Liana Fix

Europe’s Next Hegemon The perils of German power.

🇩🇪🪖Very interesting article by @lianafix.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com on the threat that German “rearmament” could pose to Europe if the #AfD came to power - even though I’m doubtful about the motives behind the “revanchist” territorial claims of the AfD
www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/euro...

🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷 A bombshell? Not quite but President Macron went further than expected this afternoon in announcing progress towards a strengthened “European dimension” for France’s nuclear deterrent. 1/

French President Emmanuel Macron has just given a truly remarkable speech on France's nuclear policy at a moment of great anxiety in Europe. I wanted to offer an early comment. Welcome to the age of 'Dissuasion Avancée' in Europe.

New post: panda.substack.com/p/dissuasion...

Coordinated with Macron - sometimes that Franco-German cooperation does work - Merz announces that France and Germany have set up a 'nuclear steering group' and that DE will participaty with conventional forces in French nuclear exercises.

Europe’s Next Hegemon The perils of German power.

“German rearmament could very well yield a Europe that is more divided, mistrustful, and weaker,” warns @lianafix.bsky.social.

Europe’s Next Hegemon The perils of German power.

Inzichtelijk essay van @lianafix.bsky.social over Duitsland als Europa's dominante (militaire) macht, welke gevolgen heeft dat voor de veiligheidsverhoudingen & stel dat AfD in de regering komt, hoe zou je dan haar macht kunnen beheersen

www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/euro...

Thank you, Nicolai - any and all feedback welcome, and will be part of my forthcoming book „Germany Rearmed - The Return of War and the End of Illusions“

Yes - Merz needs to address the China shock…

Can Germany Afford to Be Europe’s Protector? A stronger military requires a stronger economy.

Can Germany afford to be Europe's protector? Sudha David-Wilp and I argue for @foreignaffairs.com that Germany's path to a military power in Europe is only viable with economic reform - otherwise, the Merz government may face domestic crisis. www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/can-...

Can Germany Afford to Be Europe’s Protector? A stronger military requires a stronger economy.

Read @sdavidwilp.bsky.social and @lianafix.bsky.social on how German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his grand coalition can reboot Berlin’s economy—and keep the country’s far right at bay:

Mit Beiträgen u.a. von @mlewandowsky.bsky.social und @anneuenfeld.bsky.social, @johnkampfner.bsky.social, @ardenthistorian.bsky.social, @sophiabesch.bsky.social und @lianafix.bsky.social, @havpost.bsky.social, @joerglau.bsky.social...

Wer Trump umarmt, braucht ein starkes Rückgrat Die Europäer haben im vergangenen Jahr den Fokus darauf gelegt, dem US-Präsidenten zu schmeicheln.

New from @sophiabesch.bsky.social and myself: internationalepolitik.de/de/wer-trump...

This is a big deal. Essentially a reversal of the US export control policy on advanced chips. Possibly decisive in the AI race. Compute is our main advantage — China has more power, engineers, and the entire edge layer — so by giving this up we increase the odds the world runs on Chinese AI.

Is Trump's Ukraine Peace Deal a Faustian Bargain? Trump's proposal would cross multiple Ukrainian and European red lines, but there could also be opportunities for further negotiations.

"The structure and scale of the 28-point peace plan suggests that the Trump administration believes it can convince Ukraine to accept some of the red lines in return for vague U.S. security guarantees," writes Europe expert @lianafix.bsky.social

Rebuilding Europe's defences: How to unlock a coordinated defence surge The EU can help drive a European defence surge, both by unlocking additional funding and fostering deeper cooperation.

New piece for @euiss.bsky.social

Europe’s effort to rebuild its defences hinges on whether Europeans can cooperate more effectively with each other and with Ukraine. EU instruments can play a key role in driving this effort forward.

www.iss.europa.eu/publications...

Nuclear Weapons At China's 2025 Victory Day Parade - Federation of American Scientists This buildup appears to contradict China's obligations under the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and could well stimulate nuclear buildups in the United States and India.

We nuke nerds at @scientistsorg.bsky.social published a piece this morning on the nuclear weapons displayed during China's 2025 Victory Day Parade.

Read here for everything you need to know! 👇

fas.org/publication/...

One final prediction and I will shut up. No matter what is said inside the room, or what Trump would be willing to agree to, Putin will still push too hard, demand too much and overplay his hand. Because that's exactly what he has been doing for years and has neither desire nor capacity to change

What to Expect From the Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are holding their first bilateral meeting since 2019 with the fate of Ukraine’s war seemingly in the balance. Three CFR experts assess the prospects for bes…

Terrific primer ahead of today's #AlaskaSummit by my @cfr.org colleagues Charles A. Kupchan, @lianafix.bsky.social, and Paul B. Stares. www.cfr.org/article/what...

