Ben Casselman

A nice piece on algorithmic pricing worth your time.

A question I got frequently when I led BLS was why the agency went into stores and didn’t just collect prices online. My answer, “prices online are often different than in the store, so we do both” often surprised people.

Quits rate dropped sharply in October, which could be noise, but is certainly consistent with a labor market where workers don't feel much confidence in their ability to find another job.

The impact of the DOGE cuts showed up in September, but mostly not as "layoffs" but rather voluntary quits and "other separations" (which includes retirements).

On the other hand, job openings seem to have stabilized at roughly their 2019 levels.

The layoff rate in October rose to its highest level in more than a year. Layoffs are still low by historical standards, but are gradually edging upward.

The hires rate ticked up in September, down in October. But the trend seems to be down again after having stabilized somewhat earlier this year. #NumbersDay

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - 2025 M10 Results

Today's #JOLTS report gives our first official look at the labor market in October.
Short version: Not that different from August, but some signs of further weakening. #NumbersDay
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...

I wondered the same. I imagine they would want to distinguish between the price of the goods themselves and the price of the service of having your groceries picked and delivered. But to the extent prices vary from customer to customer, it seems that would present a real measurement challenge.

Same Product, Same Store, but on Instacart, Prices Might Differ

Same product. Same store. Same time. But on Instacart, different customers may see different prices.
My story on a fascinating new experiment from @groundwork.bsky.social & @consumerreports.org and how the idea of a single price is breaking down in the digital age:
www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/b...

You know what's not a great way to advertise trinkets commemorating my dead dad? A subject line advertising them as "A great gift for my dad."

The AEA has imposed a lifetime ban on Lawrence H. Summers’ membership and participation in AEA activities. See the full statement here. www.aeaweb.org/news/aea-sta...

As someone whose writing benefits from excellent professional editing, I think everyone needs an editor. That said, I think Joey does a great job serving his particular audience (which includes those of us whose job it is to boil things down further for a more general audience).

America is Flying Blind on Immigration Nobody Knows How Many Immigrant Workers Have Left the US Amidst Trump's Mass Deportations. That's Incredibly Bad.

Excellent piece from the always-excellent @josephpolitano.bsky.social on why no one should be citing Current Population Data on immigration levels, and why it's a problem that we don't have better data on this crucial question. #EconSky
www.apricitas.io/p/america-is...

Challenger Bread Pan® Bake better bread in your home oven today! Made for Bakers, by Bakers, this revolutionary cast iron vessel will level up your baking.

Yes, or actually recently switched to this bread pan: challengerbreadware.com/product/the-...
Same idea though.

This one is about 70% white (mostly King Arthur AP, some KA bread flour). Unusual for me since I usually do much more whole wheat/spelt/rye but one of these loaves is for stuffing.

Thanksgiving prep underway! #BreadSky

US Inflation Traders to Use Untested Fallbacks for Missing CPI The $7 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation will employ fallback mechanisms for the first time after the longest government shutdown in history derailed economic data collection.

For Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, monthly CPI values are used to interpolate daily index ratios that determine accrued interest

Without CPI value, regulations for TIPS call for a synthetic number “based on last available 12-mo change in CPI”

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

For the record, there is no data to release -- it wasn't collected because of the shutdown. BLS says it will release the data that it was able to collect (because it didn't come from survey-based sources), but cannot conduct the survey retroactively.

They'll publish an index value, and a 12-month change. We can then all calculate two-month change, or two-month change at a monthly rate, or whatever seems best.

Shoutout to everyone who's going to get to spend Thanksgiving fixing their code so it doesn't break when it hits an NA for October.

Sorry, that was the Morning newsletter, not the Daily.

A Trump Recession?

We certainly aren't avoiding the term "recession."
Here, for example, is an episode of the "Daily" -- our flagship podcast -- with the headline, "A Trump Recession?"
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/b...
Or a video that ran at the top of our homepage: www.nytimes.com/video/us/pol...

Mainstream economic forecasts were clearly too pessimistic in 2022-23, and our coverage reflected that pessimism. Looking back, I think we did an ok job reflecting the uncertainty and responding to the stronger data, but we certainly weren't perfect, and we should learn from that experience.

Details here look pretty much as expected. They'll publish October index values for the items that aren't based on survey data (such as auto prices, which come from a third-party vendor). But BLS says it can't collect survey data retroactively. #EconSky

Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations Revised news release dates following the 2025 lapse in appropriations

BREAKING: BLS says it will not publish an October CPI. November CPI will be delayed to Dec. 18, meaning too late for the FOMC meeting the previous week. #NumbersDay #EconSky
www.bls.gov/bls/2025-lap...

Job Gains Disguise Weakness Beyond Service Industries

Our coverage of yesterday's report was similarly nuanced, highlighting the stronger-than-expected job growth but also the rising unemployment rate and the signs of underlying weakness. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/20/b...

Against the Odds, the U.S. Economy Chugs Along, as Fears Linger (Published 2023)

In June 2023, 209k was, literally, a cooldown -- from 300k the month before. I'd argue our story painted a balanced picture, noting both the slowdown and the resilience.
www.nytimes.com/2023/07/07/b...

If only.

119k is the best number since April and more than 2x forecasts. And it comes at a time when economists think job growth has to slow because of the smaller labor force.
We're being sure to emphasize the increase in unemployment as well. But the payroll figure itself was solid in the current context.

First, ADP only measures private. So it's -32k vs +97k.
Second, ADP is large, but it isn't fully representative of the U.S. economy. They try to account for that through weighting, but that only gets you so far.
Third, the estimates differ month-to-month, but they line up pretty well over time.