Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets

The Friday column: Why “Protect the Permanent Fund” is really “Protect the Spend” Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line.

This Week's Column| Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line. buff.ly/NRUhb9K

The Weekly Top 3 (3.2.2026) Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill.

The second chart looks at the Fund balances & POMV draws of the PFC v. S&P 500 ETF, calculated from a common FY20 starting point. As the chart shows, thru current month-end FY26, the S&P 500 ETF proxy has a SIGNIFICANTLY higher balance and is producing SIGNIFICANTLY greater POMV draws.

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As the chart shows, for FYTD26, the PFC's return trails the S&P 500 ETF as well as its own passive & performance benchmarks. The PFC trails the S&P 500 on a 5-, 3- & 1-yr avg, as well as 9 of the previous 10 yrs. The PFC also trails its own passive benchmark on a rolling 1- & 3-yr avg.

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The first chart looks at the returns over the relevant periods for the PFC v. the S&P 500 ETF, the PFC's Total Return Objective (CPI +5%) and other PFC benchmarks.

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Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Why the Permanent Fund Corporation’s investment approach may become a major 2026 campaign issue In our last two columns, we have explained that the… Read More

Monthly PFC Performance Charts| Consistent with our recent columns on PFC performance, we are revising our monthly charts that look at the performance of the Permanent Fund against various benchmarks (background: bit.ly/43H7gbM). #akleg

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The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 12.76% v PFC 7.92%
* 3-yr: S&P 19.30% v PFC 9.58%
* 1-yr: S&P 18.89% v PFC 12.47%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$209mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $9 (+$287mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $3 (avg annual +$105mil)
#akleg

Looking at the same data, the second calculates the avg production required over the remainder of the FY to meet F'cast. With 33% of FY26 remaining, the avg level needed over the rest to meet the FY26 F'cast is 469kbd, 2% ⬆️ current month levels.

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The Thursday Charts| We publish two charts Thursdays. #akleg

Using the prior yr's production profile as a baseline, the first charts YTD production levels compared w/the most recent F'cast (now FALL25). W/67% of FY26 done, YTD avg (red) running -4kbd (-1%) v. F'cast.

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The Wednesday Chart| To help better understand the primary market for ANS, we look at the supply to USWC refiners each Wed:

YTD 2025 avg USWC (approx % of pre (2019)- and post (2022)-COVID levels):
> Crude demand: 82% & 90%;
> Domestic share: 83% & 97%.
#akleg

The Friday column: Why “Protect the Permanent Fund” is really “Protect the Spend” Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line.

This Week's Column| Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line.

Alaska has done a good job of smoothing and stabilizing revenues drawn from the Permanent Fund. It does a HORRIBLE job of doing the same with oil revenues, which leads to our continued fiscal mess. The #akleg should focus on fixing that.

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 12.28% v PFC 7.92%
* 3-yr: S&P 18.99% v PFC 9.58%
* 1-yr: S&P 16.53% v PFC 12.47%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $6 (+$209mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $9 (+$287mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg

The Weekly Top 3 (3.2.2026) Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill.

The Weekly Top 3 (3.2.2026) Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill

This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why the FY27 budget should use the rolling 10-year average oil price, what Callan's numbers really say about the PFC & why a distributional analysis should be required for any #akleg revenue bill.

This Week's Column| Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line. buff.ly/NRUhb9K

Rolling Avg Prices & Differentials | To track relationships monthly, we look at the average prices for and the differentials between ANS, Brent & WTI on a rolling 12-, 6-, 3-, 1-month, and FYTD basis. We then incorporate those into our daily pricing outlooks. #akleg #akoil

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 12.20% v PFC 7.92%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.01% v PFC 9.58%
* 1-yr: S&P 15.57% v PFC 12.47%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $4 (+$139mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $10 (+$244mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg

This Wk's Top 3| What oil prices should the #akleg use for the #AKbudget, some more important PFC numbers & a detailed distributional analysis (#WhoPays) must be a mandatory part of any #akleg tax discussion. www.facebook.com/share/1AeKab...

Exports as a %ANS| Due to COVID, a material share of ANS was exported to Asian (primarily Chinese) mkts from 2Q 2020 to 1Q 2022. However, from shortly after the start of the Ukraine War (Apr22), most has gone to the USWC, w/ only sporadic dels (CY25 YTD: 2%) to Asia. #akleg

USWC Supply Chart| Monthly as data becomes available from EIA we take a look at supply sources into PADD V (USWC) refineries. #akleg

YTD (thru Dec), Alaska running ⬆️ 2% v. 2019 USWC mkt share (20.9% v 18.9%), but due to lower demand, vols ⬇️ 34kbd (414kbd). US sources 41% of total USWC supplies.

The Friday column: Why “Protect the Permanent Fund” is really “Protect the Spend” Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line.

This Week's Column| Over the past decade and a half, the #akleg has drained almost every available source of cash it can get its hands on to maintain spending. Here's how the Permanent Fund itself may be next in line. buff.ly/NRUhb9K

PFD cuts are about one thing only: protecting the Top20%, #NonRez & #OilCos from the costs of #akleg spending.

Rather than spreading the impact broadly, PFD cuts instead focus the burden almost entirely on middle- & lower-income #AKfams. buff.ly/Y8K07jZ

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 12.54% v PFC 7.92%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.11% v PFC 9.58%
* 1-yr: S&P 15.52% v PFC 12.47%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. FALL25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $5 (+$174mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬆️ $12 (+$392mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $2 (avg annual +$70mil)
#akleg

Even though it's not projected to be available until 2031, we have also started including Wood Mackenzie's recent projection of the delivered cost of #AKLNG Phase I. At 2031 start-up date, projected AKLNG Phase I price is 65% ⬆️ Asia.

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The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 8% ⬇️ Asia, 175% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 21% ⬆️ Asia, 189% ⬆️ L48. #akleg

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