Ben Cahill

The Surprising Climate Story Behind Booming U.S. LNG Exports

New op-ed in Barron's on US LNG with @arvindpawan1.bsky.social. We cover some surprising findings in the DOE LNG study. Cutting emissions from new and existing projects, and developing a market for lower-emissions gas, can help make a credible climate case for US LNG. www.barrons.com/articles/lng...

Our conclusion: mending rather than ending federal methane regulations may leave the industry in a better position to meet external demands and market conditions. While you're here, please check out our new website for the Center for Energy and Environmental Systems Analysis! www.ceesa.utexas.edu

📢New paper: Will Trump Mend or End Federal Methane Regulations? This white paper from UT Austin's CEESA includes detailed scenarios & pathways. We outline the context as well, including investor pressure, corporate commitments, EU regulations, and buyer demands. www.ceesa.utexas.edu/white-papers

Trump Pauses Permitting for All Renewables on Federal Lands A newly released memo from the Department of the Interior freezes the pipeline for 60 days.

trump has now paused all permitting for renewables projects on federal lands for sixty days

cc @heatmap.news

heatmap.news/sparks/renew...

Funny, maybe a little overstated, but I tend to agree. The discipline of writing (and ruthless editing and revision) is the best way to truly understand an issue and organize your thoughts. After that, PowerPoints and podcasts and talks are easy.

The Co-Evolution of the Canada-U.S. Oil Industry and Possible Implications of Donald Trump’s Re-election The United States and Canada are the two fastest growing sources of non-OPEC oil production today and, for more than a decade, have made up the bulk of non-OPEC supply growth. While supply from the re...

Excellent article from @roryjohnston.bsky.social and Joe Calnan on the world's most important bilateral energy relationship. Tariffs may not harm US consumers *if* producers of Canadian heavy bear all the burden and WCS differentials blow out. But that's a big gamble. www.cgai.ca/the_co_evolu...

Why Biden’s Farewell Sanctions on Russian Oil Are a Big Deal The US on Friday announced the most sweeping and aggressive sanctions yet on Russia’s oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House to be replaced by Donald Trump as president.

Big expansion of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports, targeting producers, tanker owners, traders, OFS companies, and insurers. Will greatly increase the risk of doing business w/these entities. Bullish signal; Brent crude near $80/b today. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Week 1 2025 @bruegel.bsky.social European gas imports
-RU imports drop as Ukrainian transit ends (Turkstream flows at record seasonal levels)
-weekly LNG imports slightly increased
-LNG regasification utilisation: HR 93%, PL 88%
-EU's gas storage is 69% full, UA's 15%
www.bruegel.org/dataset/euro...

Experts React: DOE LNG Study Highlights and Implications The Department of Energy released its long-awaited study on U.S. liquified natural gas exports, offering a comprehensive update on economic and environmental analysis. Experts discuss key highlights a...

ICYMI: short essays from 9 CSIS colleagues & affiliates on different elements of the DOE US #LNG study. I wrote about long-term global LNG demand, arguing that commercial risks are unavoidable, but it's best to let the market sort out which facilities are built. www.csis.org/analysis/exp...

Transition Live Updates: To Avert Shutdown, Republicans Consider Rejecting Trump’s Priority

Keep this in mind when thinking about all of the energy and climate priorities (along with every other wish list) that people aim to push into a reconciliation bill next year. www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12...

It's fair to say 2022-2023 was unique. European gas buyers were forced to outbid everyone; unlikely to happen again unless there's an emergency situation. Which leaves standard offtake deals with US LNG projects. Already European buyers have some in place for "paused" projects including CP2.

Donald Trump tells EU to buy US oil and gas or face tariffs US president-elect warns bloc that member states will face tariffs unless they make big purchases

How can the EU buy more US LNG? In the short term, EU companies could outbid other buyers for destination-flexible volumes (this happened in 2022-23 but only due to acute market pressure). Otherwise flows depend on lifting the "pause" which is already part of Trump's plan. www.ft.com/content/9e48...

Key figure in the US DoE #LNG study: Coal-to-gas transition is a small part of how US LNG will be used globally, and much of it simply adds new gas generation. Impact on global emissions with & without unconstrained US LNG is ~0 (but slightly positive).
www.energy.gov/sites/defaul...

Of course. The EPA rule was expressly designed to address the gap between GHGRP inventory data based on engineering-based estimates, vs measured data from satellites & other sources. That's the whole point. Here's a great summary of requirements & significance. eelp.law.harvard.edu/epas-final-m...

The EPA estimates the OOOO b/c rules will reduce methane emissions by 58 million tons between 2024 and 2038. www.epa.gov/system/files...

