Jonas Haslbeck

We found that model selection was successful for state separations similar to the ones we found in empirical data and estimation error was satisfactory for realistic numbers of observations and subjects.

Going beyond existing simulations, we independently varied the number of true states, the state separation, the number of variables, the number of time points, and the number of subjects.

In the second paper (osf.io/preprints/ps...) we conduct an extensive simulation study to evaluate whether existing software works as intended and how well multilevel HMMs can be estimated in typical time series designs in psychology.

In the first paper with Emmeke Aarts (osf.io/preprints/ps...) we provide a gentle introduction to (multilevel) HMMs and walk the reader through a fully reproducible tutorial on model specification, estimation, selection, and interpretation by analyzing a typical EMA emotion time series dataset.

While Emmeke Aart's R-package mHMMbayes already allows estimating multilevel HMMs, there has been no easily accessible tutorial on how to use these models and no evaluation of how well these models can be estimated in situations typical for psychology research.

Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.

Experts with theoretical traditions, researchers experienced in approaches to theory construction, educators and policymakers work on the first steps toward creating a mature subfield of theoretical psychology. bit.ly/4nLOWoE @annemscheel.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @jmbh.bsky.social

Are climate activists portrayed as polarising & violent in the news media? Are risks & solutions to climate change mentioned?

We used ChatGPT to answer these questions based on > 4,200 articles from seven major German newspapers: link.springer.com/article/10.1... w @jmbh.bsky.social & Simon Wimmer

Thanks, but I'm afraid also this link doesn't work for me (requires a KU Leuven login)

End unfolding genocide or watch it end life in Gaza: UN experts say States face defining choice GENEVA – Escalating atrocities in Gaza present an urgent moral crossroads and States must act now to end the violence or bear witness to the annihilation of the Palestinian population in Gaza – an out...

“States must act now to end the violence or bear witness to the annihilation of the Palestinian population in Gaza – an outcome with irreversible consequences for our shared humanity”

What a show on the last day of ACSCC 2025 where our brilliant participants presented the culmination of their week-long collaborations. Buckle up for today’s highlights👇

Time flies and we are already halfway through ACSCC!

Today was kicked-off by @doynefarmer.bsky.social, who gave us a deep dive into forecasting technological progress. Doyne also shared his vision of complexity economics for a better world, and showcased his impressive modelling work at Macrocosm.

The second day of ACSCC was again full of inspiring lectures and discussions!

Day two was kicked-off by the keynote of Tim Lenton, who gave an introduction to tipping points and an update on the latest research, followed by a discussion about effective leverage points using positive tipping points.

The second edition of ACSCC is officially underway!
We had a fantastic first day, welcoming over 40 participants from a wide range of disciplines — including economists, lawyers, social scientists, metallurgists, and more. Once again, we are blessed with wonderful sunny weather here in Amsterdam! ☀️

Line-up of our speakers: Tim Lenton, Doyne Farmer, Joyeeta Gupta, Liesbeth van Tongeren, Vitor Vasconcelos, Ben Franta, Heleen Ekker, Lydia Baan Hofman, Erika van der Linden, Pippi van Ommen, Agat Sharma, Laura Cull O Maoilearca

We are very excited about the line-up of speakers for ACSCC, which kicks off next week!

The following talks can also be followed online:

Tim Lenton: tinyurl.com/5d9ubts9
Joyeeta Gupta: tinyurl.com/kbk92rap
Doyne Farmer: tinyurl.com/vdrhjvwe
Vítor Vasconcelos: uva-live.zoom.us/j/89976716302

How can Multilevel Hidden Markov Models help uncover personalized dynamics? Find out in the post-conference session on May 29 with Emmeke Aarts (Utrecht University), Jonas Haslbeck (University of Amsterdam), and Pepijn Vink (Utrecht University)! @jmbh.bsky.social

1/3

Tutorial on exploring ecological momentary assessment data is online at AMPPS, with:
- Accessible ways to visualize data for better understanding
- Models to get some first insights
- Further reading boxes for more advanced topics
- Reproducible pipeline you can run over your own data

... and provide a fully reproducible step-by-step tutorial on model estimation, selection, diagnostics and interpretation.

... we valuate how well these models can be estimated in typical empirical settings using a simulation study ...

...we provide an introduction to LCVAR models, introduce the new R package ClusterVAR (cran.r-project.org/.../pack.../...)

New preprint by Anja Ernst and me on Modeling Qualitative Between-Person Heterogeneity in Time-Series using Latent Class Vector Autoregressive Models (osf.io/preprints/ps...)

Was also confused and just uploaded everything as a PDF again (:

🚨 New preprint! 🚨

We analysed over one million actions reported in the AWorld app, the UN's official platform for individual action on climate change: osf.io/preprints/ps...

This was an exciting collaboration with @kristiansn89.bsky.social, Jan Bauer, Laura Basconi, & @cameronbrick.bsky.social 🧵👇

Are psychometric networks sufficiently supported by data such that one can be confident when interpreting its results? We analysed 294 psychometric networks from 126 papers with the Bayesian approach to address this question @jmbh.bsky.social Sara Ruth van Holst @maartenmarsman.bsky.social 🧵

🔍 Speaker Spotlight: Tim Lenton

We are honored to have leading Earth system scientist Tim Lenton, who introduced 'climate tipping points' to the literature. Recently, his focus expanded to social tipping points as means to a sustainable future.

⏳ Last chance to apply at acscc.nl

Speaker Spotlight: Vítor V. Vasconcelos

What is complexity? Vítor will kick off ACSCC with a primer on complex systems. He’s an Assistant Professor at UvA, co-leads POLDER, and works on collective behavior and unintended consequences in social systems.

⏳ Final days to apply at acscc.nl

Information on the Amsterdam Complexity School on Climate Change, including dates (April 28 - May 2) and confirmed speakers so far (Tim Lenton, Joyeeta Gupta, Doyne Farmer, Liesbeth van Tongeren, Vitor Vasconcelos, Pippi van Ommen)

⏳ 10 days left to apply! ⏳

There are only 10 days left to apply for @acscc.bsky.social hosted at @iasamsterdam.bsky.social!

Come visit a beautiful city, hear from world-renowned experts, and work with passionate people on challenges related to climate change: acscc.nl

Finally, we discuss how using our generative model can inspire new approaches to measurement, design and statistical analysis in ESM studies in the field of emotion research, and connect emotions to other outcomes such as mental health. 4/4

Drawing on existing (process) theories of emotion, we outline how our model can be extended to render it adaptive, include learning, and include inter-individual differences 3/4