Europe builds for war as arms factories expand at triple speed FT radar analysis reveals historic scale of rearmament, stretching over 7mn sq metres of new development

The data shows that Europe’s long-promised defence revival, driven by an injection of public subsidies, is beginning to materialise not just in policy rhetoric or spending pledges but also in concrete and steel

on.ft.com/46OwOFn

Nachdem Armenien und Aserbaidschan ihr gemeinsam ausgearbeitetes Friedensabkommen in Washington paraphiert und damit inhaltlich festgeschrieben haben, hat es die Regierung in Jerewan veröffentlicht. Das ist nach Jahrzehnten des Konflikts historisch. www.mfa.am/en/press-rel...

Donald Trump und Wladimir Putin: Das ist keine neue Phase, das ist eine neue Realität Donald Trump hat Wladimir Putin eine Frist gesetzt. Ist das schon ein Politikwechsel? Deutschland muss die Zeit nutzen für eine neue Art der Scheckbuchdiplomatie.

Mein Stück für Die Zeit, in dem ich argumentiere, dass es wieder dt. Scheckbuchdiplomatie braucht: unabhängig davon ob Trump‘s Russland deadline und Kehrtwende bestehen bleibt, muss DE den langfristigen Einkauf von US-Waffen für die Ukraine sichern, nicht nur ad hoc: 👉 www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...

Forging ahead: Russia sidesteps sanctions to import Austrian machinery for making howitzer barrels A Spanish company has supplied Russia with an Austrian radial forging machine. According to an investigation by The Insider, Russia’s production of artillery barrels relies entirely on this type of eq...

Forging ahead: Russia sidesteps sanctions to import Austrian machinery for making howitzer barrels

A Spanish company has supplied Russia with an Austrian radial forging machine.

NATO Agrees to a Big Increase in Military Spending, Pleasing Trump

“In an ideal world, Ukraine and Russia should have been the top priority at the summit,” @lianafix.bsky.social said. “But in a Donald Trump world, it’s understandable why major allies choreographed it the way they did.” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/25/w...

This morning, @remkorteweg.bsky.social, @camillegrand.bsky.social, @robdewijk.bsky.social and @lianafix.bsky.social looked at the highlights of the NATO summit in The Hague and the alliance's near future.

📺Full session at The NATO Public Forum: t.co/yUJja0EGc6

🔴Wednesday at 08.00: Looking Ahead at Today's North Atlantic Council

Expert panel with @remkorteweg.bsky.social,
@robdewijk.bsky.social, @lianafix.bsky.social,
@camillegrand.bsky.social, moderated by Ikenna Azuike.

📺Stream: www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2Hj...

Can NATO Keep It Together? Nine thinkers on next week’s summit and the alliance’s uncertain future.

9 specialisten die hun licht laten schijnen over NAVO-top volgende week:

1. @hoanssolo.bsky.social Hoe verdedigt Europa zich?
2. @lianafix.bsky.social Hoe gaat Duitsland zich verdedigen?
3. @frhoffmann.bsky.social Hoe zou Russische aanval op NAVO eruitzien?

foreignpolicy.com/2025/06/20/n...

🆕🎙️ Neue Folge „Pod und die Welt“ vor dem #NATO-Gipfel (#21)

Wie die Europäer einen Trump-Eklat in Den Haag verhindern wollen. Unter anderem darüber sprechen @mabialecki.bsky.social & Katharina Peetz mit @lianafix.bsky.social @cfr.org.

Jetzt anhören: 👉 pod-und-die-welt.podigee.io/21-europas-t...

Weathering the Storm: The Hague Summit and the Future of NATO European leaders should avoid clashing with Trump at the NATO Summit in The Hague. In the coming months and years, they should focus on increasing defense spending, further integrating Ukraine into t…

👉 www.cfr.org/article/weat... perhaps of interest for @acwlapsley.bsky.social @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social @ivodaalder.bsky.social @clingendael.bsky.social @hcss.bsky.social @remkorteweg.bsky.social @maxbergmann.bsky.social @cerianbond.bsky.social @mijrahman.bsky.social @danielfiott.bsky.social

Weathering the Storm: The Hague Summit and the Future of NATO European leaders should avoid clashing with Trump at the NATO Summit in The Hague. In the coming months and years, they should focus on increasing defense spending, further integrating Ukraine into t…

The #NATO summit in The Hague is just around the corner - what surprises should Europeans prepare for, and how can NATO's future look like in the long-term? Read Rebeca Lissner's and my new @cfr.org paper for everything you need to know 👉 www.cfr.org/article/weat...