Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets

This Week's Column| A look at how other oil-producing states moderate the impact of the boom-bust cycle of oil revenues on their state budgets, and how the #akleg could apply those lessons to achieve the same result here.
buff.ly/wpU9bHz

... taking more from 80% of #AKfams than the first approach.

As a measure of regressivity, at current deficit levels, the second approach (POMV 50/50) takes 3x more from the Low20% than the Top1%; the third approach (POMV 25/75) takes 22x more, and the fourth approach takes 36x more.

6/end

* Abandoning a rules-based PFD and using the "leftover" PFD approach (which reduces the PFD over the period to 22% of the POMV draw).

As the charts demonstrate, the first approach spreads the burden proportionately among all #AKfams. The second, third & fourth are increasingly regressive ...

5/6

* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 50/50, w/ the remaining deficit filled through a flat tax,

* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 25/75, w/ the additional deficit (above POMV 25/75) filled through a flat tax,

4/6

... (29% of the UGF budget, ~4.1% of Alaska AGI, ~2.6% of Alaska Private Sector GDP).

𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙙, we then look at four ways of closing the deficit.

* Retaining the current law PFD and using a flat tax to close the deficit instead,

3/6

𝙁𝙞𝙧𝙨𝙩, we update the 10-year outlook for the most recent $$oil futures prices and other updated information (now using the #AKGov's enacted budget for spending levels). Currently, the state is running an average annual 𝙙𝙚𝙛𝙞𝙘𝙞𝙩 over the next 10-year period of $1.75 billion ...

2/6

Brad Keithley’s chart of the week: The new "Goldilocks" charts Some readers will know that in addition to these weekly columns, we also regularly produce a series of daily charts focused on various aspects of Alaska oil, gas, and fiscal issues. We call one set…

The Friday P.M. "Goldilocks" Charts| We publish five charts Fri afternoons showing the impact of current futures $$oil on Alaska's fiscal outlook and three alternatives for resolving it. (Background: bit.ly/3UhbLCZ) #akleg

1/6

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 12.20% v PFC 8.04%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.08% v PFC 8.94%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.91% v PFC 12.43%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $7 (+$244mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $11 (+$357mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $4 (avg annual +$140mil)
#akleg

Second, we chart revenues derived from that same market strip against those projected in the same 10-year rev f'cast. Projected FY26 ⬆️ $6.54/b (+$229mil UGF), FY26-35 avg $70 ($2.33B avg UGF, ⬆️ $120 mil v FALL25 F'cast rev).

2/end

The Friday A.M. Charts| We publish 2 charts Friday mornings. #akleg

First, we chart YTD $$oil + the outlook from the current futures mkt v. DOR's most recent 10-year rev f'cast. Futures: near (⬆️ $8), mid (⬆️ $3) & long-term (⬇️ $1) v. FALL25 F'cast (rev).

1/2

The Friday column: Why “Protect the Permanent Fund” is really “Protect the Spend” Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line.

This Week's Column| Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line. buff.ly/NRUhb9K

The Weekly Top 3 (3.2.2026) Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill.

The second chart looks at the Fund balances & POMV draws of the PFC v. S&P 500 ETF, calculated from a common FY20 starting point. As the chart shows, thru current month-end FY26, the S&P 500 ETF proxy has a SIGNIFICANTLY higher balance and is producing SIGNIFICANTLY greater POMV draws.

4/end

As the chart shows, for FYTD26, the PFC's return trails the S&P 500 ETF as well as its own passive & performance benchmarks. The PFC trails the S&P 500 on a 5-, 3- & 1-yr avg, as well as 9 of the previous 10 yrs. The PFC also trails its own passive benchmark on a rolling 1- & 3-yr avg.

3/4

The first chart looks at the returns over the relevant periods for the PFC v. the S&P 500 ETF, the PFC's Total Return Objective (CPI +5%) and other PFC benchmarks.

2/4

Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Why the Permanent Fund Corporation’s investment approach may become a major 2026 campaign issue In our last two columns, we have explained that the… Read More

Monthly PFC Performance Charts| Consistent with our recent columns on PFC performance, we are revising our monthly charts that look at the performance of the Permanent Fund against various benchmarks (background: bit.ly/43H7gbM). #akleg

1/3

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 12.76% v PFC 7.92%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.30% v PFC 9.58%
* 1-yr: S&P 18.89% v PFC 12.47%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$209mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $9 (+$287mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $3 (avg annual +$105mil)
#akleg

Looking at the same data, the second calculates the avg production required over the remainder of the FY to meet F'cast. With 33% of FY26 remaining, the avg level needed over the rest to meet the FY26 F'cast is 469kbd, 2% ⬆️ current month levels.

2/end

The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg

Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now FALL25). W/67% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -4kbd (-1%) v. F'cast.

1/2

The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:

YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 82% & 90%;
> Domestic share: 83% & 97%.
#akleg

The Friday column: Why “Protect the Permanent Fund” is really “Protect the Spend” Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line.

This Week's Column| Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line.

Alaska has done a good job of smoothing and stabilizing revenues drawn from the Permanent Fund. It does a HORRIBLE job of doing the same with oil revenues, which leads to our continued fiscal mess. The #akleg should focus on fixing that.

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 12.28% v PFC 7.92%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.99% v PFC 9.58%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.53% v PFC 12.47%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$209mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $9 (+$287mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (3.2.2026) Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill.

The Weekly Top 3 (3.2.2026) Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill.

This Week's Column| Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line. buff.ly/NRUhb9K

Rolling Avg Prices & Differentials | To track relationships monthly, we look at the average prices for and the differentials between ANS, Brent & WTI on a rolling 12-, 6-, 3-, 1-month, and FYTD basis. We then incorporate those into our daily pricing outlooks. #akleg #akoil