Rachel Ziemba

Permanent sanctions exemption on Rosneft Germany shouldnt be seen as sign of broad sanctions relief. The entity is basically managed by Germany and doesnt use Russian oil, a reflection of implicit nationalization.

That said other non-enforcement possible
ofac.treasury.gov/media/935096...

Took a brief break from writing about Iran and talking to investors to visit the copper-clad and Rio Tinto supported Utah museum of natural history in SLC. Lots of energy (renewable mostly) and mining content as well as fascinating physical and social history

Nominations Sent to the Senate Jeffrey Brodsky, of Florida, to be a Governor of the United States Postal Service for a term expiring December 8, 2029. Adam Cassady, of Virginia, to be

A few imp appointments announced by WH today incl international affairs at DoE, US rep to IAEA (ambassador to Austria), also rep to ASEAN). Filling open amb posts key always esp in crisis. need senate confirmation which has been stalled for many posts
www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

There are new sanctions on a few Russian entities today - but relating to cyber insecurity and theft of Cyber tools. Cyber sanctions are vast majority of sanctions imposed on Russian entities in Trump admin and have been an area of coordination,
content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...

Highlights a few things
- congress not going to greenlight a deal without end to conflict,
- some tariffs might still get through Congress but so many questions on enforcement.
- graham willing to buy into Trump preference for tariffs vs Sanctions, even if less efficient

Lindsey Graham doubling down on secondary tariffs and his long-delayed bill on Russia. His frame that tariffs on India led to its decline in imports of Russian oil is at least incomplete. At minimum sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil were critical and EU product changes helped

x.com/lindseygraha...

Australia and Canada also added more sanctions on individuals/entities and 100+ vessels as well as some crypto networks, but this is a smaller subset of other measures.

Canada for example also matched drop in price cap level.

List of Russia sanctions targets, 24 February 2026

Sanctions divergence on Russia on full display today on the Anniversary of the full scale invasion- UK out w some powerful measures more impactful on insurance, but EU held off on new measures due to lack of consensus and US uninterested in new measures.

www.gov.uk/government/p...

Where are We in the Tariff War? Cobbling Together New Tariff Powers A few questions on trade, tariffs and executive powers

I wrote up a few questions about the tariff path head

open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

Imposing a Temporary Import Surcharge to Address Fundamental International Payments Problems BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA A PROCLAMATION The United States plays a pivotal role in shaping the global economy. At the same time, Every child deserves a safe and nurturing home w...

EO imposing global tariff via section 122 of 1974 trade act maintains many most of the key exemptions- energy, critical minerals, fertilizer, most electronics, several food products, and autos (so not stackable on top the 232s)

www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

Also includes a US corporate investment in copper.

US is also dangling potential of reducing some sectoral tariffs if the trade agreement supports national security- such as Board of peace agreements or contributions in Gaza? Or maybe econ security clauses wrt China.

It appears the textile deal is volume based and may involve Indonesian processing of US cotton products, tho details are scarse. Still its one of the first such agreements as far as I am aware.

Fact Sheet: Trump Administration Finalizes Trade Deal with Indonesia ACHIEVING RECIPROCAL TRADE: Today, the Trump Administration finalized a landmark trade agreement with Indonesia that will provide Americans with

Indonesia-US trade deal out finally
-includes many similar aspects to recent trade deals including economic security clauses and pledges to buy US energy, planes and ags.
More surprising is US agreement to drop some textile tariffs to 0.

www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

Super short press release does call out economic security (one of the stumbling blocks with many SEA trade agreements tho. Notably Indonesia was one of countries not seen to be in attendance at critical mineral ministerial despite major mining- likely due to key chinese role in ecosystem.

Implementation of the Agreement Toward a NEW GOLDEN AGE for the U.S.-Indonesian Alliance President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump, and President of the Republic of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, met in Washington, D.C., on

Indonesia’s participation in the Board of Peace and agreement to send military to Gaza seems to have jolted improvement in bilateral ties even though trade agreement has been stalled. Statement on new golden age for bilateral ties is super short details.
www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-st...

Takeaways from London: Energy and Investment Outlook Some thoughts, conspiracies and questions from IE Week

A few thoughts on energy and EM global investment from the sidelines of IE week and other London meetings

open.substack.com/pub/rziemba/...

