Vox Pop Labs

No worries. We appreciate the constructive feedback.

Thanks for this helpful call-out, Jonathan. We've revised the survey to remove the reference to Reuters as it clearly does not belong in this category. We are discussing whether to include a separate category of news agencies, wires, or press associations in future studies.

More than 1.6M Canadians and nearly 1.5M Australians used
@votecompass.bsky.social in the lead-up to their respective federal elections this week— a powerful sign of civic engagement across two continents.

Turns out maple syrup and democracy sausage pair pretty well. 🇨🇦🇦🇺

#cdnpoli #auspoli

Get ready, Australia! The federal election is tomorrow!

More than 1.2 million Australians have already used Vote Compass during the election campaign.

That’s more than 10 times the max capacity of the Melbourne Cricket Ground!

Think of Vote Compass as a warm-up in the nets before the match. Discover who stands out on the pitch at VoteCompass.com

The Australian Federal election is tomorrow! Discover who stands out on the pitch at VoteCompass.com.

#ausvotes #auspol

The extent to which the poll aggregators produced accurate forecasts reflects the rigour and transparency of the sampling methodologies employed by most pollsters, regardless of the actual results of any individual poll.

Polling is a difficult and complex exercise—increasingly so in the digital age where modes of communication are so varied. Overall the polls were relatively accurate in predicting the election outcome. Even the larger error rates mostly fell within margins of error.

But in terms of correctly forecasting individual seats, so far @338canada.bsky.social is in the lead at 95.1% accuracy for seats not designated as toss-ups, folllowed by @voxpoplabs.bsky.social at 91.9% and @ericgrenier.bsky.social at 90.7%.

These numbers will shift as toss-ups are factored in.

While all three major poll aggregators—The Signal included—overestimated the Liberal seat share and underestimated the Conservative seat share, The Signal is once again has the lowest error.

In terms of vote share projections, @mainstresearch.bsky.social, Liaison Strategies, and @angusreidinstitute.bsky.social came came closest to the mark—as did The Signal from @voxpoplabs.bsky.social, which had the lowest error of the poll aggregators.

MAE tells you how much polls missed by, on average. RMSE accounts for bigger misses that skew overall performance.

The lower these scores, the more accurate the prediction.

A perfect poll would have an MAE and RMSE of zero.

For each major polling firm and aggregator, we calculated the two most common measures of polling error, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE).

Canadian pollsters by and large correctly predicted that the Liberal Party would win the most votes. But while most polls had relatively similar vote share projections, even marginal differences can impact outcomes in the Canadian electoral system.

🧵 A preliminary analysis of polling performance in #Election2025:

While the final election results are not yet in, it would appear that nearly every major polling firm underestimated support for the Conservatives and overestimated support for the NDP.

#cdnpoli

Liberals set to win majority as Conservatives appear to flatline in Ontario, poll analysis suggests The latest polls on Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre, Jagmeet Singh and other federal party leaders, according to The Signal, the Star’s election forecast tool.

For more details on our projections visit www.thestar.com/interactives...

In a few hours we will have an opportunity to see how well we've all fared in trying to model the election outcome.

But it is interesting that, despite employing vastly different methodologies, we all arrived at very similar conclusions this time around.

And it's not just on seat projections. Vote share estimates are even closer.

The team at @voxpoplabs.bsky.social has been running #TheSignal in partnership with @thestar.com for a decade now—going back to the 2015 Canadian federal election.

In all that time, this is the narrowest margin we have seen between the projections from the three main #cdnpoli aggregators.

And it's not just on seat projections. Vote share estimates are even closer.

And it's not just on seat projections. Vote share estimates are even closer.

Tune into tonight's episode of @tvotoday.bsky.social with @spaikin.bsky.social to watch @voxpoplabs.bsky.social founder Clifton van der Linden discuss the art and science of election forecasting.

See how your views align with the major parties through Vote Compass You can cut through some of the election noise with Vote Compass.

We’ve landed, Australia! 🇦🇺

The #AusVotes2025 edition of Vote Compass from @voxpoplabs.bsky.social is now live on the ABC News website.

See how your views line up with the party and candidate platforms this election. 🗳️

👉 Try it now: votecompass.abc.net.au

🗳️Déjà 14 ans d’existence pour la Boussole électorale!
@yannickdufresne.bsky.social revient sur l’histoire et les coulisses de la conception de la célèbre Boussole de @voxpoplabs.bsky.social, en entrevue à « Place publique » (Radio-Canada Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean) et « Votre samedi » (AcadieRC). 1/3

Boussole électorale - Élections fédérales 2025 Découvrez votre position dans le paysage politique du Canada. Voyez où vous vous situez politiquement en comparant vos idées à celles des candidats.

Nous sommes de retour, Canada! 🇨🇦

L’édition #Élection2025 de la Boussole électorale est arrivée — découvrez comment vos opinions s’alignent avec les plateformes des partis. 🗳️

Pour une 5ᵉ élection fédérale, en partenariat avec
@iciradiocanada.bsky.social.

👉 boussole.radio-canada.ca

#polcan

Vote Compass - 2025 Canadian Federal Election Use this interactive survey designed by political scientists to calculate your alignment with the candidate platforms.

We’re back, Canada (and now on @bsky.app)! 🇨🇦

The #Election2025 edition of Vote Compass from @voxpoplabs.bsky.social offers you a personalized analysis of your alignment with the parties. 🗳️

Vote Compass returns for a 5th #cdnpoli federal election with @cbcnews.ca.

👉 Try it now: votecompass.cbc.ca

Vote Compass - 2025 Canadian Federal Election Use this interactive survey designed by political scientists to calculate your alignment with the candidate platforms.

Vox Pop Labs (@voxpoplabs.bsky.social) has launched the 2025 Canadian Federal Election Vote Compass! 🗳️🇨🇦

Vote Compass is an interactive tool designed to help you see how your views align with those of the major parties.

If you’re curious about where you stand, give it a try!

votecompass.cbc.ca

According to the @voxpoplabs.bsky.social forecasting model, odds presently favour the Liberals if #elxn45 were held today. But a lot can change before April 28.

Track the ebbs and flows of electoral fortunes with #TheSignal as it makes its fourth appearance with the @thestar.com. #cdnpoli