Paul Bernal

I think they’ll flail about for the foreseeable future, not knowing what to do.

Hang on, wasn’t it supposed to be over in four weeks, like yesterday?

Some good news re the progress of the Elections Bill - the Electoral Commission's independence to be restored.

Well, fiery mostly. 🙂

What really leaps out from the full piece is how lacking in any interest in policy it is, and how all the reading that has shaped it is visibly just 'social media scrolling':

The outright rejection of any sense of ‘Labour values’ suggests no values at all. Historically, Labour has always cared about ‘values’.

Whatever else this is from Paul Ovenden, demanding Labour MPs back Mahmood’s immigration crackdown, it is the most over-written, pretentious thing I’ve seen for some time.

Political plainsong? And they want to connect to ordinary people?

Yes, we had our first Tory for ages in north Cambridge. Reform could take it from them.

Labour need to take a long, hard look at themselves.

Oh yes

Yes, they're nuts

Ah, I didn't know the BBC had covered it. Thanks!

If Cambridge does go Green in the next GE - certainly a possibility - that will mean almost the whole spectrum has been covered in Cambridge in my lifetime. We've had Tory, Lib Dem and Labour MPs. Green might well be next.

And no, Reform don't stand any chance at all. We're not like that.

How the prophecy of Armageddon became a political force in the US The new documentary Praying for Armageddon looks at the increasing influence of evangelical Christians in the US, and their dangerous fusion of religious fundamentalism and political powerrelig

For those in the UK and Europe that were perplexed by that Armageddon story, the death cult stuff has been pretty big in the US for a while. See e.g. www.dazeddigital.com/film-tv/arti...

Probably here too, though Cambridge will be a very interesting constituency: the local elections could tell us a lot. Currently Labour, but I suspect will be a Lib Dem/Green marginal in the GE.

My best guess is that by seeming angry and resentful, Reform will reduce their attraction to the wavering former Tories - not the extreme racists. It's not a winning look.

Plaid were sectarian in Caerphilly as well. I heard they were printing leaflets in Welsh

Reform lost the British-born vote (by about 1500) as well as the Commonwealth voters (by about 1500) in Gorton and Denton - the foreign-born vote including naturalised British citizens by maybe 3000.

They got 29% by focusing their campaign in just one-third of a 60% white seat

Reform are refusing to recognise "we are not yet sufficiently trusted on foundations of reputation on race + Britishness" within minority groups nor by many white voters on division/racism so we risk hitting a 1/3 ceiling if seen as pro-Trump polarisers. So they sound like bad losers not democrats

Reform's mixed + negative reputation on racism + xenophobia + Trumpian populist division was a barrier with many (but not all) Muslim + non-Muslim Asian voters + naturalised British citizens in Greater Manc + with many (but not all) under 40s, students, graduates + ex-Labour voters + Welsh people

Reform being such bad losers illuminates why half of voters want to stop Reform winning.

Reform: favourable 32% unfavourable 47%
Farage: approve 27%, disapprove 64%

generally not racist 38% generally racist 45% (white voters)
generally not racist 16% generally racist 70% (minorities)

It seems Reform need to tell themselves & their voters a clearly false story about foreigners stealing the election from them, so as not to acknowledge the fact that Reform's "people's army" is unpopular: that a third of people like and that most people want to see defeated at the ballot box

Reform are in denial about why they lost by 12% in Gorton & Denton (60% white, 80% UK-born) after losing by 11% in Caerphilly (98% white, 98% UK-born) to Plaid Cyrmu

Both seats unusual in seeing more people vote than at last Welsh Senedd/last GE: more voters turned out to stop Reform than supoort

How the prophecy of Armageddon became a political force in the US The new documentary Praying for Armageddon looks at the increasing influence of evangelical Christians in the US, and their dangerous fusion of religious fundamentalism and political powerrelig

This might help explain... www.dazeddigital.com/film-tv/arti...

A tree in Norwich.... not a war in the desert...

Yeah, UAE is probably more sandy, and a little more risky right now

An old oak

Another spectacular morning… #UEA

Oh yes

I've spent the last hour or so replying to the questions on this "consultation" with my focus on trying to make it clear that what government and companies are doing is making it harder for children to stay safe - and in some cases, make their lives harder.