turnout).

Past special elections with massive swings to Dems could be explained away by GOPs, because turnout was relatively low. Not this one. Republicans should be deeply concerned.

There you have it. With Davidson County reporting every precinct now, TN7 turnout is at 179,634, just barely short of the 181,822 turnout in the 2022 general election. I wouldn't be surprised if it exceeds it when all votes are counted.

Just in the last few mins more votes have come in, and total turnout in this special stands at 96% of the 2022 November election. With more votes coming in Nashville, it could EXCEED 2022.

The GOP can't explain this double digit swing away with their old excuses of low turnout.

Sorry, just pointing out the miscommunication between you and the OP. Turnout now is at 96% of 2022 total turnout.

Updating - total reported turnout in the TN7 special is now 168k, or 93% of the total votes cast in the November, 2022 midterm general election, a race the GOP won by 22 pts. The GOP has some serious issues right now.

Currently standing at 93% of 2022 turnout, with 9 precincts in Davidson still to be reported, and a handful throughout the rest of the district.

Nah, it is currently at 93% of 2022 GE turnout. It's a big deal.

While I'm sure GOPs are breathing a sigh of relief for the short term here, they have to be very concerned about how the electorate is abandoning them.

Total turnout in this special election race is approaching 90% of the last midterm's (2022) general election turnout. This was a VERY high turnout special election, and still saw a double digit swing away from GOPs.

The Dem (Behn) will fall short in the TN7 special, but what happened was a double digit margin swing from last year.

GOPs try to explain these special elections away by saying they are just low turnout and their voters will come out next November.

That's not true here...

I hear you, but this is going to end up being a double digit margin swing to Dems. Obviously a win would have been very, very, nice but this is a bad sign for Republicans.

Davidson County dropped 21 of 58 precincts eday vote. An incredibly strong performance for Behn, but just not enough of an overperformance in terms of swing or turnout to overcome the +22 GOP baseline in the district.

Nobody knows, except maybe the people currently tallying those votes!