Rachel Ziemba

Still no details on what the “penalty” to India (and maybe others) from their Russian fuel trade would look like? A credible threat to Russia might have more details? And to recap, more financial sanctions that actually enforce past ones might be more effective than tariffs…

The problems are many 1) many of the countries in bucket 3 have relatively small trade with US 2) continued complete lack of focus on impact on US services trade which could continue to weaken in areas like tourism 3) Americans pay tariffs not foreigners

USG claims it has three tariff buckets 1) countries for which US has a surplus -10%, 15-20% for those countries with a deal, 30% for those with bigger goods deficits. Problem is, the goods deficit with Canada is all oil that facilitates US fuel exports.

t.co/hYmCZeHLfb

Canada has been stepping up its own tariffs on steel which could make steel coordimation easier. Aluminum too is effectively an energy play. Overall US is belatedly coming up with differentiated exemptions, exactly what trump admin said they didnt like about last policies.

“U.S. is working with Ottawa on the punishing metals tariffs that are harming the U.S. auto industry.”
Reminder - it is US tariffs that are hurting the US autos. Still suggests USG getting memo that higher industrial input tariffs are bad for US business. Metals alliance ahead?

t.co/mHZRlV1GWo

Canadian maple syrup finds itself in a sticky tariff situation Production hit a record after a stretch of bad harvests but US tariffs threaten to change everything

FT on a growing maple syrup glut in Canada that threatens to overflow strategic reserves. They frame rising US tariffs as a risk, but isnt maple syrup USMCA compliant?

www.ft.com/content/30f3...

Other sanctions in Iran energy trade also. Scale of the designations may be indicated by fact that there is a general license issued that allows for off-loading of cargo from sanctioned vessels if not at an iranian or Russia port, likely primarily for non energy

ofac.treasury.gov/media/934536...

