Christopher Carman

Reflections on 26 years of devolution in the Scottish Parliament David McGill, Clerk and Chief Executive of the Scottish Parliament reflects on its past.

4 Nov, 6PM Dewar Memorial Lecture @uofglasgow.bsky.social will be delivered by David McGill, Clerk & CEO of the @parliament.scot. David will reflect on the Parliament's past 26 years - and how it will face future challenges. Free and open to the public. tix here: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/reflection...

With President Donald John Trump announcing the dates for his upcoming trip to #Scotland, we at @scotvoting.bsky.social look at how popular #POTUS is in Scotland. Turns out DJT might find the Scottish summer to be a bit chilly, and that isn't just the weather!

Seen the headlines in today's Scottish papers? Join
@scotvoting.bsky.social team TONIGHT 6pm @uofglasgow.bsky.social for an analysis of the the state Scottish electoral politics One Year Out from the 2026 Holyrood elections. Boyd Orr Bldg in-person and on-line
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/one-year-o...

Looking for something to do at 17:30 Friday afternoon at the @scottishlabour.bsky.social conference? @scotvoting.bsky.social Scottish Election Study team will be holding a fringe event looking at our data on Scottish Labour Voters (past & future). W/ @ailsahenderson.bsky.social & Fraser McMillan

A poster with a background of a world map with countries made up of different currencies. Overlaid text in white reads: 'Stevenson Trust for Citizenship presents: Geopolitics and 'Global economic shocks: the prospects for the world economy' Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli.' The event details are listed as 'Bute Hall, Gilbert Scott Building, Tuesday 4th March 6 - 7:30 pm.' The University of Glasgow logo is in the top left corner, and the Twitter handle '@UofGSocSci' appears in the bottom left corner.

The next Stevenson Trust lecture features Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social) on how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy. 🌎

Taking place on 4 March and open to all.

Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt

Stevenson Trust for Citizenship event post with the title Geopolitics and Global economic shocks: the prospects for the world economy Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli, Bute hall, Gilbert Scott Building, Tuesday 4th March 6- 7.30 pm

📢Join us for the next Stevenson Trust lecture with Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli (@uofgvc.bsky.social) and Christopher Carman (@cjcarman.bsky.social).

They will explore how rising geopolitical tensions could shape the global economy over the next 2-3 years.

Register now: tinyurl.com/2knys4wt.

We are very excited to be hosting this event @uofglasgow.bsky.social on 10 Feb, 6pm, recognising 25 years of achievements by the Scottish Youth Parliament @officialsyp.bsky.social

Pls join us - free & open to all members of the public, both young and not-so-young

Register here: lnkd.in/e-9aQxaV

Screenshot of the first page of the paper. Title: Income inequality and the erosion of democracy in the twenty-first century Authors: Eli G. Rau and Susan Stokes Significance: In the 21st century, democracy is more often threatened by elected presidents and prime ministers than by military coup-makers. What are the causes of this rise in democratic erosion? Cross-national statistical analysis points toward one robust finding: The more unequal income distribution is in a democracy, the more at risk it is of electing a power-aggrandizing and norm-shredding head of government. Even wealthy and longstanding democracies, like the United States, are vulnerable if they are highly unequal (though national wealth might provide some resiliency). Therefore, policies that improve income equality may have the political effect of strengthening democratic systems. Abstract: Among the most pressing problems societies face today are economic inequality and the erosion of democratic norms and institutions. In fact the two problems—inequality and democratic erosion—are linked. In a large cross-national statistical study of risk factors for democratic erosion, we establish that economic inequality is one of the strongest predictors of where and when democracy erodes. Even wealthy and longstanding democracies are vulnerable if they are highly unequal (though national wealth might provide some resiliency). The association between inequality and risk of democratic backsliding is robust, and holds under different measures and structures of both income inequality and wealth inequality. The association is unlikely to be a case of reverse causation. For concerned citizens seeking to understand why so many democracies are eroding and how to stop this process, our study indicates that policies for ameliorating inequality are a promising path forward.

This is an interesting study on the relationship between economic inequality and democratic erosion:
www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Overall, certainly something worth pondering.

Chris Carmen and Natasha Lindstaedt speaking at the Stevenson trust lecture The US election and what to expect in the next 4 years.

