Ben Casselman

Opinion | What to Do When the President Acts Like a Five-Year-Old?

And also this from the Nobel laureate economist (and Yellen’s husband) George Akerlof: www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/o...

Trump’s Efforts to Control Information Echo an Authoritarian Playbook

And don't miss this related piece from @peterbakernyt.bsky.social about the authoritarian echoes of what he calls Trump's "war on facts":
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/u...

Trump Fired America’s Economic Data Collector. History Shows the Perils.

Much more in the story, including more on some of the international parallels here.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...

“If society cannot see itself clearly, then it cannot identify its problems," Georgiou said. "If it cannot identify its problems, then it cannot find the right solutions. It cannot find the right persons to solve these problems.”

Key point from Andreas Georgiou, who was criminally prosecuted for insisting on reporting accurate deficit figures when he was head of Greece's statistical agency: Reliable data is essential for democracy.

Janet Yellen, not a person prone to hyperbole, put it this way: “This is the kind of thing you would only expect to see in a banana republic."

Trump Fired America’s Economic Data Collector. History Shows the Perils.

President Trump didn't like the jobs numbers, so he fired the person responsible for producing them.
It's a move that has been tried before, by leaders of countries from Argentina to Greece to the Soviet Union. It rarely ends well.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b... #EconSky

Trump Fired America’s Economic Data Collector. History Shows the Perils.

Trump Fired America’s Economic Data Collector. History Shows the Perils.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...

Good roundup of the reactions.

For six months, I've said that threats to economic data have been more collateral damage than intentional harm.

No longer.

Firing the head of the BLS is five-alarm intentional harm to the integrity of US economic data and the entire statistical system.

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

Trump, Claiming Weak Jobs Numbers Were ‘Rigged,’ Fires Labor Official

For months, people have been asking me whether I still trusted gov’t data. My answer was always the same: The stats agencies faced longstanding challenges, some of which Trump was making worse. But there was no sign of political meddling.
I can’t say that anymore.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...

New facts indeed. Reporting now.

Health care and social assistance accounted for essentially all job growth in July, adding more than 73,000 jobs. If it hadn't been for that sector, employment would have fallen slightly.

May and June revised down by combined 258,000. That's a very significant sign of weakening.

Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M06 Results

U.S. employers added 73,000 jobs in July and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2 percent.
Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...
Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/07... #NumbersDay

This is all consistent with my own reporting, which I discussed yesterday in this thread: bsky.app/profile/benc...

But, crucially: "Despite our grave concerns about what we have witnessed through July 2025—including data that are no longer collected and products that are no longer being published—at present we are confident that data users can trust the federal statistics that are still being released."

"Loss of staff means the loss of priceless institutional knowledge and hinders statistical agencies’ ability to fulfill their legal obligations."

From the new report: "Since January 2025, Executive Branch initiatives have resulted in cut or frozen contracts for statistical services and significant decreases in statistical staff through layoffs and aggressively incentivizing employees to leave federal service."

The Nation's Data at Risk - Meeting American's Information Needs for the 21st Century The American Statistical Association is the world’s largest community of statisticians, the “Big Tent for Statistics.

Here's the original report: www.amstat.org/policy-and-a...
And my story at the time: www.nytimes.com/2024/07/09/b...
And here's the Year 2 update: www.amstat.org/docs/default...

A year ago, @amstatnews.bsky.social released a major report arguing that our federal statistical system was "at risk" due to falling response rates, shrinking budgets and the potential for political interference.
Today, they released an update finding that those risks have only grown. #EconSky

Data *quality* is a serious concern but we shouldn't jump to the conclusion of manipulation without evidence.

Sources:
bsky.app/profile/benc...
www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...
www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
www.wsj.com/economy/cpi-...
bsky.app/profile/benc...

Indeed!

I'm not sure that contention is supported by my reporting. But I'm continuing to report.

There's no evidence anyone has tried to manipulate the data, change how it is calculated, etc. The budget cuts are obviously concerning, but I think it's important to be clear about what is and isn't happening.

I am making the stronger claim. I have been in touch with a substantial number of longtime staffers at all levels of these agencies, people I know and trust. Many have concerns about where things might go, but all say that so far there has been no interference.

I am making the stronger claim. I have been in touch with a substantial number of longtime staffers at all levels of these agencies, people I know and trust. Many have concerns about where things might go, but all say that so far there has been no interference.

I am in regular contact with career staffers inside the BLS and other statistical agencies, as well as with people who have recently left. But I'm always looking to talk to more people. Have information you think I should know? Reach out on Signal:
signal.me#eu/4LIg1kAOm...

I still trust the figures coming out of these agencies. But I do expect to see increased volatility and larger revisions, especially in the smaller sub-indexes. All of which will make it harder to get a clear read on the state of the economy.