Treasury Takes Massive Action Against High-Profile Iranian Network Biggest Iran-related sanctions package since 2018 targets corrupt regime-linked shipping empire that has funneled billions to TehranWASHINGTON — Today, in its largest Iran-related action since 2018, the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating more than 50 individuals and entities and identifying more than 50 vessels that are part of the vast shipping empire controlled by Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani (Hossein). Hossein—the son of Ali Shamkhani, a top political advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran—leverages corruption through his father’s political influence at the highest levels of the Iranian regime to build and operate a massive fleet of tankers and containerships. This network transports oil and petroleum products from Iran and Russia, as well as other cargo, to buyers around the world, generating tens of billions of dollars in profit. “The Shamkhani family’s shipping empire highlights how the Iranian regime elites leverage their positions to accrue massive wealth and fund the regime’s dangerous behavior,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent.  “The over 115 sanctions issued today are the largest to-date since the Trump Administration implemented our campaign of maximum pressure on Iran. These actions put America first by targeting regime elites that profit while Tehran threatens the safety of the United States.”Hossein’s network exerts control over a significant portion of Iran’s crude oil exports, the proceeds of which substantially benefit his family and the Iranian regime.  His father, Ali Shamkhani was previously sanctioned by the U.S. in 2020.  The Shamkhani family further exploits their ill-gotten wealth to obtain access to benefits unavailable to everyday Iranians, including owning exclusive properties around the world and obtaining foreign passports in exchange for substantial financial investments.  These passports allow them to travel undetected and hide their connections to Iran when conducting business overseas in furtherance of their corrupt schemes.Today’s action was taken pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13902, which targets those operating in certain sectors of the Iranian economy.  Today’s action also reflects OFAC’s ongoing close collaboration with Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and is in furtherance of Treasury’s implementation of National Security Presidential Memorandum 2 (NSPM-2), instituting a campaign of maximum economic pressure on Iran.Concurrently, the Department of State is designating 20 entities and identifying 10 vessels as blocked property, pursuant to E.O. 13846 and E.O. 13902, for their involvement in the trade and transport of Iranian petroleum and petrochemical products.iranian OIL and cargo network Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani’s (Hossein) network comprises a vast fleet of vessels, ship management firms, and front companies—some posing as legitimate financial services firms—that launder billions in profits from global sales of Iranian and Russian crude oil and other petroleum products, most often to buyers in China.  The network employs significant measures to disguise its operations and obfuscate its ties to the Shamkhani family, Iran, and Russia.  Hossein solely uses aliases when conducting network business which include “H,” “Hector,” and “Hugo Hayek,” the false name listed on his Dominica passport.  The network’s fleet, which consists of both oil tankers and containerships, undergoes frequent changes in the operators and managers of each vessel to ensure that determining the ultimate responsibility for any particular vessel remains opaque and difficult to trace back to the Shamkhani family.  The fleet at times has been given preferential treatment over other vessels when loading or unloading in Iranian ports.  Hossein is intimately involved in the management of the network’s illicit activities through various companies, including United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based Marvise SMC DMCC (Marvise), formerly known as Mairin Ship Management and Consultancy DMCC, which provides management services to many of Hossein’s shipping firms and secretly controls a fleet of dozens of vessels that publicly appear to be owned by multiple other companies transporting crude oil and liquified petroleum gas for Iran. Hossein personally oversees Marvise’s operations in Tehran, Iran.  Historically, much of Hossein’s tanker fleet fell under the purview of UAE-based Armada Global Shipping DMCC (Armada Global), an umbrella company that managed dozens of vessels used by the network until as recently as early 2025. UAE-based firms Koban Shipping L.L.C, Crios Shipping L.L.C (Crios Shipping), and Fractal Marine DMCC have also played important roles in the management and operation of the network’s fleet of tankers and containerships.  In 2024, Hossein’s network, including Crios Shipping, was publicly exposed for its involvement in shipping missiles, drone components, and dual-use goods from Iran to Russia in exchange for shipments of Russian petroleum.  Hossein’s companies subsequently sold to overseas buyers, with the proceeds of the sales benefiting Hossein’s network. Crios Shipping and other companies in Hossein’s network incorporate special purpose vehicles in offshore jurisdictions, such as Marshall Islands-registered Oka Shipping Inc., for the sole purpose of managing vessels on their behalf, insulating the rest of the network from legal risk.  Crios Shipping is also closely related to Oceanlink Maritime DMCC (Oceanlink), a UAE-based entity in Hossein’s network that was designated on April 4, 2024 for its role facilitating shipments on behalf of Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL) and Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) affiliate Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars Company (Sepehr Energy).  