Qatar PM arrives in Venezuela on first trip since Maduro’s ouster: What to know Qatar is moving to shore up ties with Venezuela as the US seeks greater control over the South American country’s oil revenues.

Al-monitor on Qatari PM’s visit to Caracas - would imagine they are among those interested in investment tho more in non-energy sector, arguably less an interest in mediating between Ven and US govts. But they may have an interest in NG viability.

www.al-monitor.com/originals/20...

EU won't 'shy away' from new sanctions on Russia if G7 deal fails Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said a G7 deal is not an "absolute precondition" for a full ban on maritime services for Russian tankers. Brussels wants the new sanctions approved by 24 Februa...

Some EU leaders now suggesting formal G7 agreement not needed for the maritime services ban. We hadnt thought formal US approval necessary as US was not enforcing or doing much on price cap. USG generally against the price cap, but hard to see them enforcing a ban

www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Trade deficit remained near record high in 2025 A Commerce Department report is expected to show Thursday that the U.S. goods trade deficit remained in record territory in 2025 despite a big drop in imports from China.

So, no metal tariff relief imminent or at least not yet? USG pulling back on reports that cuts to steel or aluminum tariffs coming, or trying to frame as small adjustments. These tariffs help steel/aluminum production but raise downstream costs.

www.politico.com/newsletters/...

As the 2/18 deadline for the general license allowing for divestment expires expect more announcements about Lukoil assets also this issue about compensation remains an issue and will force USG to show their priorities. My hunch is that the GL will be extended.

Lukoil Seeks West Qurna-2 Settlement With Iraq Lukoil wants to settle with Iraq and exit West Qurna-2 ahead of this month’s US deadline to sell off its international assets. A deal would remove commercial and legal barriers to a Chevron takeover, ...

Good summary @yesar on ongoing discussions about Lukoil divestments in iraq. Challenge remains around compensation. USG doesnt any deal that sends cash to Russia and Lukoil wary of exiting w/out compensation. Will goal of having assets in US hands trump?
www.mees.com/2026/2/13/ge...

Actions to Implement President Trump’s Vision for Venezuelan Oil - United States Department of State The Trump Administration is rapidly implementing President Trump’s vision to reopen and develop Venezuela’s oil industry for the shared benefit of the American and Venezuelan people. Thanks to Preside...

USG wrote about what they think they are doing here. Reinforces fact that US goods and services and naptha prioritized but global partners can participate as long as contracts set under US law. Relative lattitude for IOCs already present…

links-2.govdelivery.com/CL0/https:%2...

I wrote up a little of what I think todays venezuela GLs mean

substack.com/profile/2529...

GL 50 seems to allow several US and European IOCs pretty free reign to engage in exploration activities in 🇻🇪 and to pay taxes, fees etc- which seems to allow some stream of funds to pdvsa and govt

Actual real exploration contracts may still require special licenses. USG is learning from feedback and trying to avoid overcompliance. In a way need for many GLs is flipside of sanctions escalation by closing loopholes. These clarify that gap activities legal

Like others GL excludes Russia, Iran, DpRK, Cuba and mostly China. The question of how to deal with Chinese JVs is still looming. Too much boxing out of China would limit production increases but US definitely wants to stamp out illicit trade and make sure China not beneficiary.

OFAC is currently a Venezuela general license issuing machine, churning out many general licenses in the last week or so, to address loopholes that stopped purchases + investment.
Latest allow for contracts for some work needed to explore O&G exploration/prod inv

ofac.treasury.gov/media/935011...

New vesselscoming online and sanctioned vessels (at least US sanctioned ones) struggling to find cargos but deadlock over paying for such vessels has delayed scrappage. Will more owners dump their rickety sanctioned vessels? Will they just try to get rid of the liabilities

Will 2026+ be a big year for global tanker fleet turnover including scrappage @EnergySPG freight folks seem to think so, assuming a lot more scrappage this year and escalating ahead. A lot of new vessels being delivered but will a sanctions-related workaround follow?

Power granted to commerce Sec to assess if country is trading and then to State, together with other members of Cabinet to decide on levels. Still a lot of scope to vary the tariffs and decide ti implement.
US sounding tough on econ pressure- does this mean too soon for miltary?