Quantlake

SPY Thrusting Pattern: Bearish Edge Holds, QHI 60–80 Sample Thin  
Nov 7

All conds: mean -1.6%, median -0.5% | Predicted declines 56.4% (n=55)
In QHI 60–80: mean -1.3%, median -2.7% | Predicted declines 60.0% (n=5)

Result: Bearish edge persists, but QHI 60–80 sample is low confidence.

Late-stage optimism persists — SPY 1M returns in Greed zone trail the baseline.  
QHI at 61.5, Greed zone, 17th consecutive down day.  
SPY 1M returns: 0.69% vs 1.25% baseline.  
Current QHI is 20.6% below 1M avg, 29.2% below 3M avg.  
Greed streak: 13 days, longer than usual.

Stretched optimism holds — SPY 1M returns trail the baseline in Greed.  
QHI sits at 68.8, Greed zone, marking the 15th consecutive down day — a rare streak, now at a 3-month low.  
SPY 1M returns in Greed: 0.68% vs. 1.25% baseline.
Greed zone streak now 11 days, right in line with typical duration.

Clean Energy Surges, Gold Miners Rally - Real Estate, Min Volatility Flat – Wednesday

Performance Breakdown
Top 2 (by %)
ICLN +5.42%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
GDX +3.5%: Bullish Mom – Positive Sent
Bottom 2
USMV +0.14%: Neutral Mom – Neutral Sent
VNQ +0.09%: Neutral Mom – Neutral Sent

High Yield Climbs While Long Treasuries Retreat – Wednesday

Market Moves:
Top 2 (by %):
JNK +0.09%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
BNDX -0.08%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
TIP -0.37%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
TLT -1.09%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment

Small-Cap Surges, Large-Cap Growth Trails – Wednesday

Performance Breakdown:
Top 2 (by %):
SLYV +1.84%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SLYG +1.51%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
EFIV +0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IWF +0.12%: Bullish Mom. – Positive Sent.

SPY Medium White Candle: Bullish Edge Shrinks in QHI 60–80  
Nov 5

All conds: mean 0.78%, median 1.37% | Gains 65.1%  
QHI 60–80: mean 0.44%, median 0.73% | Gains 56.7%  

Result: Bullish edge shrinks in QHI 60–80; lower accuracy, softer tail risk.

Stretched optimism holds — SPY 1M returns trail the baseline in Greed.  
QHI sits at 70.2, Greed zone, with a 14-day down streak — longest since August and deeper than 83% of past runs.  
SPY 1M returns in Greed: 0.68% vs. 1.25% baseline. QHI is now 19.8% below its 3M average, marking a new low.

Bitcoin Drops, Gold Miners Retreat – Tuesday

Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
VNQ +0.17%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
USMV +0.08%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
GDX -4.24%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT -5.53%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment

Long Treasuries Edge Up While EM Bonds Retreat – Tuesday

Market Summary:
Top 2 (by %):
TLT +0.22%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
LQD +0.14%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
BNDX -0.08%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
EMB -0.11%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment

Dividend ETFs Hold Ground While Growth Leaders Retreat – Tuesday

What Happened:
Top 2 (by %):
DVY -0.38%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
SDY -0.01%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
SPYG -1.81%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
QQQ -2.03%: Bullish Mom – Positive Sent

SPY Short Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Positive Returns Persist  
Nov 4

All conds: mean 1.1% | Predicted declines 33.4%  
In QHI 60–80: mean 0.9% | Predicted declines 36.3%  

Bearish failed; QHI 60–80 kept returns positive, tail risk remains.

SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, QHI 60–80 No Help  
Nov 3

All conds: mean 1.2%, median 1.6% | Predicted declines 32.1%  
In QHI 60–80: mean 0.7%, median 1.3% | Predicted declines 34.2%  

Fact: Bearish failed overall; QHI 60–80 did not improve accuracy or risk.

Late-stage optimism holds — SPY 1M returns trail the baseline in Greed.  
Quantlake Herd Index sits at 71.7, Greed zone, 13th consecutive down day.  
SPY 1M returns in Greed: 0.68% vs 1.25% baseline.  
QHI is now 18% below its 3M average, but still 16% above the 12M mean.