OFAC designated Sepehr Energy on November 29, 2023, for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of MODAFL.Although the primary income source for Hossein’s network is oil sales, the network also operates a containership fleet that carries cargo both to and from Iran, among other locations. In an attempt to evade prohibitions on the sale of certain non-humanitarian goods to Iran, Hossein’s network offers certain overseas sellers Iranian oil in lieu of payment.  The network’s containerships have utilized obfuscation tactics similar to those used by tankers carrying Iranian oil. For example, the Liberia-flagged BIGLI (IMO 9307047) loaded Iranian petrochemicals that were then discharged in China, with bills of lading showing signs of possible modification, which is a red flag for Iranian sanctions violations.  The Saint Vincent and the Grenadines-flagged ACE (IMO 9228538) similarly loaded a shipment of goods in Iran, turning off its automatic identification system (AIS) transponder during loading, and misrepresented cargo information in bills of lading.  UAE-based Reel Shipping L.L.C (Reel Shipping) manages a fleet of seven containerships on behalf of Hossein’s network (see the Annex for Reel Shipping’s blocked vessels), some of which count other Hossein-affiliated sanctioned entities among their historical management.  Singapore-based Draco Buren Shipping PTE. Ltd. (Draco Buren) is one of the myriad shipping companies created to manage the Hossein network’s fleet, managing 21 vessels at its peak for Hossein’s network, including both containerships and crude oil tankers. Switzerland-based Progwin Shipping SA (Progwin Shipping), formerly known as Fractal Shipping SA and managed by French and UK national Mathieu Alain Michel Philippe (Philippe), has drawn public attention for the unusual speed at which it assembled an expansive fleet of aging tankers, and for Progwin Shipping and Philippe’s willingness to exploit the high rates of return in shipping Russian oil, all for the benefit of Hossein’s network.  In early 2024, following Progwin Shipping’s public exposure, UAE-based BPT Shipping Co L.L.C and Türkiye-based Westanker Denizcilik Ve Ticaret Limited Sirketi (Westanker Denizcilik) took over management of a group of vessels formerly managed by Progwin Shipping, helping Hossein’s network obfuscate the true ownership of its fleet.  Westanker Denizcilik managed its new vessels in part through Marshall Islands-registered Westanker Limited.   UAE-based entities The Zulu Ships Management and Operation - Sole Proprietorship L.L.C (Zulu Ships), Wanta Shipping L.L.C-FZ, and Algae Ship Charter - FZCO (Algae Ship) are among the many shipping companies in Hossein’s network that regularly shuffle in and out of management and operator roles for the network’s fleet.  Zulu Ships manages ten vessels, while Algae Ship operates three vessels contained in the network’s fleet (see the Annex for full vessel list).UAE-based G M C G Shipping L.L.C and Cyprus-based GMCG Ltd. have incorporated and paid fees for front companies used by Hossein’s network, including Marshall Islands-based Neo Shipping Inc.  UAE-based International Shipping Bureau L.L.C has also incorporated several companies that operate within the Hossein network.  UAE-based Thamoud Mohammed Muhsin al-Azzawi is the managing director of G M C G Shipping L.L.C.  Panama-based Hector Varela de Leon founded Panama-based GMCG Holding Corp and currently serves as its director.  Mohamed Rafeek Habibullah Habibullah (Habibullah) and Hector Varela de Leon previously served as executives of a likely front company that once managed the FENG TAI, which in 2024 was sanctioned for transporting oil loaded in Iran on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF).  Habibullah also collected payments related to Sepehr Energy shipments of Iranian oil.In 2024, Hossein’s network purchased Russian oil in a transaction involving UAE-based Cober FZCO DMCC for resale to overseas buyers. Teodor Shipping L.L.C is a UAE-based vessel management firm that has received millions of dollars from Hossein’s network for management of vessels transporting Iranian petroleum and petroleum products.  Marshall Islands-based shipping company Cora Lines Inc. is a subsidiary of Teodor Shipping L.L.C.  UAE-based Indian national Pankaj Nagjibhai Patel (Patel) has served as an executive on several shipping companies in Hossein’s network, including Teodor Shipping L.L.C.  Patel is also the director of India-based Shreeji Gems Ltd.Hong Kong-based firms Teton Global Trading Limited and Ultimate Spirit Limited—and UAE-based firms Carlington Petrochem FZCO, Etana Trading DMCC, and Max Energy Fuel Trading L.L.C—have been involved in transporting oil and laundering the funds for the network. While under the ownership of Marshall Islands-based Weser Shipping Inc., Cameroon-flagged TRIS GAS (IMO 9041655), part of the fleet of vessels used by Teodor Shipping L.L.C, transported multiple LPG cargos from Iran to the UAE and China.Hossein Shamkhani, Weser Shipping Inc., Mohamed Rafeek Habibullah Habibullah, and Hector Varela de Leon are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for operating in the petroleum sector of the Iranian economy.  TRIS GAS is being identified as property in which Weser Shipping Inc. has an interest. Marvise SMC DMCC, Armada Global Shipping DMCC, Koban Shipping L.L.C, Crios Shipping L.L.C, Fractal Marine DMCC, Draco Buren Shipping PTE. Ltd., Reel Shipping L.L.C, Progwin Shipping SA, BPT Shipping Co L.L.C, Westanker Denizcilik Ve Ticaret Limited Sirketi, Westanker Limited, The Zulu Ships Management and Operation - Sole Proprietorship L.L.C, Wanta Shipping L.L.C-FZ, Algae Ship Charter - FZCO, G M C G Shipping L.L.C, GMCG Ltd., International Shipping Bureau L.L.C, and Teodor Shipping L.L.C are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Hossein Shamkhani.  Cober FZCO DMCC is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Nest Wise Petroleum L.L.C.Cora Lines Inc. is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Teodor Shipping L.L.C.  GMCG Holding Corp is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Hector Varela de Leon.  