Guntram Wolff

Europe has recently pivoted to regulatory simplification with the aim to boost competitiveness. This column argues that in banking the debate needs to go beyond competitiveness and be embedded within a broader strategic vision fit for the new geopolitical context. The broader vision should consider the dependence on the US dollar-centric financial system, the increasing complexity of global financial networks, and the emergence of new financial technologies such as stablecoins. At the same time, the strategy should bolster the euro’s use in trade, finance, and reserves in order to reduce Europe’s exposure to external financial shocks and geopolitical leverage. By enhancing trust in our financial institutions, this strategy would contribute to their competitiveness and that of the overall EU economy.

A broader discussion of European banking needs to be had in the new geopolitical context. $ dependence, complexity of global financial networks, & new tech such as stablecoins should be taken into account.
M Dewatripont, P Praet, A Sapir, @guntramwolff.bsky.social‬
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky

This is indeed a must-read piece by a group of leading experts on how China shock affects our economies.
One point stands out: We need to let Chinese companies into our markets to get the technology and competition into our markets. At the same time, we need to be watchful of security risks.

Rüstungsmilliarden allein genügen nicht Europas Politiker verfallen schon wieder der Illusion, komplexe Probleme allein mit Geld lösen zu können. bto#304 – Die Zahlen sind atemberaubend: Deutschland will bis zum Jahr 2029 seine Verteidigung...

Daniel Stelter hat mich eingeladen, über das Thema Rüstung zu sprechen. Hier der Podcast: "Rüstungsmilliarden allein genügen nicht".
cc @kiel.institute , @bruegel.bsky.social , and Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management
think-beyondtheobvious.com/ruestungsmil...

Socialists to support von der Leyen in no-confidence vote after she backs down on EU budget European Commission president expected to easily survive ― but she has made two major concessions.

The Socialists in the EP have leveraged a no-confidence vote put up by the far right to effectively gut a major part of the reform of the EU budget. Stunning development that further imperils the prospect for a major MFF reform. I had hopes that this time would be different. But I was naive.
Thread:

We are truly in an era where *anything* can happen!

Next thing you know, the French will be praising the gourmet values of Yorkshire Pudding.

Der übersehene zweite Grund für Erderwärmung Kaum jemand spricht darüber: Kraftwerke erzeugen Wärme – unabhängig von CO2 und Treibhauseffekt.

CO2 ist der Hauptgrund für die Erderwärmung. Allerdings: Langfristig erhitzen wir den Planeten durch jede Form von Energiezufuhr, auch wenn sie CO2-neutral ist. Nur PV und Wind sind langfristig wirklich nachhaltig.

Europe just years away from uncrewed fighter jets, says defence start-up Helsing AI company allowed its software to take control of a Gripen E fighter jet over the Baltic Sea in two test flights

Great to see the innovation proceeding fast - this will be critical for European security. The big question is whether our traditional armed services will be ready to adopt and scale with AI based systems...

www.ft.com/content/7100...

Quote: „Also, truth-seeking and using X posts as training data is fundamentally incompatible.“ 👍🏻😆

Critical Hurricane Monitoring Data Is Going Offline

Forecasters will imminently lose observations crucial for hurricane tracking and prediction, as data from three NOAA/DOD satellites will go unmonitored.

The satellites aren't being decommissioned. The agencies will simply stop providing the satellites' data.

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/c...

Seven years choosing a rifle: Germany faces battle to overcome defence bureaucracy Size of planned €650bn splurge on military creates huge challenges for Berlin’s cumbersome procurement system

"The more rapidly we need to get money out of the door, the more there is the risk that it just goes to the easiest, most expensive but also potentially outdated technology,” said Guntram Wolff, a senior fellow at the Brussels-based economic think-tank @bruegel.bsky.social

on.ft.com/46hnVUf

YouTube video by CNBC International Live Squawk Box Europe - 26-Jun-25

Interview on CNBC on NATO and EU summit @bruegel.bsky.social
youtu.be/n4ynKaz-9GE?...

Europa musi się zjednoczyć. Nikt nie poradzi sobie sam. Nawet Niemcy są za małe W Europie sprzęt wojskowy kupujemy w małych ilościach od krajowych dostawców, więc mogą oni dyktować naprawdę wysokie ceny. Brakuje nam ekonomii skali i konkure

@guntramwolff.bsky.social opowiada, jak nie przepłacać za zbrojenia. Kto będzie w Europie więcej na nie wydawał? Czy powstanie europejska armia? I czy Ukraina wejdzie do NATO oraz Unii? www.rp.pl/biznes/art42...

Europa hat sehr viel geopolitisches Gewicht verloren | Börsen-Zeitung Der Brüsseler Ökonom kritisiert die Zauderhaftigkeit europäischer Rüstungspolitik. Ohne glaubwürdige eigene Abschreckung sei Europa kein ernst zu nehmender Verhandlungspartner für Iran oder die USA.

