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Mark McGeoghegan

@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social

πŸ“Š Quant political science & πŸ—³οΈ Scottish politics & elections @glasgow.ac.uk | πŸ“š Research Associate @uofgpolicy.bsky.social‬ | πŸ“œ Associate Member @ccc-research.bsky.social | πŸ–‹οΈ in various publications

17,566 Followers  |  2,448 Following  |  5,325 Posts  |  Joined: 29.09.2023
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Posts by Mark McGeoghegan (@markmcgeoghegan.bsky.social)

Worth stating that Sir Robin, aged 71, hasn't been an active politician since 2018...

04.03.2026 10:55 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Thanks, Louise

04.03.2026 09:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

You know you've become a parent when you enjoy a podcast appearance primarily because you know you won't be asked to change a nappy for 30 mins...

04.03.2026 09:07 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

List vote? Yes. Constituency vote? No. In fact the SNP's constituency voting intention declined in the final months of the 2016 and 2021 elections.

04.03.2026 08:16 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

If it's good enough for your 1998 Chevy, it's good enough for your beloved dog.

03.03.2026 19:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Wat

03.03.2026 19:44 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Americans really do have the gall to talk about Count Binface or the Official Monster Raving Loony Party (some of whose policies have become actual govt policy) while having candidates whose profile is based on what amounts to a fancy tea towel.

03.03.2026 19:41 β€” πŸ‘ 20    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

Updated Scotland poll tracker.

SNP 5 short of a majority.

Pro-independence majority of 15.

Seats (+/- 2021)

SNP: 60 (-4)
Ref: 21 (+21)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Grn: 12 (+4)
Con: 10 (-21)
LD: 8 (+4)
Alba: 0 (-)

1/2

03.03.2026 12:08 β€” πŸ‘ 42    πŸ” 21    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1

Yes, North Western and Northern (very narrowly).

03.03.2026 16:59 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

"Peace in our time. No forever wars."

Oh! They got this all screwed up!

"Peace in our time? No! Forever wars!"

03.03.2026 16:58 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

They need to start putting Both Votes Lib Dem on their leaflets.

03.03.2026 16:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

We're talking about pretty narrow margins for the Lib Dems getting a list seat in either region, tbh.

03.03.2026 16:51 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Thirdly, Reform are not just UKIP. If they were, they'd be going nowhere anywhere in Scotland. They've become a major anti-establishment party. Even if they were just UKIP, and seen as such, the EU referendum was a decade ago...

03.03.2026 16:50 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I guess there's a few things there. Firstly, the SNP and Liberal Democrats will win too many constituencies to feature on the list, leaving that wide open.

Secondly, E&LE is not just Edinburgh, and certainly not the parts of Edinburgh that have had by-elections, which aren't totally representative.

03.03.2026 16:50 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

And list seats by region:

03.03.2026 16:29 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

Lewis can defend his own position, but I disagree that he brushed it off.

03.03.2026 13:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I think he repeatedly acknowledged the harm caused, actually. And likewise that questions need to be asked of BAFTA and the BBC - around a) why a mic was positioned in front of John, and b) why this wasn't edited out given the 2 hour time delay.

03.03.2026 13:21 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

This. Weird shit happens in by-elections. I doubt they win that large a share of the vote in G&D in a general election if they're polling just 23%.

03.03.2026 12:58 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm very much in favour of reforming the Lord Advocate role, but personalising and party-politicising the tensions inherent in the role as it exists is extremely unhelpful hackery.

03.03.2026 12:53 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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The Lord Advocate continues to attend Cabinet either a) at the request of Government Ministers, or b) whenever matters pertaining to the Crown Office or Procurator Fiscal are under discussion.

Dorothy Bain has been absent from 3-in-5 Cabinet meetings since becoming Lord Advocate.

03.03.2026 12:53 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

If we got this result with these vote shares, the election would have a Gallagher Index of nearly 14 - far more disproportional than any previous Scottish Parliament election, entirely thanks to the fact FPTP constituencies make up a majority of the Parliament.

03.03.2026 12:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Constituency vote (+/- 2021):

SNP: 34.8% (-12.9)
Ref: 18.4% (+18.4)
Lab: 16.8% (-4.7)
Con: 10.2% (-11.7)
LD: 9.3% (+2.3)
Grn: 8.3% (+7)

List vote (+/- 2021):

SNP: 28.4% (-12)
Ref: 18.4% (+18.2)
Lab: 16.4% (-1.5)
Con: 11.3% (-12.2)
LD: 9.6% (+4.6)
Grn: 12.1% (+4)
Alba: 2.2% (+0.5)

2/2

03.03.2026 12:08 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Updated Scotland poll tracker.

SNP 5 short of a majority.

Pro-independence majority of 15.

Seats (+/- 2021)

SNP: 60 (-4)
Ref: 21 (+21)
Lab: 18 (-4)
Grn: 12 (+4)
Con: 10 (-21)
LD: 8 (+4)
Alba: 0 (-)

1/2

03.03.2026 12:08 β€” πŸ‘ 42    πŸ” 21    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 1
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Our latest voting intention (1-2 March 2026) has the Greens on their highest figure ever recorded by YouGov, significantly ahead of Labour, who are on their lowest figure to date

Reform UK: 23% (-1 from 22-23 Feb)
Greens: 21% (+4)
Conservatives: 16% (-2)
Labour: 16% (-2)
Lib Dems: 14% (=)

03.03.2026 09:33 β€” πŸ‘ 72    πŸ” 20    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 22

The result of Iranian actions, yes, actions in reaction to a war launched against them by the US and Israel.

I hate the Iranian regime as much as the next guy, but skyrocketing energy prices was an obvious and inevitable consequence of the United States' actions in starting this war.

02.03.2026 21:15 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

Eh, SNL can be funny. It's the odd sketch, and usually because the guest is funny (Shane Gillis, recently. Louis CK was very funny on SNL).

02.03.2026 20:35 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

You'd be forgiven for thinking that Tourettes simply doesn't exist in the US, based on the response to him. Except it does, including among African Americans, and it's African Americans with Tourettes that I feel worst for, frankly. As if they needed their condition invalidated by their community...

02.03.2026 19:31 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

Couldn't agree more with @lewisgoodall.com & @jonsopel1.bsky.social's takes on the controversy around John Davidson's appearance at the BAFTAs on today's @thenewsagents.co.uk.

The total lack of empathy on show from some of the world's wealthiest, most privileged people is frankly disgraceful.

02.03.2026 19:29 β€” πŸ‘ 96    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 0

In terms of polls in the BBS tracker, this is the worst for both the Conservatives and Labour: their combined total of 20 projected seats is fewer than the 22 (21 accounting for boundary changes) that Labour alone won in 2021. Also on upper end of Green polling so take it with a barrel of salt.

02.03.2026 19:20 β€” πŸ‘ 32    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 1

David Cameron, 2011: β€œI am not a naive neocon who thinks you can drop democracy out of an aeroplane at ten thousand feet.”
Kemi Badenoch, 2026: β€œThe only reason not to back this war without caveat is if you’re looking to get support from the Mozzies!”

02.03.2026 11:27 β€” πŸ‘ 214    πŸ” 46    πŸ’¬ 9    πŸ“Œ 2