Thamoud Mohammed Muhsin al-Azzawi is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, G M C G Shipping L.L.C.  Shreeji Gems Ltd is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Patel.Oka Shipping Inc. is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Crios Shipping L.L.C.  Mathieu Alain Michel Philippe is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Progwin Shipping SA.  Teton Global Trading Limited, Ultimate Spirit Limited, Carlington Petrochem FZCO, Etana Trading DMCC, and Max Energy Fuel Trading L.L.C are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Nest Wise Petroleum L.L.C. LAUNDERING HOSSEIN NETWORK FUNDSBillions of dollars in income from Hossein network’s illicit trade are transferred through a global network of front companies designed to disguise the trail back to Iran.  Layers of front companies with an innocuous appearance and no easily discernible connection to Hossein’s network allow it to accrue enormous profits while avoiding outside scrutiny.One of Hossein’s key associates, UAE-based Yves Leon Agnes Demasure (Demasure), is the former chief investment officer of UAE-based hedge fund Ocean Leonid Investments Ltd (Ocean Leonid), which trades in futures, options, and securities, primarily in oil, gas, and metals.  Ocean Leonid receives the funds that constitute its portfolio via the proceeds of Hossein’s sales of oil and gas to overseas buyers.  Hossein is involved in Ocean Leonid’s investment decisions despite serving no official role in the business.  Owned by UAE-based Oenergy Commodities DMCC, Ocean Leonid has branches in Switzerland (Ocean Leonid Investments AG) and Singapore (Ocean Leonid Investments Singapore PTE. Ltd.).  Demasure served a prominent role in leading Ocean Leonid to substantial profits between early 2021 and 2024, a period in which Hossein’s network sold substantial volumes of Iranian and Russian oil overseas. UAE-based commodities trading and shipping firm Milavous Group Ltd is another important component in Hossein’s network, assisting Hossein in arranging sales of Iranian oil and gas and laundering the proceeds.  Milavous Group Ltd’s success in selling billions of dollars of oil can be attributed to the steps taken by Hossein’s network to ensure it appeared above board, disguising the Iranian and Russian origin of the oil it sold.  Milavous Group Ltd owns Türkiye-based Green Energy Chemicals Enerji Kimyasallari Sanayi Ticaret Anonim Sirketi.  UAE-based Milavous Holding Limited and Milavous Commodities Holding Limited are both affiliates of Milavous Group Ltd, all functioning as part of Hossein’s network out of the same location. UAE-based Nest Wise Petroleum L.L.C occupies a similar role to Milavous Group Ltd, maintaining the appearance of a legitimate trader of oil and gas, while in reality managing much of the network’s purchases of Iranian and Russian oil and gas and their subsequent shipment and sale to overseas buyers.  Nest Wise Petroleum L.L.C is the sole shareholder of branches in Romania (Nest Wise Trading S.R.L.) and Singapore (Nest Wise Trading PTE. Ltd.). Ocean Leonid Investments Ltd, Oenergy Commodities DMCC, Ocean Leonid Investments AG, Nest Wise Petroleum L.L.C, and Milavous Group Ltd are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Hossein Shamkhani. Ocean Leonid Investments Singapore PTE. Ltd. is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Ocean Leonid Investments Ltd.  Yves Leon Agnes Demasure is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Ocean Leonid Investments Ltd.  Nest Wise Trading S.R.L. and Nest Wise Trading PTE. Ltd. are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Nest Wise Petroleum L.L.C.  Green Energy Chemicals Enerji Kimyasallari Sanayi Ticaret Anonim Sirketiis being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Milavous Group Ltd.  Milavous Holding Limited is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Milavous Group Ltd.  Milavous Commodities Holding Limited is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Milavous Holding Limited.KEY NETWORK PERSONNELHossein’s network is notable for the sophisticated techniques it uses for evading sanctions, laundering money, and obfuscating paper trails, ultimately insulating those responsible from culpability.  The network relies on witting personnel at multiple levels of management across numerous jurisdictions to manage its expansive illicit business operations. Alireza Derakhshan (Derakhshan), a dual national of Iran and Dominica who primarily resides in Monaco and the UAE, is a prominent figure in the shipping portion of Hossein’s network.  Derakhshan is a ship captain with a long history of sanctions evasion and transporting Iranian oil.  Derakshan owns UAE-based Captain Dynasty Shipping L.L.C and previously served as the manager of Teodor Shipping L.L.C. Italian national Elisabetta Cadeddu serves as the owner and shareholder of companies in Hossein’s network, including UAE-based Max Energy Fuel Trading L.L.C, a company used by Hossein to add layers of transactions between the Iranian or Russian sellers and the ultimate buyers of petroleum cargos. Indian nationals Jacob Kurian and Anil Kumar Panackal Narayanan Nair have served as the sole shareholder and director, respectively, of Marshall Islands-based Neo Shipping Inc., the registered owner of the ABHRA (IMO 9282041), one of the fleet of vessels managed on behalf of Hossein’s network.UAE-based Elyas Jafer Tambe, who is associated with several shipping companies that are tied to Hossein’s network, held various roles with multiple network companies, including Koban Shipping L.L.C.Alireza Derakhshan, Elyas Jafer Tambe, and Neo Shipping Inc. are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Hossein Shamkhani. Captain Dynasty Shipping L.L.C is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Alireza Derakhshan.  Pankaj Nagjibhai Patel is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Teodor Shipping L.L.C.  Elisabetta Cadeddu is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Max Energy Fuel Trading L.L.C.  