Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets

This Wk's Top 3| What is missing from the #AKgov's campaigns, the irritating thing about Top20%'rs who claim they are ready for taxes & what the Permanent Fund's 1Q results tell us. #akleg T'row, 6:05a on the Michael Dukes Show at buff.ly/B95f46B

... a common FY20 starting point. As the chart shows, thru current month-end FY26, the S&P 500 ETF proxy has a SIGNIFICANTLY higher balance and is producing SIGNIFICANTLY greater POMV draws.

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... the S&P 500 on a 5-, 3- and 1-yr avg, as well as 9 of the previous 10 years. Tellingly, the PFC also trails its own passive benchmark on a rolling 1- & 3-yr avg.

The second chart looks at the comparative Fund balances and POMV draws of the PFC v. S&P 500 ETF, calculated from ...

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The first chart looks at the returns over the relevant periods for the PFC v. the S&P 500 ETF, the PFC's Total Return Objective (CPI +5%) and other PFC benchmarks.

As the chart shows, for FY26, the PFC's return trails the S&P 500 ETF as well as its own passive benchmark. The PFC trails ...

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Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Why the Permanent Fund Corporation’s investment approach may become a major 2026 campaign issue In our last two columns, we have explained that the… Read More

Monthly PFC Performance Charts| Consistent with our recent columns on PFC performance, we are revising our monthly charts that look at the performance of the Permanent Fund against various benchmarks (background: bit.ly/43H7gbM). #akleg

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Brad Keithley’s Chart of the Week: Alaska is the California and New York, combined, of regressive tax rates Earlier this week, while working through some data on states that use a flat-rate income tax to raise...… Read More

This Week's Alaska Landmine Column| Some think the marginal State income tax rates of California & New York are over the top. Turns out, they are peanuts compared to Alaska's highest—and most regressive—in-the-nation marginal rates. #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.90% v PFC 8.87%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.91% v PFC 7.95%
* 1-yr: S&P 12.65% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$115mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg

Even though it's not projected to be available until 2031, we have also started including Wood Mackenzie's recent projection of the delivered cost of #AKLNG Phase I. At 2031 start-up date, projected AKLNG Phase I price is 57% ⬆️ Asia.

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The Monday Chart| To put Alaska's in-state gas prices in global context, once wkly we compare Enstar's current Gas Cost Adjustment v. global markers. 2025-26 Enstar price is 10% ⬇️ Asia, 167% ⬆️ L48. 5yr forward avg, Enstar 18% ⬆️ Asia, 176% ⬆️ L48. #akleg

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Chart of the Week Archives

😚 While working on this coming week's column, we just realized we recently passed the 4-year and 200-column mark of writing the Chart of the Week for The Alaska Landmine. That's a lot of ... spreadsheets. #akleg buff.ly/FDXAduk

ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why Alaska is the California of regressive tax rates, the Task Force on Education Funding needs to address how to actually FUND any spending increases & the irony of Alaska's SNAP funding "crisis." #akleg buff.ly/h2Kcp59

The Friday column: Alaska is the California and New York, combined, of regressive tax rates Some think the marginal State income tax rates of California & New York are over the top. Turns out, Alaska's marginal revenue rates are even higher and pointed at the other end of the income spectrum

This Week's Friday Column| Some think the marginal State income tax rates of California & New York are over the top. Turns out, Alaska's marginal revenue rates are even higher and pointed at the other end of the income spectrum. #akleg buff.ly/bFoBCJ6

In already-crowded race for Alaska governor, candidates look to fundraising as a barometer Some Republican candidates said that donations were harder to come by because of the size of the field.

Even though there are a lot, NONE of the candidates is focusing on the broad economic challenges facing #AKfams, notably the 80% in the middle & lower-income brackets. Instead, their focus is mostly on various special interest issues. #akleg #akgov

𝙄𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨: We track the current Fed funds rate + 10-, 20- & 30-year US Treas Bond yields. buff.ly/G7yMwPW
Effective Fed funds rate: 3.87%
US Treas Bond yields --
**10-Yr: 4.11%**
20-Yr: 4.67%
30-Yr: 4.69%

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> Second, the current rate + forward expectations as measured in the Treas market. buff.ly/FQFNW1n
Current: 3.02% (Aug)
10yr Avg: 2.28%
Next 5yrs: 2.36%
5 yrs Beyond That: 2.20%

