Bryan Knowles

Cleveland can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Tennessee d. Cleveland

NY Jets can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Miami d. NY Jets OR Buffalo d. Cincinnati AND ONE OF Houston d. Kansas City OR Jacksonville d. Indianapolis

Your Week 14 Elimination Scenario thread!

Five teams - the Browns, Jets, Falcons, Vikings and Commanders -- can be fully eliminated this week, and all but one is knocked out simply by losing. Makes the math easier, at least!

Here's the AFC:

With the Dolphins out, the AFC East race is at least easier to track.

There are now (excluding ties) 256 scenarios left in the AFC East. The Patriots win 230 of them; the Bills win the other 26. Here they are.

The only ~must~ have is beating the Patriots in Week 15.

Dallas can be eliminated from the #1 seed IF Detroit d. Dallas AND LA Rams d. Arizona AND Seattle d. Atlanta

We finish with the Cowboys, who are suddenly right back in the NFC East race thanks to the floundering Eagles. Their only elimination scenario this week is for HFA if they lose and the NFC West's best roll.

Baltimore can be eliminated from the #1 seed IF Pittsburgh d. Baltimore Baltimore can be eliminated from a top-2 seed IF Pittsburgh d. Baltimore AND EITHER Denver d. Las Vegas OR LA Chargers d. Philadelphia

It seems fairly likely that the AFC North winner will be locked into the #4 seed. But the Ravens are still kicking for any seed at the moment -- up until they maybe lose to Pittsburgh this week.

Pittsburgh can be eliminated from the #1 seed IF Baltimore d. Pittsburgh Pittsburgh can be eliminated from a top-2 seed IF Baltimore d. Pittsburgh AND Denver d. Las Vegas

It seems fairly likely that the AFC North winner will be locked into the #4 seed. But the Steelers are still kicking for any seed at the moment -- up until they maybe lose to Baltimore this week.

Cincinnati can be eliminated from the #3 seed IF Buffalo d. Cincinnati

We've done it. We've found the most boring scenario ever. A single-game elimination to get bumped from the #3 seed to maybe the #4 as a best-case scenario? Be still my beating heart, Bengals.

Kansas City can be eliminated from the #1 seed IF Houston d. Kansas City Kansas City can be eliminated from the AFC West IF Houston d. Kansas City AND EITHER Denver d. Las Vegas OR LA Chargers d. Philadelphia

Man, we don't see the Chiefs here this early usually, do we? There ~was~ a more complicated HFA elimination scenario had the Patriots lost. They didn't, so dropping one more game will knock them out of the top seed. They may have more pressing issues.

Miami can be eliminated from a top-5 seed IF NY Jets d. Miami AND EITHER LA Chargers d. Philadelphia OR BOTH Houston d. Kansas City AND Jacksonville d. Indianapolis

The Dolphins were knocked out of the AFC East race on Monday night, but they're still technically kicking in the wildcard race. A run above the worst teams in the league, and it'll take a bit to knock them further out.

Washington can be eliminated from a top-3 seed IF Minnesota d. Washington OR Philadelphia d. LA Chargers OR Tampa Bay d. New Orleans Washington can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Minnesota d. Washington OR Philadelphia d. LA Chargers

As mentioned, the Commanders-Vikings game serves as a quasi-playoff game, and the timing makes it work out, too -- the loser will be knocked out, the winner will survive. Just for Washington, that might only be until Monday when the Eagles play.

NY Jets can be eliminated from a top-6 seed IF Miami d. NY Jets OR Buffalo d. Cincinnati OR Houston d. Kansas City OR Jacksonville d. Indianapolis NY Jets can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Miami d. NY Jets OR Buffalo d. Cincinnati AND ONE OF Houston d. Kansas City OR Jacksonville d. Indianapolis

In a fairly straightforward week, the Jets have the most complicated elimination scenario, needing both a Bills and an AFC South win to knock them out if they manage to beat Miami. That's not out of the realm of possibility, so this backup scenario might matter.

Minnesota can be eliminated from a top-6 seed IF Washington d. Minnesota OR Seattle d. Atlanta AND EITHER LA Rams d. Arizona OR Green Bay d. Chicago AND Detroit d. Dallas Minnesota can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Washington d. Minnesota

The Vikings are a loss away from getting knocked out, and I'm not entirely sure how much it matters whether they start Brosmer or McCarthy at this point. Their complicated sixth-seed elimination scenario probably won't matter.