Jacob Kurian and Anil Kumar Panackal Narayanan Nair are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being owned or controlled by, or having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, Neo Shipping Inc. Annex: Hossein’s fleetThe following vessels are being blocked pursuant to E.O. 13902 for being in the interest of Hossein Shamkhani: Tanzania-flagged URANUS (IMO 9248485), Panamanian-flagged OMNI (IMO 9400980), which counts Draco Buren, Wanta Shipping L.L.C-FZ, and Armada Global Shipping DMCC among its former management and ownership, operate on behalf of Hossein Shamkhani. The URANUS and the OMNI are being identified pursuant to E.O. 13902 as property in the interest of Hossein.The Shamkhani network’s fleet also includes vessels owned, managed, and operated by special purpose vehicles incorporated specifically for providing a legal and financial insulation around each of Hossein Shamkhani’s vessels.  The following management firms are being designated and their respective vessels are being blocked pursuant to E.O. 13902.The following vessels are being blocked for being property in the interest of The Zulu Ships Management and Operation - Sole Proprietorship L.L.C: the Panama-flagged AETHER (IMO 9328170), APATE (IMO 9433016), BRIONT (IMO 9252955), ETHERA (IMO 9387279), MANASLU (IMO 9388027), MISHELL (IMO 9332315), MYRA (IMO 9336490), TAGOR (IMO 9282481), and TOA PAYOH (IMO 9298492) and the Liberia-flagged NEMRUT (IMO 9439541) and TASSOS (IMO 9408695). The following vessels are being blocked in the interest of Algae Ship Charter - FZCO: the Liberia-flagged ANTARES I (IMO 9382073), the Panama-flagged CHARMINAR (IMO 9318022) and the unknown-flagged EVENTIN (IMO 9308065).Marshall Islands-based Nova Lines Inc. is the registered owner of Palau-flagged ELKE (IMO 9012886), which has transported Iranian petroleum products. Nova Lines Inc. is being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for operating in the petroleum sector of the Iranian economy. The ELKE is being identified as property in which Nova Lines Inc. has an interest. The following vessels are being blocked in the interest of Marvise SMC DMCC: the Liberia-flagged ALE (IMO 9303754), BERTIE (IMO 9241487), BIGLI (IMO 9307047), HAKUNA MATATA (IMO 9354167), LIDIA (IMO 9330501), MOANA (IMO 9292151), PINOCCHIO (IMO 9400112), PUMBA (IMO 9302566), RANTANPLAN (IMO 9307023), SIMBA (IMO 9719862), STAR (IMO 9436484), TEX (IMO 9246322), TIMON (IMO 9415844), YOGI (IMO 9307009), ZAGOR (IMO 9313242) and the San Marino-flagged VANI (IMO 9264881), which was formerly managed and operated by Progwin Shipping SA.The following vessels are being blocked in the interest of Reel Shipping L.L.C: the Saint Vincent and the Grenadines-flagged ACE (IMO 9228538); the Liberia-flagged AEOLUS (IMO 9088524), ROB (IMO 9236652), and TB ANPING (IMO 9237084); the St. Kitts and Nevis-flagged CERUS (IMO 9259408) and DHANU (IMO 9122473); and the Panama-flagged GAUJA (IMO 9348493). The following shipping firms are being designated pursuant to E.O. 13902 for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of Hossein Shamkhani.  Their respective vessels are being identified as blocked property pursuant to E.O. 13902:Marshall Islands-based Silver Tetra Marine Co.: Liberia-flagged GUANYIN (IMO 9299707);Marshall Islands-based Ravi Lines Inc: Panama-flagged IANTHE (IMO 9554822);Marshall Islands-based Kanti Lines Inc.: San Marino-flagged KANTI (IMO 9282106);Marshall Islands-based Meuse Shipping Inc.: Palau-flagged IRIS (IMO 9247778);Seychelles-based Backstreet Palm Corp: Vanuatu-flagged YODAN (IMO 9304356);Liberia-based Mahadev Maritime Inc: Palau-flagged MAHADEV (IMO 9571052);Marshall Islands-based Kylo Shipping Inc.: Comoros-flagged KYLO (IMO 9189146);Marshall Islands-based Yug Shipping Inc.: Comoros-flagged YUG (IMO 9288875);Marshall Islands-based Zale Shipping Inc.: Panama-flagged ZALE (IMO 9321718);Marshall Islands-based Neo Shipping Inc.: Panama-flagged ABHRA (IMO 9282041);Marshall Islands-based Xante Line Inc.: Panama-flagged XANTE (IMO 9554834).SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of the designated or blocked persons described above that are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons are blocked and must be reported to OFAC.  In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, individually or in the aggregate, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. Unless authorized by a general or specific license issued by OFAC, or exempt, OFAC’s regulations generally prohibit all transactions by U.S. persons or within (or transiting) the United States that involve any property or interests in property of blocked persons. Violations of U.S. sanctions may result in the imposition of civil or criminal penalties on U.S. and foreign persons.  OFAC may impose civil penalties for sanctions violations on a strict liability basis.  OFAC’s Economic Sanctions Enforcement Guidelines provide more information regarding OFAC’s enforcement of U.S. economic sanctions.  In addition, financial institutions and other persons may risk exposure to sanctions for engaging in certain transactions or activities involving designated or otherwise blocked persons.  The prohibitions include the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any designated or blocked person, or the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person. The power and integrity of OFAC sanctions derive not only from OFAC’s ability to designate and add persons to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List (SDN List), but also from its willingness to remove persons from the SDN List consistent with the law.  The ultimate goal of sanctions is not to punish, but to bring about a positive change in behavior.  For information concerning the process for seeking removal from an OFAC list, including the SDN List, or to submit a request, please refer to OFAC’s guidance on Filing a Petition for Removal from an OFAC List.Click here for more information on the persons designated and any property identified as blocked today.###

