Kalani o Māui

Capacity is tight because there are far less trucking/transport companies and CDL drivers than there were a year ago due to bankruptcies and immigration crackdowns.

It’s basic supply and demand.

👇🏼

I’m old enough to remember when the U.S. was funding Osama Bin Laden. 🤦🏻‍♂️

I’m old enough to remember when the U.S. was funding Osama Bin Laden. 🤦🏻‍♂️

Yup. It’s all deflationary.

👇🏼

2/2

When prices surge for essentials that people can't easily cut back on (inelastic demand), households face a squeeze on their real purchasing power. A larger share of income goes to these necessities and consumers reduce overall spending to maintain the basics.

Look beyond first order effects.

1/2

Inflationary price spikes in goods or necessities often lead to weaker aggregate demand. Especially when the spikes stem from supply-side shocks.

“Regime change for USD is upon us.”

Like I said 9 days ago, this post was garbage.

It’s long overdue.

This used to be my generation’s (Gen X) attitude about war.

I’m still here. 👇🏼

👇🏼
bsky.app/profile/maui...

Dutta was always right.

Oops! 👇🏼

Dutta was always right.

Oops! 👇🏼

Agreed. But it doesn’t change what I said about the consumer. You can’t have inflation if the average person is unable to spend more.

If your definition of inflation is that the price of one commodity (albeit essential) goes up, then yeah.

From a broader perspective, this is very deflationary. Consumers are already hurting, so they will cut back wherever they can.

If your definition of inflation is that the price of one commodity (albeit essential) goes up, then yeah.

From a broader perspective, this is very deflationary. Consumers are already hurting, so they will cut back wherever they can.

Respectfully, rents are not “also much higher”. 👇🏼

3/3

AI’s advancement is just accelerating the pain and turning it into a more targeted crisis.

2/3

A shit ton of bad loans were made when rates were low, assuming perpetual SaaS growth and sticky revenues (which predates AI’s impact). Defaults and restructurings were baked in once growth slowed.

1/3

Investors seem to be conflating a traditional credit event (NBFI - BDC - Private Credit) with concerns about the viability of software companies in an AI world.

Some analyze margin debt in the context that includes free cash accounts and credit balances in margin accounts. They calculate the credit balance as the sum of free credit cash accounts and credit balances in margin accounts minus margin debt.

A record low of -$878.4 billion. 👇🏼

Margin debt continued to climb in January, reaching its eighth straight record high at $1.28 trillion. 👇🏼

This represents a 4.4% rise from December and marks the ninth straight monthly increase.

Anyone suggesting the market is dumping because Citrini posted a hypothetical “scenario” yesterday is a complete moron.

Anyone suggesting the market is dumping because Citrini posted a hypothetical “scenario” yesterday is a complete moron.

It looks like all the effort Private Equity/Credit has made in the last year or so to get more retail investors (bagholders) just wasn’t enough. 👇🏼

Look at what’s happening in Mexico today.

The cost of that beach vacation to Hawaii is looking a whole lot more reasonable today. 🌴

The simple reason why household spending and therefore GDP have remained strong despite the weakness in the labor market is that households have increasingly dissaved. Continued growth at these rates require either better labor markets or and even faster pace of dissaving.

Meanwhile, both hospital ships (USNS Mercy and Comfort) are in the shipyard in Mobile, Alabama. 😂