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> First, accumulated inflation (as measured by the Alaska PCE & Alaska CPI) over the last 10 years. buff.ly/Ufkow6y
PCE: up 50.0% (5.0%/yr)
CPI: up 24.6% (2.5%/yr)

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The Sunday Financial Charts| To help better understand the overall financial environment, weekly we track current + projected inflation & interest rates. #akleg

𝙄𝙣𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: We follow two measures of inflation:

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The Sunday Chart| To help assess the ANS market, wkly we review the status of the ANS tanker fleet. Notes: 1 (HIL) moored at KR for maint; no MPC in service. #akleg
* Deliveries month to date: 5.5
* Not in ANS service: 1 (HIL maint.)
* Asia: 0
* USWC: 9 (5 CP, 2 HIL, 2 XOM) in runs

The Weekly Top 3 (11.3.2025) Why Alaska is the California of regressive tax rates, the Task Force on Education Funding needs to address how to actually FUND any spending increases & the irony of Alaska's SNAP funding "crisis"

ICYMI. This Wk's Top 3 P'cast| Why Alaska is the California of regressive tax rates, the Task Force on Education Funding needs to address how to actually FUND any spending increases & the irony of Alaska's SNAP funding "crisis." #akleg

The Rolling 4-Wk Avgs| To provide perspective on $$ANS trends as well as the relationship b/w ANS & other reference prices, wkly we chart the 4-wk avg & differentials. Current ANS 4-wk avg $65, ahead of both Brent ($1.72) and Brent/WTI avg ($3.70). #akleg

Letter: Time for more taxes? The free ride is over, Alaska.

🤦 The usual Top 20% pitch: I'm "ready" for taxes ... but only after we first tax middle and lower-income #AKfams to the max (by eliminating the PFD) before looking for any significant contributions from the Top20%, #NonRez & the #OilCos. #akleg

The Friday column: Alaska is the California and New York, combined, of regressive tax rates Some think the marginal State income tax rates of California & New York are over the top. Turns out, Alaska's marginal revenue rates are even higher and pointed at the other end of the income spectrum

This Week's Friday Column| Some think the marginal State income tax rates of California & New York are over the top. Turns out, Alaska's marginal revenue rates are even higher and pointed at the other end of the income spectrum. #akleg

The 8:35a Chart| Given the importance of Permanent Fund returns to #AKrev levels, we have developed a second morning chart focusing on S&P 500 5-, 3- & 1-yr returns v the PFC's. #akleg

* 5-yr: S&P 13.90% v PFC 8.87%
* 3-yr: S&P 20.91% v PFC 7.95%
* 1-yr: S&P 12.65% v PFC 8.64%

The 8:30a Chart| To provide context to current $$oil, we publish daily (ex-Su) a running avg of FY26-32 $$ANS, Brent & WTI actual+futures. Projected ANS v. SPRING25 rev F'cast:

> FY26 ⬆️ $2 (+$112mil UGF)
> FY27 ⬇️ $2 (-$72mil)
> FY28-32 ⬆️ $1 (avg annual +$36mil)
#akleg

Building on that, we publish a second chart tracking the impact of the revs generated at current projected oil price levels against the FY26 waterfall. At projected price, production & spending levels, projected revs are $10mil ⬆️ breakeven.

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The Saturday Charts| Each Saturday, we compare current FY gross oil revs v. DOR's most recent (NOW SPRING25) F'cast. W/ 33% of FY26 booked, projected annual gross revs (blue) running ⬆️ 1% v Spring25 F'cast rev. Projected FY26 WAVG currently $67. #akleg

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... taking more from 80% of #AKfams than the first approach.

As a measure of regressivity, at current deficit levels, the second approach (POMV 50/50) takes 2x more from the Low20% than the Top1%; the third approach (POMV 25/75) takes 11x more, and the fourth approach takes 36x more.

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* Abandoning a rules-based PFD and using the "leftover" PFD approach (which reduces the PFD over the period to 14% of the POMV draw).

As the charts demonstrate, the first approach spreads the burden proportionately among all #AKfams. The second, third & fourth are increasingly regressive ...

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* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 50/50, w/ the remaining deficit filled through a flat tax,

* Restructuring the PFD as POMV 25/75, w/ the additional deficit (above POMV 25/75) filled through a flat tax,

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