Today’s new Iran sanctions target a network around Hossein Shamkhani including 50 vessels associated with his shipping network. Likely the biggest set of sanctions on Iran in Trump admin, the package also includes Russia links, modest move on R shadow fleet?

home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump is Protecting the United States’ National Security and Economy by Suspending the De Minimis Exemption for Commercial Shipments Globally TAKING DECISIVE ACTION GLOBALLY TO PROTECT AMERICANS: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order suspending duty-free de minimis treatment

De minimis goes away August 29, meaning that smaller packages (sub 800$) now subject to a country’s tariff under IEEPA. De minimis shipments rose in recent years.

This means a lot more enforcement costs, and less small business shipments

www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

Lots of DPA measures
- 25% of copper scrap must stay in US increasing supply for processors/refiners.
-new export licenses coming for high quality scrap
-25% of ores, concentrate etc must be sold in US, going up to 40% in 2029. Us assumes that this will give “low cost” inputs

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Takes Action to Address the Threat to National Security from Imports of Copper STRENGTHENING AMERICA’S COPPER INDUSTRY: Today, President Donald J. Trump signed a Proclamation to address the effects of copper imports on America’s

Copper: new 50% tariff applies only to semi-finished product not ores or final. Export bans on ores/scrap
- lots of complexity! only applies to copper value, non copper content subject to whatever other tariffs apply.
- copper and auto tariffs are either/or

www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

To be clear, I dont think higher taxes paid by Americans on foreign goods is a good way to put economic pressure on Russia. Actually enforcing existing measures and closing loopholes would probably be better

And on steel seems particularly vague- promises of future quotas/joint action for EU (ditto copper and aluminum), indonesia also promised to join a global excess supply alliance. There is clearly some idea of countries hiking/maintaining their own restrictions and then maybe getting some US access

The delay in reaching deal framework with India raises q if US is considering or threatening some kind of tariff surcharge related to their Russian oil purchases. There are plenty of other India tariff related issues which may be holding up a deal also.

