Bryan Knowles

So, uh, who takes the UNC job now?

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.

We still have the Chiefs making the playoffs in 58% of our simulations if they lose to the Lions Sunday night, dropping to 2-4.

They win the division 29% of the time after a loss to the Lions.

ftnfantasy.com/dvoa-playoff...

Well, maybe a couple extra upsets over the Cowboys or Packers would help, too. But still, a playoff berth is a playoff berth.

The full scenario:
v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...

I suspect in this scenario the rest of the conference would take care of itself. The advantage of playing a hard schedule is that NYG can do their own work against teams like PHI/DAL. In this particular scenario, the Giants get in via the common games tiebreaker over Philly; that Chargers win helps!

The Giants' future schedule has an average DVOA of 5.9% compared to -11.1% for the Jets, so it's harder to find even theoretical wins for them. In this particular scenario, I have them split with the Eagles, and lose to DEN/DET/NE, trying to pick off more bottom feeders.

At least I can imagine the world in which the Giants suddenly start playing better -- putting in a first-round quarterback can have an immediate impact. Unlike the Jets, they can't get in at 4-13 (5-12 minimum), and they've got to get to 10-7 to have better than a 50/50 chance. The NFC is rough.

A hypothetical scenario showing the New York Giants getting into the playoffs at 9-8.

The New York Giants actually have lower odds than the Jets in FTN's playoff sims at just 1.1% -- the difference between the two conferences and a much harder schedule will do that. Hey, Jaxson Dart is kinda fun, though!

Let's go ahead and get THEM into the postseason too, why not.

They'd have to win the division to do it, with the Bills going on a 13-game losing streak to finish the year.

Just imagine the weekly pandemonium.

v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...

These scenarios, like all I post, are made by messing around with Playoff Predictors, which I can't recommend highly enough.

v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...

A theoretical schedule for the Jets, having them beat everyone except for the Ravens and Bills.

Mathematically, the Jets can still make the playoffs at 4-13, but it becomes more likely than not at about 9-8.

In this case, I spot the Jets losses at Baltimore and Buffalo, but have them otherwise run the table against the third-easiest remaining schedule.

Unlikely? Very. But again, 2.1%

In October, the answer to most of these weird scenarios is "get good and win a ton of games", as finding magical winner sauce is still more likely than an intricate tie at 5-12.

In this case, you find whatever it was that had New York competitive with Pittsburgh, you bottle it, and you go.

A theoretical AFC scenario which has the Jets making the playoffs at 10-7.

The New York Jets are the last winless team, as they've somehow underperformed their rock-bottom expectations. Their season is stone-cold dead. Their playoff odds are down to 2.1% on FTN.

2.1% isn't zero, though! What might that 2.1% look like?

someone who is good at the salary cap please help me budget this my team is dying

Breaking Down the 4-1 Teams, from Bucs to Lions Seven teams are 4-1, but they range from No. 1 to No. 18 in DVOA. Bryan Knowles breaks down all seven.

Today's article: a look at the 4-1 teams, from the Buccaneers to the Lions. Turns out, starting 4-1 is great for your playoff odds, but in the year of No Great Teams, there are flaws everywhere.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/breaking...

Answers:

1) Jose Cortez kicked for the 1999 Giants, 2002 Washingtons, 2005 Cowboys, and 2005 Eagles.

2) Quarterback Hunter Enis played for the 1960 Dallas Texans (now the Chiefs), the 1961 San Diego Chargers, the 1962 Broncos, and the 1962 Oakland Raiders in the then-AFL West.

I don't know! I think "Starting Quarterback: Joe Flacco", in 2025, is kind of a flashing beacon of "we're awful!"

7-5 probably gets the Bengals into the playoffs. 6-6 gives them a puncher's chance.

...I don't know; I don't see it, even with Flacco.

"Our season needs saving -- let's go get Joe Flacco!"

Color me dubious.

What a drive:

- Burn 43 seconds and a TO on two Trevor scrambles
- Gorgeous, world-class throw up the sideline
- Delay of game with a stopped clock
- PI at exactly the right time
- Trevor trips and scrambles for a TD anyway

It has never happened before.

No AFC or NFC South team lost this week.

Can't stop watching it.

I wrote a whole article about how Trevor Lawrence doesn't throw a catchable ball, but...

The Chiefs are trying to sneak their way back into playoff position, but more is at stake for the Jaguars and the South divisions.

Should Jacksonville win, the AFC/NFC South will finish a week undefeated for the first time in their histories -- 7-0, with ATL having a bye.

discord.gg/Rw47FKesa2

The South divisions get a lot of flack, but if Jaguars win tonight, this will be first week since 2002 realignment that the teams from the 2 South divisions went undefeated. (AFCS is 3-0 headed into Jags-Chiefs and NFCS went 3-0 with Falcons on a bye)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have negative DVOA despite being 4-1. You can find all the DVOA numbers updated through Week 5 here: ftnfantasy.com/stats/nfl/te...

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.

DVOA playoff odds simulation now updated, with the Detroit Lions as our new Super Bowl favorites.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/dvoa-pla...

AFC Playoffs, Cont.

8. Chiefs
9. Bengals (over HOU via SoV)
10. Texans
11. Raiders (over BAL/MIA via conf)
12. Ravens (over CLE via H2H; over TEN via conf; over MIA via SoV)
13. Dolphins over (CLE/TEN via conf)
14. Browns (over TEN via SoV)
15. Titans
16. Jets

If the Playoffs Started Today!
AFC:

1. Colts (over BUF via conf)
2. Bills
3. Steelers
4. Chargers (over DEN via head-to-head)
5. Jaguars
6. Broncos (over NE via strength of schedule)
7. Patriots