I see some merit in the argument that a US credit rating downgrade could eventually force the hand of DC to become more fiscally responsible, but I’m not entirely convinced. Why is the downgrade inherently good? It seems like in the near term it will force up yields and increase the cost of debt

I think your analysis is correct and insightful, but it’s probably best to steer away from the vague “elites” moniker. It is often used to be whatever the audience wants it to mean, rather than being rigorous and evidence-based.

I had no idea that vorticity had so much potential

For people thinking this is a one party problem, it’s not. Ideology seems to be playing a big role in economic sentiment

Did your momentum signal flip? Or gut?

Shelter has had a long way down. Generally leading indicators (listed rental prices) have pointed downward, but the return to normality for shelter is a long path.