Fair point. Its the difference between an alert, watch and advisory.

Tsunami Advisory for B.C. - EmergencyInfoBC Tsunami - A magnitude 8.7 earthquake has occurred 80 miles (136 km) SE of Petropavlovsk, Kamchatka, Russia. A Tsunami Advisory is in effect for B.C. Tsunami Notification Zones A, B, C and D. This incl...

Seattle may not be but the west coast of Vancouver Island and other islands in between were and initially salish . Fair enough not to include Non-Us but they did mention Japan, maybe because president Trump did in his post “japan is also in the way”

www.emergencyinfobc.gov.bc.ca/event/tsunam...

IMF forecasts assume slightly softer oil than currently trading (late june levels).
- South Africa one of few EM not revised up.
- IMF seems optimistic on way fiscal stimulus will narrow global imbalances- perhaps so in EU, but seems less certain in China.

World Economic Outlook Update, July 2025: Global Economy: Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty Global growth is projected at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026, an upward revision from the April 2025 World Economic Outlook. This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective...

Updated IMF forecasts - generally revised up on less painful trade disruption than feared in April, but still a drag. Of note:
- much of EU upward revision about Irish pharma front-running
- KSA up on cut rolloff
-Russia 2025 growth seen more sluggish (1%)

www.imf.org/en/Publicati...

Big q on Trump Russia statements is not just whether he feels ok re oil market impact but if he is ready to countenance financial sanctions (primary +secondary) or if he is still focused on less credible secondary tariffs. working w europeans on enforcement could be more impact.

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As tariff revenue rises, so will ideas about what to do with it even if its a drop in bucket compared to overall deficit. The push for tariff revenues was one of many reasons I argued against using it to seed a US sovereign fund in @barrons.com last fall www.barrons.com/articles/us-...

Hawley Introduces Legislation to Send Rebate Checks to Working Americans - Josh Hawley Today, U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced the American Worker Rebate Act, legislation that would send rebate checks to working Americans following the historic revenue accrued through Preside...

Update: Hawley now has a bill pushing for tariff rebates. Seems copied after covid relief parameters and thus would be clawed back for richer Americans. Would seem there are better ways (like less tariffs) to make the policy less regressive

www.hawley.senate.gov/hawley-intro...

A Curse of Gold: Mining and Violence in Venezuela’s South | International Crisis Group Illegal gold mining is doing growing damage to southern Venezuela, its delicate ecosystem and its people. Curbing this harm is up to the government in Caracas. Foreign capitals should use whatever mea...

Report from @crisisgroup.org on how illicit mining is becoming a lifeline for Maduro govt in Venezuela’s south, and all the conflict and dangers associated. A new front for humanitarian push for conflict-free gold. Also could be an area for future sanctions

www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

Also pledge to coordinate on inbound and outbound investment, export controls and evasion of duty. Plus to take parallel process against “non-market” policies of others (China mostly?) that would extend economic security coordination.

No exclusion yet from steel aluminum and copper tariffs tho. Watch for potential quotas tho and economic security arrangements.
The metal tariffs increase US input costs borne by those producing in US and building US infrastructure.

Not much detail on NTB measures.

Fact Sheet: The United States and European Union Reach Massive Trade Deal MAKING GLOBAL HISTORY: Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump announced a trade deal with the European Union (EU), fundamentally rebalancing the economic

The US factsheet on EU framework is out- it mentions the super optimistic $750b in energy purchases by 2028 as well as 600b in investments.
Confirms EU carveout to 15% from 232 tariffs on autos and pending on semiconductors and pharma

www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

If the EU achieved a carveout for as yet undefined sectoral tariffs, then the EU trade framework could bring a little more certainty for business. Ditto with the 0-for-0 tariff areas (implicit exclusions for national security/economic security priorities). Sectoral tariffs on stronger legal grounds

EU imports of energy products - latest developments description

For those newly interested in EU energy imports, may i recommend this dataset to see scale of current/recent imports. EU imported 365b E in fossil fuels last year, most of which was oil and products (258) with rest mostly gas in gas (41) and lng (60) form

ec.europa.eu/eurostat/sta...

There seems to already be some divergence of opinion over whether the 15% applies also to all the sectoral tariffs

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