No, you wrote that the Biden admin asked the EU to loosen its regulations, which is not correct. The EU will not issue this "equivalency" exemption for the US unless they're convinced US rules are at least as strong. And on CH4 reductions, the EPA 0000 b/c rules are critical, not just the WEC. 1/2

by project promoters, and also compel companies to show how they have considered this study's findings. This is the crux of the issue: how DOE and FERC will have to change their permitting process within the (fairly narrow) confines of the Natural Gas Act. Lots to unpack when the study is published.

2. Increased LNG exports displace more renewables than coal abroad. It will be important to look at regional breakdown/assumptions. 3. China as largest long term LNG demand source. Not South Asia or SE Asia? 4. Suggestion: future DOE export authorizations consider GHG reductions... (Cont'd)

‘Unfettered’ Gas Exports Would Harm U.S. Economy, Energy Secretary Warns Jennifer Granholm said a new analysis showed that the continued pace of exports was “neither sustainable nor advisable.”

Imminent DOE LNG study: some surprising early findings in Granholm letter. 1. US #LNG exports could➡️30% rise in dom. gas prices. So far, gas supply has enabled ~11.4 Bcf/d LNG exports and ~6.1 Bcf/d pipeline exports to Mexico, + big HH price drop since 2016. (Cont'd) www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/c...

DOE and EPA Letter to European Commission Asking to Initiate Discussion on Regulatory Equivalence for Natural Gas DOE and the EPA co-signed a letter addressed to European Commission Director-General for Energy Juul Jorgensen, requesting determination of “equivalency” for US exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...

You can read the letter here. This shows how important it is to maintain rather than roll back or weaken US methane regulations. The EU and other LNG buyers will continue to demand better data on emissions intensity. Buyer demands matter. www.energy.gov/fecm/article...

No, the Biden administration did not ask the EU to loosen these regulations. The DOE and EPA asked the EU to begin considering "regulatory equivalence" for US exports. That will only happen if the EU judges that EPA regulations and IRA Waste Emissions Charge are equivalent to EU MRV rules. 1/2

Multiscale Measurements of Greenhouse Gas Emissions at U.S. Natural Gas Liquefaction Terminals Addressing methane emissions across the liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chain is key to reducing climate impacts of LNG. Actions to address methane emissions have emphasized the importance of the u...

🔴New Paper!

Just in time for the big DoE #LNG study!

We present results from the first multi-scale measurements of #CarbonDioxide and #methane emissions at Sabine Pass & Corpus Christi LNG terminals over 16 months!

This has never been done before in the US at this scale! 💡🔌

#EnergySky

Exclusive: Trump transition team plans sweeping rollback of Biden EV, emissions policies Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s transition team is recommending sweeping changes to cut off support for electric vehicles and charging stations and to strengthen measures blocking cars, compone...

Reuters: draft Trump transition plans to cut EV tax incentives, weaken emissions standards, impose tariffs on "EV supply chain" components, but support critical minerals processing. Does this help the US auto sector or insulate it from competition & pressure to innovate? www.aol.com/news/exclusi...

US tariff threats + imminent election season in Canada triggering some important moves.

Economists polled by @financialtimes.com & Chicago's Booth School of Business trimmed their estimates of how much the Fed will lower interest rates next year on fears that Trump's proposed policies, if enacted, will stoke inflation

www.ft.com/content/50ec...

Trump 2.0: Oil Market Implications for the Gulf States As Trump seeks to maximize U.S. oil and gas output and choke off Iran’s oil exports, he will have no qualms about leaning into oil market issues.

New one from me on Trump's return and the implications for Gulf oil producers. A big push on Iran sanctions could create opportunities for the Saudis and others. But I'm not so sure they'll jump to backfill Iranian supply. #OPEC agsiw.org/trump-2-0-oi...

Cool chart. Where's the love for EIA forecasts? IEA bearishness and revisions and OPEC super-bullish outlook and downgrades get all the attention. Meanwhile, EIA keeps chugging and makes sensible changes.

This is ridiculous. It's also a bipartisan tradition in American politics to reward your donors by naming them ambassadors. Ambassadors should be career diplomats, not rich friends of the president!

U.S. LNG Export Boom: Defining National Interests Battle lines have been drawn over U.S. LNG. Policymakers are grappling with the role of natural gas in the energy transition, the benefits and drawbacks of growing LNG exports, and the value of U.S. f...

Postscript: if you want a summary of the economic, geopolitical, market, and climate implications of US LNG, here's a summary from me way back in January, before the LNG "pause" was announced. www.csis.org/analysis/us-...

The Trump administration and Republicans in Congress clearly want to end the pause and start permitting projects as fast as possible. But conclusions of this study could complicate those plans, as least for day 1/week 1 actions. (End)