Sky Kalkman

I'm calling this out because people use it for articles sometimes, and it's ignorant at best, manipulative at worst.

Just as manipulative as the "two setup guys are as productive as Tarik Skubal" argument people use for clicks.

The argument that you shouldn't take a certain type of player in the Xth round because on average they return only 70% of value is misleading. You can say that about many types of players and rounds. A lot of value comes from undrafted players. Picks are inefficient. That's known, now make a pick.

When we talk about Baby Boomers not getting off the stage: In 1997, the US president was born in 1946.

In 2007, the US president was born in 1946.

In 2017, the US president was born in 1946.

And next year in 2027? The US president will have been born in 1946.

Is six starters a must?

The Hall of Nearly Great by Sky Kalkman is a novel often discussed on Goodreads, sometimes highlighted within user-curated lists or discussions regarding books that are enjoyable but perhaps not considered "classics" or "masterpieces" by all readers. It appears to be a work that falls into the "good, not great" category. Key Aspects of The Hall of Nearly Great: Availability: Information, including quotes, is available on Goodreads and the book can be found through platforms like Amazon and Audible. Genre/Style: It is generally known to explore themes of ambition or personal growth, often resonating with readers who enjoy character-driven stories. Discussion: The book sometimes features in discussions about "nearly" great works—books that have potential but don't quite achieve the status of a literary classic.

Nailed it.

One argument against taking on lots of risk is that at a certain point, there's such a thing as *too much* positive variation. Let's say your team is all Byron Buxtons. Hitting on 70% might win you the league. Anything more is overkill.

One thing I've noticed with a bunch of pitchers who have added avg movement to their pitches this spring, whether it's increased iVB on a four-seamer or more horizontal break on a sinker or slider, is that they haven't done anything beyond last year, they've just cut out the less-moving results.

Changeup has less horizontal movement than the fastball, huh.

Ha, I'm sending it over.

6/7 of the top players available in my current draft are all catchers. I can probably wait to take one.

Love it, thanks. The other guy he was asking about was Tenace ;)

Line graph for the three players in the tweet, with seasonal WARs sorted best to worse. Tenace and Freehan are similar, with Posey clearly better in years 1-7 and ending his career a touch sooner.

Well that's cool, the WAR Graphs page at FanGraphs was revamped. There's a cool hover feature that shows all players' WAR in a specific season. One of my old ideas that I'm super proud of.

Here's Buster Posey, Gene Tenace and Bill Freehan.

www.fangraphs.com/leaders/war-...

@adarowski.bsky.social Hey, a friend is asking about catchers from yonder era and their HoFame candidacies. Any thoughts on Bill Freehan? Maybe where he ranked in your old system or why he didn't get more support?

Denzel Clarke, 2026

Forecasts account for inexperience and skills (many more skills than BABS uses) and partially accounts for injuries (missed time implies future missed time.) The missing injury part might even HELP some players, because they can explain poor past performance.

And if I may critique BABS while admitting I've only spent 15 minutes reading and thinking about it, intentionally removing precision because a numerical forecast isn't as precise as some people think it is just seems like shooting yourself in the foot.

And my question is for someone to please present a better argument than "it seems sensible". It very well might be right! The arguments are unconvincing.

Edwin and Miller mid 4th

Yep

Oh, but that's the opposite of what you're showing. Huh

It's a draft and hold, which I think means closers go higher?

Back to back picks of Jarren Duran and Johan Duran in a Fantrax draft.

Hungry like the wolf

I have some notes for a possible Bold Predictions article. One of them is Denzel Clarke with a 4 WAR season. I guess this is my 7-minute abs moment. (Jordan says 3 WAR in the article.)

Lotta factors at play here: TikTok + Citizen + NextDoor + Local TV News + X accounts that game the algorithm. Ultimately, it all stems back to the fact that everyone's walking around with a handheld video camera in their pocket these days.

Spring ballparks and slightly more extreme pitch movement in the same direction...

That would impact movement in all directions, yes?

Also worth noting what their velo is. If they’re at the upper end of their movement distribution from last year *and* they’ve gained velo, that’s even more impressive.

That's an argument for adjusting movement by velo, right? (I thought people did that, now that I think about it )

Very similar, mission accomplished.

Gotta do what you gotta do for space, but every column having it's own width is distracting to me.

Moisés Ballesteros's Exceptionally Adaptable Swing is the Key to Cubs' Offense If he could stick at catcher, he'd be a borderline superstar. Even as a designated hitter, though, Moisés Ballesteros could be the X-factor of the 2026 Cubs.

Did a whole big thing on Moisés Ballesteros and swing path this morning. I think it's illuminating. Hope you'll give it a read. northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/...