Interview in der Börsenzeitung
www.boersen-zeitung.de/konjunktur-p...

In 2024 the Middle East was accounting for less than a quarter of global LNG supplies - almost 90% of which went to Asia.

At the same time, only about 10% of the EU's LNG imports came from the Middle East. And LNG contributed less than 40% to EU gas supplies.

Fit for war by 2030? European rearmament efforts vis-a-vis Russia | Kiel InstitutMenu This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation toda...

A big #NATO week ahead. The debate needs to move from fiscal numbers to actual capabilities Europe needs to have. Want to find out the state of rearmament in #Germany, #UK, #Poland or #France? Check out our @bruegel.bsky.social and @kiel.institute report: www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikati...

I guess the emphasis can be on "used to be"

Ökonomen warnen: Europas Verteidigung braucht mehr Tempo Die europäische Militärindustrie stößt an Grenzen. Eine vollständige Unabhängigkeit von den Vereinigten Staaten bleibt auf Jahre unrealistisch.

Die FAZ mit einer sehr schönen Zusammenfassung unserer Studie bei @bruegel.bsky.social und @kiel.institute
www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...

Trotz Milliardensummen: Europas Aufrüstung droht zu scheitern Europäische Staaten investieren wesentlich mehr in ihre Verteidigung als noch vor drei Jahren, doch diese Ausgaben werden nicht automatisch zu der gewünschten größeren Kriegstüchtigkeit im Jahr 2030 f...

Europas Verteidigungsausgaben steigen stark – doch mehr Geld allein bringt keine Kriegstüchtigkeit bis 2030, warnen @guntramwolff.bsky.social et el im neuen Kiel Report (gemeinsam mit @bruegel.bsky.social). Nur mit mehr Wettbewerb, gemeinsamer Beschaffung & moderner Technologie gelingt der Wandel 👇

Fit for war by 2030? European rearmament efforts vis-a-vis Russia | Kiel InstituteMenu This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation toda...

Fit for war ny 2030? Our new @bruegel.bsky.social and @kiel.institute Report is out
www.ifw-kiel.de/publications...

10 years after the signing of Paris, coal shows no sign of peaking. Bad statistic of the morning in today's FT

Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed In this study, employing a detailed analysis of ocean carbonate system observations, models and biological assessments, we demonstrate that by year 2020, the average global ocean conditions had alrea....

Das hier ist die vielleicht wichtigste und doch wohl wenigst beachtete Nachricht des Tages. Eine weitere planetare Grenze ist überschritten. Wie üblich ist das Paper eher vorsichtig formuliert. Deshalb hier deutlicher: man muss über komplexe Systeme nur eines wissen: Ohne sie ist alles aus. Für uns.

Social media creating two media universes: one in which you drive yourself into, at best, a lowkey depression being continually served videos of atrocities, one in which you are so under-informed that you vote for someone pledging to deport 20mn people and then go 'wait, he wants to deport people?'

EV manufacturing is ramping up in Europe and the US:
-Investments in EV manufacturing grow steadily on both sides of the Atlantic;
-Europe leads in EV production capacity;
See more on EV investment, manufacturing and sales trends:
www.bruegel.org/analysis/tra...
@bruegel.bsky.social @rhg.com

Musk is totally right on this one. It will aggravate the fiscal deficit, thereby the trade deficit and brings the US in real fiscal difficulties. This shows that US bond markets and the dollar are different than they used to be and investors lose trust. ht @paulkrugman.substack.com.web.brid.gy

It’s in Europe’s interest to put sanctions on Israel [FREE TO READ] Limiting trade, travel and freezing foreign reserves would show the EU is willing to act independently of the US

It's time for the EU to prepare sanctions on Israel. My column in today's @financialtimes.com. on.ft.com/4khdm7W

PS 2: centralising and funding all EU military procurement could give us 1.5% per year of EU debt. This would be a very powerful signal to bond markets: (1) increasing EU debt (2) doing so to actually cooperate in a major area of sovereignty. cc @pisaniferry.bsky.social

And a small PS: "EU leaders have not decided yet whether to roll over or repay the EU-bonds issued to fund the NGEU program" --> the official EU leader decision is NOT to roll NGEU debt over. So it takes an active new decision to roll over EU debt. Which should and I hope will be taken...

accountability, and frankly ideally also a clear decision to match additional tax power with competences on spending/execution (European army?). Re-starting a Eurobond debate without a serious debate on institutions is taking us back to the fruitless debates of the eurozone crisis period.

proposal is actually not only politically a no-go, but also practically difficult to put to work. If we seriously wanted EU debt at 25% of EU GDP, which I think is actually a good idea, we have to talk about deep institutional transformation. Direct European access to the tax base, parliamentary ...

To solve this moral hazard issue, Blanchard&Ubide propose to use national law to dedicate resources for the EU. Yet, national budgets are core area of sovereignty and indeed, even national constitutions are changed for new political priorities. (remember German debt brake ;-)). So overall,...