A fascinating discussion from @cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt from tonight's Stevenson Trust lecture.

They discussed Trumps campaign and what the next four years of his presidency may mean for the US and the rest of the world

Poster for the January 15th Stevenson Trust lecture The US elections and what to expect in the next 4 years.

The next Stevenson Trust Lecture takes place this Wednesday from 6- 7:30 on the US Election.

@cjcarman.bsky.social and Natasha Lindstaedt will discuss Trump's Campaign and what can be expected over the next 4 years.

Don't miss out register here: tinyurl.com/mr2rvsrp.

Interested in Scottish voting data?

Follow Scottish Election Study team at account below

Or individually:
@ailsahenderson.bsky.social
@robjohns75.bsky.social
@cjcarman.bsky.social
@jaclarner.bsky.social
@chanret.bsky.social
@martamiori.bsky.social
(Fraser's arriving soon)

has anyone told RFKJr where his soon-to-be boss prefers to dine? (and cook french fries)

OPINION TODAY
Trump's new administration and the election's aftermath | What Trump supporters believe and expect | How Resilient Is the Emerging Trump Coalition? | Drop in Death Penalty Support Led by Younger Generations | The 2026 race for CA governor ... & more: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/241114

we know that partisanship now drives economic and social policy perceptions in the US - but this graph is striking. I just told a class that right after Trump's inauguration we'd see a shift in economic evaluations... it only took days after the election! graph frm www.nytimes.com/2024/11/13/b...

Trump does.

Last week at my @UofGlasgow @StevensonTrust lecture on the US POTUS election I said/joked I was waiting for a news report saying that the Amish in PA were going to be the crucial voting group in the state. #nailedit #LancasterPA #youknowyouarefromLancasterwhen

Interesting that even with all the Trump supporting “whales” who have thrown money into the various “election markets”, Trump has dropped 10 pts in Polymarket in this past week

“A republic, if you can keep it.”

Benjamin Franklin’s response to the question, “Well Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?” on the day the Constitutional Convention delegates signed their draft.

The Army of Election Officials Ready To Reject The Vote Podcast Episode · The Daily · 01/11/2024 · 45m

Counties already denying certification of elections across the US. THIS is rather concerning and points to the US election system ending up in uncharted territory. #electiondenialism #USelection2024 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...

The US Presidential Election: Should we just flip a coin? Let's discuss the state of the contest and what we might expect.

Pls join us on 29 Oct, 6PM in @uofglasow KELVIN GALLERY (in the Gilbert Scott Bldg) for discussion of the upcoming US Elections with @UofGSPS's @cjcarman.bsky.social. What are polls telling us? What can we expect in the last week before the election? register: www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/the-us-pre...

As what constitutes “fascism” seems to be a topic of conversation at the moment, let’s look at the definition of the term in the Oxford Dictionary of Politics (2009, 3rd ed pg193). #fascist #fascism #polisci #2024

Interesting - surprising? - % of Dems w/the “they are evil” view (48%). Higher than the Reps who thought Biden won. Yes, certainly not as bad as the Rep election denying crowd but I suspect higher than some might guess.

The long and short of all this is that elevated indy support sustained the SNP long after 2014, powering them to a series of victories at all levels of government.

But in the last couple of years their grip on pro-indy voters has loosened significantly.

We also know it changed people's constitutional preferences, with young people in particular much more supportive than before - although they were always the group most favourably disposed to "devo max". The binary choice presented in 2014 forced people to pick a side.

It similarly altered how people felt about Scotland, believing it had become a more engaged political space. Yes voters were initially more convinced of this, but No voters soon changed their minds.

This shows the % of voters saying the indyref made Scotland more involved ✍️

We also know that the referendum changed how people engaged with politics. A lot of people joined the pro-indy parties after the referendum. At peak, one in 24 Scots belonged to a political party vs one in 125 in the UK as a whole 🪧⬇️

Meanwhile, changes in Conservative support were more gradual.

This graph shows the share of Labour voters switching to the Conservatives at each general election in the 2010s, with the party's effort to become the voice of No supporters paying off north of the border in 2017 🔵

The referendum pushed voters out to the poles of the constitutional debate.

This outstanding graph by @jaclarner.bsky.social shows this happened immediately following the indyref vote, with voters moving from Labour to SNP en masse 😯