Antonio Barroso

CEA Chairman Steve Miran Hudson Institute Event Remarks Today I’d like to discuss the United States’ provision of what economists call “global public goods,” for the entire world.  First, the United States

This looks to me as the first real attempt to put all the stated goals of Trump's tariffs into some sort of framework: www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

Brilliant idea!

The EU and US should totally negotiate something like, I don’t know, a ‘Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.’

Wonder is someone has tried that before…🤔

The US's tariff plan tastes like Brexit on steroids with a dash of autarky

The US slaps tariffs on the EU. Naturally, the Hungarian government blames… the EU.

Still unclear whether the US is using tariffs to raise revenue or as a negotiation tactic.

The result: more policy uncertainty ahead.

Watching the hegemon attempt geopolitical suicide in real time is wild

The EU is trying to de-escalate economic tensions with the US, but Washington’s push for extraterritorial anti-DEI policies is only going to make that harder…

The US embassy in Paris has reportedly sent letters to several French firms asking them to confirm they don’t have DEI policies in place (implying they could lose access to US government contracts if they do).

www.lesechos.fr/industrie-se...

Germany Urges EU to Ease Fiscal Rules to Boost Defense Funds Germany called for the European Union to reform its fiscal rules to allow countries to make bigger defense expenditures, a massive shift for a country known for its spending restraint.

Eurozone crisis veterans cannot believe their eyes right now
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Since Feb 2024 there has been a 16pt drop in the British public's willingness to aid the USA in the event of an attack, while attitudes towards other countries remain unchanged

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Good point but they do not have the numbers to block anything (except for debt brake reform given CDU/SPD/Greens don't have the required 2/3rds debt majority).

But yes, they will make a lot of noise.

First an SPD chancellor who completely clung to US leadership and refused to do anything to support Ukraine without the US. Now a (likely) CDU chancellor who says Europe needs to decouple from the US.

What a time to be alive

So far not looking great for the prospects of debt brake reform. CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens might be some seats short of the 2/3rds majority needed for constitutional revision

What could success of Die Linke mean for security policy? Key points from their manifesto👇:

- Disarm 🇩🇪🇪🇺

- Build security architecture with 🇨🇳🇮🇳🇷🇺

- End 🇩🇪 military missions

- 🇩🇪 Military should be uncapable of attack

- No 🇩🇪🇪🇺 nuclear weapons/participation

- Fewer weapons for 🇺🇦, negotiations instead

And 3. ⏳ How long will it take to form a government?

Parties took a looong time to form a coalition after the last two elections. Unclear whether the difficult economic and geopolitical context will help accelerate negotiations this time.

2. 🏛️ # parties in the Bundestag: the more parties, the more likely the election winner might need + than one coalition partner.

Another thing to watch is whether CDU/SPD/Greens will have the necessary 2/3 majority to reform debt brake.

Three issues we will be watching when polls close in 🇩🇪 at 6pm local time.

1. 🎯 Accuracy of opinion polls: German pollsters were relatively accurate in the last election. Will there be any surprises this time?

Live From Munich: Trump Hands Europe the Bill for Ukraine Trumponomics · Episode

In this bonus episode of Trumponomics, recorded at the Munich Security Conference, @albertonardelli.bsky.social and I talk to Stephanie Flanders about Trump’s pivot on Ukraine, Europe’s response, and what it all means for transatlantic relations.
open.spotify.com/episode/6NWW...

US swing states: from battlegrounds for votes to frontlines of a trade war

The Conservative Party is certainly reaping the benefits of Brexit, like polling third behind the party that truly wanted Brexit.

Take away from the first two hour of Trump 2.0: Grievance and culture wars > Trade Wars.

Not sure if that will last.

Trump threatens Denmark with economic retaliation on Greenland In a rambling news conference, the president-elect also repeated the idea of the US taking over Canada and the Panama Canal.

If that happens, I can’t think of a clearer case for the EU to use its anti-coercion instrument www.bbc.com/news/article...

Doesn’t France have a fully functioning government? A weak one, granted, but still fully functioning

Barnier Risks Government Collapse With French Budget Gambit French Prime Minister Michel Barnier used a constitutional tool to push through parts of his unpopular budget bill without a parliamentary vote, raising the prospect lawmakers could dissolve his gover...

Le Pen and Melenchon seem determined to put as much pressure as possible on Macron to resign.

For them, 2027 feels too far away. Time is running out politically—and, in Le Pen’s case, potentially legally.

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Repeat again and again: if you try to copy the original, people will prefer the original to the copy👇

Some important context: 1) this is a draft; 2) of course Hungary wants to weaken screening; 3) sectoral list provides minimum baseline, does not prevent member states from stricter standards; 4) let’s learn what the bigger members with more advanced tech think.

Screening in the EU is about having as much information as possible.

Very few screened transactions get blocked.

EU capitals try to gut investment screening rules aimed at keeping China out Compromise text deletes list of critical technologies where foreign investment deals would have to be notified to the EU executive and other member countries.

This would be a mistake if confirmed: EU member states reducing the scope of technologies that would be subject to FDI screening
www.politico.eu/article/eu-c...

Very cool research!

I wonder whether there is similar data for France, which would help explain farmers' outsized political influence (and politicians' fear of trade agreements)

This is great. Thanks for doing it and for including me!