Clean Energy Surges, Bitcoin Retreats – Monday

Market Moves:
Top 2 (by %):
ICLN +1.73%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SMH +0.85%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
IBB -1.2%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IBIT -2.84%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment

Short-Term vs EM Divergence – Monday

What Happened:
Top 2 (by %):
VCSH -0.03%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
VGIT -0.03%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
JNK -0.29%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
EMB -0.29%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment

S&P Growth ETFs Surge, Dividend Names Retreat – Monday

What Happened:
Top 2 (by %):
SPYG +0.50%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IWF +0.49%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
VYM -0.60%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SDY -0.83%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment

Classic update for October: growth-tilted models led—Global Buffett-Inspired +1.9% (19.3% YTD). Balanced 60/40 gained ~1.7% vs AOR 1.5%. Defensive Moderate and Conservative added 0.8% vs AOM 1.2%.

Bitcoin Climbs While Gold Miners Retreat – Friday

What Happened:
Top 2 (by %):
IBIT +3.15%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
ICLN +1.59%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
PFF -0.32%: Neutral Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
GDX -1.15%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment

Long Treasuries Retreat While EM Bonds Climb – Friday

Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
EMB +0.19%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
TIP +0.16%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
TLT -0.3%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
LQD -0.4%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment

Mid-Caps Surge, Emerging Markets Retreat – Friday

Performance Breakdown:
Top 2 (by %):
MDYG +0.60%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
IWM +0.56%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
Bottom 2:
EFIV -0.34%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
VWO -0.40%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment

Late-stage Greed persists — SPY 1M returns lag baseline.  
QHI at 72.4, Greed zone, 12-day down streak.  
SPY 1M return in Greed: 0.68% vs 1.25% baseline.  
QHI at new 3M low, -17.5% from 3M avg.  
Greed streak now 8 days, near average duration.

SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails, Gains Persist in QHI 60–80  
Oct 31

All conds: mean 1.2%, median 1.6% | Predicted declines 32.1%  
In QHI 60–80: mean 0.7%, median 1.3% | Predicted declines 34.2%

Bearish failed; QHI 60–80 saw reduced gains, but tail risk stayed high.

Gold Steadies as Real Estate Slips  

Based on 3-month ROC rankings, gold, clean energy, and semiconductors remain in the top decile of the past year.  
Real estate and crypto lag, near the lower quartile.  
Commodities and innovation maintain leadership.

Fixed Income Split: EM Bonds Lead, Treasuries Fade  

Based on 3-month ROC rankings, the iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF leads with 5.1%, still within the 80th percentile of the past year.  
Long Treasuries and investment-grade credit slipped, showing sharp week-over-week cooling.

3-month ROC snapshot: the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) rose +14.9%, narrowing the gap with the Invesco QQQ Trust (+13.7%) and iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF (+12.5%).  

Small-cap and value funds such as the SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF (SLYV) now share leadership once dominated by mega-caps.

Long Treasuries Retreat While Global Bonds Edge Higher – Thursday

Daily Snapshot:
Top 2 (by %):
BNDX +0.06%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
VGIT -0.05%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
LQD -0.53%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
TLT -0.58%: Bullish Mom. – Positive Sent.

Dividend ETFs Hold Ground as Growth Leaders Retreat – Thursday
What Happened:
Top 2 (by %):
SDY +0.16%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
VYM -0.40%: Bullish Momentum – Neutral Sentiment
Bottom 2:
QQQ -1.53%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment
SPYG -1.54%: Bullish Momentum – Positive Sentiment

Emotional investors sell winners and cling to losers
Disciplined investors rebalance
Research shows most investors lock in gains too quickly and let losses ride
That’s drift, not discipline. Vanguard proves rebalancing cuts volatility by ~16%—a calm reset, not a gamble
Time to review your portfolio

SPY Medium Black Candle: Bearish Signal Fails in Greed  
Oct 30

All conds: mean 1.2%, | Predicted declines 32.2%  
In QHI 60–80: mean 0.7%, | Predicted declines 34.2%  

Bearish signal failed—prices rose on average, tail risk persists in greed.