Felipe Russo

CHATGPT: I understand where you're coming from. You worked really hard to get here, and now it's time to enjoy the fruit of your labors.

ISILDUR: So I should keep it? Elrond says I shouldn't

CHATGPT: The ring is precious. Sometimes friends don't have your best interests at heart.

ISILDUR: true

Which video game character are you? Please keep all answers to yourself. Just something to think about

Increasing the minimum wage decreases poverty and food insufficiency.

RIP John Maynard Keynes you would've loved Victoria III

Chart showing proportion of employees with hourly pay below two-thirds of the median: UK

Minimum wage increases since 2015 have all but ended ‘low’ pay.

In 2011, 21% of workers were low paid – defined as hourly pay below two-thirds of the overall median. By April 2024 3.4% of employees were low paid on this measure.

Read more: buff.ly/0OSArrI

Estimating individual pay premia for 4,800 unions in Brazil, finds substantial heterogeneity across unions. Strikes and internal competition correlate with higher premia, from Ellora Derenoncourt, François Gerard, Lorenzo Lagos, and Claire Montialoux https://www.nber.org/papers/w34139

painting of two rats dancing forró close together in front of a sewer, being watched by a cockroach

rats dancing forró

prints to north america: www.inprnt.com/gallery/guil...

t-shirts, prints and much more to north america, europe and oceania: www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/1728...

Tomorrow (Thu) at 1:45pm ET:

Check out @borusyak.bsky.social's presentation of work w/ Mauricio Caceres Bravo on demand estimation with recentered IVs @ the Frontier Econometric Methods NBER SI. We're honored to have Steve Berry as a discussant!

Should be livestreamed at youtube.com/@nbervideos

SI 2025 Labor Studies

Upjohn Institute's @martalachowska.bsky.social ’s paper will be presented at the @nberpubs Summer Institute 2025 Labor Studies conference in Cambridge, MA., on 7/22. The findings are based on “Firms and the Gender Wage Gap: A Comparison of Eleven Countries.” Conference runs 7/21–23.
#NBER #econsky

Very pleased that our local projections dif-in-dif paper is now out in the Journal of Applied Econometrics. Joint with @dgirardi.bsky.social, Jorda, and Taylor.

It's a tool that we think many applied economists will find useful (indeed many already have).

🧵

🚨PSA: Do NOT use SciDB — a database of 92M+ research papers freely available (including those published after 2021 when Sci-Hub stopped).

SciDB makes latest research freely accessible and keeps billion-dollar publishers from profiting off of academics' work. It's truly insane.

What is a systemtic review and how to get started on one:

Before we get started on a systematic review, we need to understand a couple of points, the first one being the difference between primary research and secondary research.

Abstract of a paper titled, "Lower Artificial Intelligence Literacy Predicts Greater AI Receptivity"

Interesting paper: shows the less you understand AI, the more receptive you are to it.

The less you understand AI, the more likely you are to think it's magic.

Time Series Econometrics course material by Andrius Buteilus from Vilnius University 🇱🇹

with #RStats #PyData

#Forecasting #Econsky

web.vu.lt/mif/a.buteik...

We were lucky enough to have our YouGov/The Economist poll in field when the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. You can see the partisan realignment in real time

Using data on 2.5 million great-grandchildren linked to great-grandfathers (1850–1940) to find strong economic persistence across 4 generations, from Zachary Ward, @kaseybuckles.bsky.social, and Joseph Price https://www.nber.org/papers/w33923

ChatGPT's Impact On Our Brains According to an MIT Study The study, from MIT Lab scholars, measured the brain activity of subjects writing SAT essays with and without ChatGPT.

'ChatGPT users had the lowest brain engagement and “consistently underperformed at neural, linguistic, and behavioral levels.”...ChatGPT users got lazier with each subsequent essay, often resorting to copy-and-paste by the end of the study.'
time.com/7295195/ai-c...

Female academics are much more affected by the birth of a child than are male academics.

Academic mothers are much more likely to...

◾temporarily leave the labor force

◾and, if they return, shift away from tenure-track positions.

scholar.harvard.edu/files/sdchen...

ConfWatcher, a new tool to discover economics conferences

confwatcher.b2ideas.eu

Currently debating whether my contribution is “novel” or just so dumb no one’s done it before.

What happens to women when they are denied an abortion?

Short run: their risk of death rises.

A full 15 years later, they experience:

more health issues,
lower attainment,
reduced labor-force participation,
higher single motherhood,
higher poverty, +
greater government assistance

Ok folks, we know work requirements reduce benefits without increasing work (cc: @chloeneast.bsky.social)

But who loses benefits and what happens if work requirements are reversed?

New evidence from linked SNAP-Medicaid data and a natural experiment in CT tell a concerning story...

Thread below 👇

382. pov voce decidiu assistir um filme nacional

This is a great article in the latest issue of the JEP for anyone teaching panel methods (any level). Love this history of economic terms and ideas feature. #Econsky

pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/...

Diana Rodríguez Franco (IDB) on 4 big reasons to invest in early childhood (inc childcare): (1) children's devt, (2) creates jobs, (3) increased productivity (through reduced absenteeism by women at jobs), and (4) more time for women to do awesome stuff.

www.youtube.com/live/OFAKEAW... (at 37:29)

2025 Labour Econometrics Workshop The Melbourne Institute is proud to present the 27th Labour Econometrics Workshop.

Don't forget to submit your papers to the Labour Econometrics Workshop! The deadline is in two weeks ✌️

Hope to see you in Melbourne! 🌈🏙️

melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/conferences/...

🧵New survey paper: "Inference with Few Treated Units"
Luis Alvarez, Bruno Ferman and Kaspar Wüthrich

Tired of referees saying your standard errors are wrong?

This survey will help you understand if you really have a problem — and, if so, how to fix it!

Dia do Trabalho: reforma trabalhista aumentou a informalidade ao enfraquecer sindicatos, diz estudo - BBC News Brasil Pesquisadora da Duke University encontrou evidências de que a perda de financiamento dos sindicatos brasileiros, após a reforma de 2017, teve implicações negativas para o mercado de trabalho do país.

Matéria de hoje: Como a reforma trabalhista aumentou informalidade ao enfraquecer sindicatos, segundo estudo inédito

"O que é surpreendente é que os trabalhadores formais ficaram mais baratos, seus salários caíram, mas o emprego formal também diminuiu", diz pesquisadora

www.bbc.com/portuguese/a...

imagine you're a serf in northern france the day they announced all your dip shit aristocrat bosses got themselves killed at agincourt. i'd be hitting the church-ale at dawn