Guntram Wolff

Senator Kelly is correct.

Plus a Public Service Announcement:

KEY section of Department of Defense's Law of War Manual is 18.3.2.1.

The VERY rule on the "requirement" to refuse illegal orders gives as its paradigmatic example of what is "clearly illegal:
"orders to fire upon the shipwrecked."

Mark Kelly on the Trump/Hegseth boat strikes: "If orders are illegal, not only do they not have to follow them, they are legally required not to follow them."

Ukraine talks: peace progress or dead end? How should the EU manage negotiations with Ukraine, the US and Russia?

🎙️ Ukraine talks: peace progress or dead end?

@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses Ukraine peace talks with @veron.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, and how the EU can manage the high-stakes standoff between Kyiv, Moscow and Washington. #EconSky

Listen here:

Christopher Miller on X: "Full English text of Zelensky's address to the Ukrainian nation tonight in Kyiv, via the presidential office: Ukrainians! There comes a moment in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk things through. Honestly. Calmly. Without speculation, rumors, gossip, without" / X Full English text of Zelensky's address to the Ukrainian nation tonight in Kyiv, via the presidential office: Ukrainians! There comes a moment in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk things through. Honestly. Calmly. Without speculation, rumors, gossip, without

Now it is the sole responsibility of Europeans to help Ukraine maintain its dignity - and we should hold our "leaders" to account on that.

x.com/christopherj...

Christopher Miller on X: "Full English text of Zelensky's address to the Ukrainian nation tonight in Kyiv, via the presidential office: Ukrainians! There comes a moment in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk things through. Honestly. Calmly. Without speculation, rumors, gossip, without" / X Full English text of Zelensky's address to the Ukrainian nation tonight in Kyiv, via the presidential office: Ukrainians! There comes a moment in the life of every nation when everyone needs to talk things through. Honestly. Calmly. Without speculation, rumors, gossip, without

"Right now, Ukraine may find itself facing a very tough choice. -Either the loss of our dignity or the risk of losing a key partner. " Zelenskyy
---> Let's all be honest here: the key partner has been lost for some time.

Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008: an analysis of a new dataset The paper presents a new dataset of all US Foreign Military Sales since 2008 and analyses global trends in volumes and equipment types

🪖 Understanding US foreign military sales globally since 2008

✈️ What are the trends and values of United States Foreign Military Sales, and how have they changed over time?

🖊️ By @juanmejinoecon.bsky.social, @javier-ospital.bsky.social and @guntramwolff.bsky.social
🔗 buff.ly/VuzCafe
#EconSky

If your government thinks the Pope “doesn’t know what he’s talking about” when he defends migrants’ dignity, the world should see the warning sign. The US is no longer leading on human rights. It’s suppressing them.

Will higher defence spending boost the European economy? Deindustrialising regions hope for investment and jobs, but much will depend on how the extra money is spent

Guntram Wolff is sceptical that churning out more tanks or artillery will bring long-term economic gains. However, if European governments direct their money towards new technologies, this will “have broader economic benefits”. Time to modernise armed forces @bruegel.org

www.ft.com/content/ec99...

Armed by America: how Europe’s militaries depend on the US – a visual analysis The EU wants independence on defence but it is buying thousands of weapons from the US each year

my quotes in @guardian “Historically, there’s this notion that greater defence cooperation is questionable for sovereignty...But the counter argument is that we have a huge dependency on the US. ... sovereignty doesn’t sit in Europe – it’s in Washington.”
www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

Europamagazin vom 2. November 2025 - hier anschauen Klimaziele versus Wachstum? EU ringt um die Zukunft | Lösung für den Klimaschutz? CO2 speichern im norwegischen Meeresboden | Wachstum und weniger Schulden – Griechenlands Comeback | Das Vertuschen se...

www.ardmediathek.de/video/europa...

Im Europamagazin des ARD wurde ich zum europäischen Klimaschutz befragt. Danke für das Interview

Fossil fuel use continues to climb, despite the growth of renewables. Bad news in today's Financial Times newsletter

It was a pleasure discussing in Berlin why Europe needs to invest in its domestic military industrial technological base - and why Germany's trust in the US is naive. A great Franco-German panel with a Polish chair.

Aktuelles Interview in "Die Presse" in Österreich

@guntramwolff.bsky.social from @ulbruxelles.bsky.social points out how much of European defence equipment works with US software: "While on the one hand, we're increasing our capabilities, on the other hand we're also increasing our dependencies." #ResearchMeetsPolitics

Climate, data and complacency Why economists need to take the costs of climate change more seriously

🎙️ Climate, data and complacency 🌍

@rebeccawire.bsky.social discusses the cost of climate change with @heathergrabbe.bsky.social & @guntramwolff.bsky.social, highlighting the ways in which it will affect insurance, housing and GDP. #EconSky

👂 Listen to the podcast:

Thanks. This is a great point and we will look into it.