Atlanta can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Seattle d. Atlanta

Minnesota can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Washington d. Minnesota

Washington can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Minnesota d. Washington OR Philadelphia d. LA Chargers

And here's the NFC's elimination scenarios. Commanders-Vikings is kinda-sorta a playoff game, because the loser is out no matter what. So that's exciting, right?

Keep reading the thread for the rest of the scenarios...

Cleveland can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Tennessee d. Cleveland

NY Jets can be eliminated from the playoffs IF Miami d. NY Jets OR Buffalo d. Cincinnati AND ONE OF Houston d. Kansas City OR Jacksonville d. Indianapolis

Your Week 14 Elimination Scenario thread!

Five teams - the Browns, Jets, Falcons, Vikings and Commanders -- can be fully eliminated this week, and all but one is knocked out simply by losing. Makes the math easier, at least!

Here's the AFC:

With the Patriots' win, the Dolphins are officially knocked out of the AFC East race.

Yes! And Denver would have to lose all the rest of their games.

One last one for today, and I'm shocked we're here.

Excluding ties, there are 4,096 combinations left in the AFC West.

Broncos win 3,257 of them
Chargers win 812
Chiefs win the other 27

Here they are!
(LAC and DEN are must-win games now)

Excluding ties, there are 8,192 combinations left in the AFC East.

Patriots win 7,086 of them
Bills win 1,102
Dolphins win the other four. At least, for a few more hours.

Here they are!

(Win out, have Pats lose out, have Bills win no more than two more games and lose to the Jets)

At this moment, the Dolphins can still win the #1 seed in the AFC!

They'll be eliminated from that, and from the AFC East race in general, if the Patriots win tonight.

Excluding ties, there are 2,048 combinations left in the NFC South.

Buccaneers win 1,312
Panthers win 734
Falcons win... 2. And here they are!

(Win out, and have CAR/TB split with each other and otherwise lose out)

Week 14 features a quasi-playoff game -- or a Loser Leaves Town game, if you prefer.

The loser of the Minnesota Vikings v. Washington Commanders game will be eliminated from playoff contention. Stakes!

Play 16: ...But Washington makes it a game again, as Deebo Samuel puts up a huge catch and run to take the ball down to the 1!

(The failed 2PC ends up being better than the Broncos score, but not bigger than Deebo's catch, so it never takes the #1 slot)

Play 15: Not quite so long! In overtime, RJ Harvey finds the end zone and the Broncos kick the ensuing extra point to take the lead in overtime! With the #1 seed on the line, this is huge...

And the top of the draft order:

1. Titans
2. Raiders
3. Saints
4. Giants
5. Browns
6. Jets
7. Commanders
8. Cardinals

AFC Playoffs, Continued:

8. Texans
9. Steelers (over KC via conference record)
10. Chiefs
11. Dolphins
12. Bengals
13. Jets (over CLE via head-to-head)
14. Browns

That all-important Week 10 game separating the theoretical 13th and 14th seeds.

If the Playoffs Started Today!
AFC:

1. Broncos (over NE via common games)
2. Patriots
3. Jaguars (over IND via common games)
4. Ravens (over PIT via common games)
5. Chargers (over IND/BUF via conference record)
6. Colts (over BUF via conference record)
7. Bills

NE out of #1 b/c they lost to LV!

NFC Playoffs, Cont.

8. Lions
9. Cowboys
10. Panthers
11. Falcons (over MIN via head-to-head)
12. Vikings
...
14. Commanders

The Cardinals would be 13th, but they are mathematically eliminated, while Washington is not!

If the Playoffs Started Today!
NFC:

1. Bears (over LAR via conference record)
2. Rams (over SEA via head-to-head)
3. Eagles
4. Buccaneers
5. Seahawks
6. Packers
7. 49ers

Only two tiebreakers in play, but oh so very tight -- just half a game difference between the #1 Bears and #7 49ers.

The updated playoff picture after the late game of Week 13!

The Raiders join the group of the dead.

Oh, and the Jets were eliminated from the #5 seed by the same result.

With their loss, the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS have become the fifth team eliminated from the playoffs.

27 teams left for 14 slots.