Very much looking forward to this debate. I will speak also about our most recent paper on Europe’s dependence on US foreign military sales and what to do about it www.bruegel.org/policy-brief...

Poland demands Germany stop Nord Stream attack prosecutions Also in this newsletter: How to end Europe’s dangerous reliance on US weapons

"European purchases of US arms hit a record high of $76bn 2024, according to a @bruegel.org paper authored by Juan Mejino-López & Guntram Wolff, who analysed 1,179 notifications under the US Foreign Military Sales programme since 2008."
@financialtimes.com Henry Foy
www.ft.com/content/4131...

I am delighted to share that Nobel laureates Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee will join our Department of Economics @econ.uzh.ch at the University of Zurich on July 1, 2026, as Lemann Foundation Professors of Economics.

🧵 1/7

Fascinating lecture today by @guntramwolff.bsky.social on how the 🇪🇺 can make its rearmament credible, effective & affordable given the challenge posed by 🇷🇺. Key points: build a common defence market, pool industrial capacities, boost R&D to reduce reliance on the US for strategic technologies.

Europa muss Putin mit offensiven Rakten abschrecken Eine Luftabwehr, die sich auf Drohnenabschuss beschränkt, reicht nicht aus, um Putin abzuschrecken. Dazu braucht Europa Marschflugkörper und Hyperschallraketen, die tief in russisches Territorium vord...

Mit offensiven Raketen abschrecken --- A Burilkov und ich argumentieren, warum reine Luftverteidigung nicht mehr ausreicht und Europa Kapazitäten zur Abschreckung durch Stärke benötigt. Und wie man diese aufbauen kann
www.faz.net/aktuell/poli...

📸 Eben beim #Industriepolitik-Panel bei der #VfS_Conf2025 @vfsecon.bsky.social

💟 Danke @guntramwolff.bsky.social, @monika-schnitzer.com, @sdullien.bsky.social, Michael #Hüther und Beate #Baron (Moderation: @kbiesenbender.bsky.social).

🏭 Vertiefung ⤵️
www.wirtschaftsdienst.eu/inhalt/jahr/...

Romania scrambles jets, Poland closes airport over Russian drone alerts "Russian military personnel know exactly where their drones are headed and how long they can stay in the air," President Volodymyr Zelensky said, commenting on the attacks. "The routes are always calc...

NATO members Romania and Poland scramble jet, Poland closes airport over Russian drones. One Russian war drone went sightseeing for 50 minutes in Romania.

Totally predictable outcome, a direct result of Europe's ongoing cowardice.
kyivindependent.com/romania-scra...

Today, a difficult State of the Union address. #SOTEU . From defence to trade and the weak economy and the continued political fragility in France: what will the Commission President say?

Frankreich - nterview mit Ökonom Guntram Wolff zu ökonomischen Folgen der Krise

Interview im #Deutschlandfunk zur politischen Krise in Frankreich und ihren ökonomischen Folgen. Frankreich muss seinen Haushalt sanieren, aber das wird kaum gelingen ohne einen breiteren gesellschaftlichen Konsens. Den sehe ich noch nicht.

www.deutschlandfunk.de/oekonomische...

Ukraine battles air defence shortage as Pentagon slows shipments Moscow has stepped up attacks during Trump’s attempts to broker a peace deal, heaping pressure on Kyiv’s stocks

No surprise here as Elbridge Colby had announced multiple times that he wants to de-prioritize weapon shipments to Europe: Ukraine battles air defence shortage as Pentagon slows shipments www.ft.com/content/26df...

❗ LIVE NOW: The future of Europe’s defence
🔗 buff.ly/VQS0Bks

🗣️ @guntramwolff.bsky.social, Bertrand Dumont (French Treasury), @kristiraik.bsky.social @icds-tallinn.bsky.social & @simonassatunas.bsky.social @ec.europa.eu

join us for what promises to be an exciting discussion

Europe has recently pivoted to regulatory simplification with the aim to boost competitiveness. This column argues that in banking the debate needs to go beyond competitiveness and be embedded within a broader strategic vision fit for the new geopolitical context. The broader vision should consider the dependence on the US dollar-centric financial system, the increasing complexity of global financial networks, and the emergence of new financial technologies such as stablecoins. At the same time, the strategy should bolster the euro’s use in trade, finance, and reserves in order to reduce Europe’s exposure to external financial shocks and geopolitical leverage. By enhancing trust in our financial institutions, this strategy would contribute to their competitiveness and that of the overall EU economy.

A broader discussion of European banking needs to be had in the new geopolitical context. $ dependence, complexity of global financial networks, & new tech such as stablecoins should be taken into account.
M Dewatripont, P Praet, A Sapir, @guntramwolff.bsky.social‬
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky