Joe Thorndike

Remember When the Democrats Lost the Election Because People Hate Inflation? The New York Times Doesn’t As usual, the New York Times gets things exactly wrong in a piece headlined “Trump’s Tariffs are Making Money.

The New York Times told us the Democrats lost the last election because people hate inflation, but now they are telling us that they can't score political points by promising to bring prices down by getting rid of the Trump tariffs substack.com/home/post/p-...

A good point. And pretty much the same argument that made income taxes popular in the late 19th and early 20th century.

Did anyone seriously think that corporate America would just eat the tariffs forever? That's not how companies work. (Or tariffs, FWIW.)
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/b...

They were hard to quit in the late 19th/early 20th century too. And yet they managed. (They were that unpopular and ultimately inadequate too)

And … we’ve incrementally quit revenue-producing corporate income taxes over a few decades, embracing the idea that cuts will encourage growth (not saying it’s true, just saying). Presumably we could justify cuts to revenue-producing tariffs with similar growth arguments.

Plus, “analysts expect the tariffs to weigh on the performance of the economy overall, which in turn could reduce the amount of traditional income tax revenue the government collects every year.”

So maybe easier to quit. Maybe tariff cuts will even pay for themselves!

Trump’s Tariffs Are Making Money. That May Make Them Hard to Quit.

Tariffs were hard to quit in the late 19th and early 20th century, too. And yet they managed.

www.nytimes.com/2025/08/03/b...

These 40 Jobs May Be Replaced by AI. These 40 Probably Won't A new Microsoft report ranks 80 professions by their risk of being replaced by AI tools. Microsoft study identified jobs most, and least affected by AI.

These doom scenario predictions about AI would be more convincing if they weren’t so obviously designed as clickbait.

www.inc.com/bruce-crumle...

Most regular folks hate bureaucracy but they also like (or at least depend on) institutions, even if they don’t know it.

My only question is why these points don’t get made in most other news coverage. (This goes for pretty much all the credulous coverage of Trump’s announced deals.)

“The move to reduce these so-called hallucinations is seen as crucial to increase the use of AI tools across industries such as law and health, which require accurate information…”

I’m curious about the industries where accuracy is irrelevant.

Grim Polls for the GOP Budget Bill | Tax Notes Joseph J. Thorndike examines the results of several polls that report voter support of and opposition to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The 2017 tax bill was bad for Republican politicians. The 2025 law could easily be worse.

www.taxnotes.com/featured-ana...

Not sure I buy these predictions, but if they’re even partly right, this will be a transformative political event.

CEOs Start Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: AI Will Wipe Out Jobs - The Wall Street Journal

Internal revenue commissioner wearing a bathing cap in 1945.

Internal Revenue Commissioner Joseph D. Nunan, Jr. on vacation in Miami Beach, c. 1945.

Despite his penchant for nifty bathing caps, Nunan is better remembered as the only commissioner to be convicted for tax evasion.

Photo courtesy of the Truman Library:
www.trumanlibrary.gov/photograph-r...

This is an old point, not a new one. In fact, fiscal hawks have been trying to manufacture crises since the Reagan administration (Gramm-Rudman etc)

Trump’s Trade Fight Is Just Getting Warmed Up If courts strike down his Liberation Day tariffs, he has other options to implement import taxes.

My new Capitolism @thedispatchmedia.bsky.social‬ celebrates last week's BIG court rulings against the Trump "emergency" tariffs but explains why Congress still needs to do its job & fix US tariff laws:

"Trump’s Trade Fight Is Just Getting Warmed Up" thedispatch.com/newsletter/c...

Pat Buchanan Was Trump Before Trump — And a Master of Antitax Politics
www.taxnotes.com/tax-history-...

Why Americans love taxing the rich Or at least talking about it.

A disappointing story from Marketplace on the history and politics of taxing the rich. Lots of loose talk about rates, effectively conflating marginal/average/effective. Some breezy,
basically ok snippets of history. But the rate discussions end up being misleading.

WWRPD? (What Would Randolph Paul Do?)

"Revenge” taxes: Risks and uncertainties (proposed section 899) This piece focuses on a new proposed section of the tax code (section 899) in the House-passed reconciliation bill. Section 899 would raise tax rates on significant categories of US-source income paid...

Thread:

New from @taxlawcenter.org: we get in the weeds (footnotes) and also big picture on the section 899 "revenge"/retaliation tax in the House bill that's under active consideration in the Senate.

taxlawcenter.org/work/revenge...

Historical Perspective -- Profiles in Tax History: Randolph E. Paul | Tax Notes Tax Notes historian Joe Thorndike looks back at the career and times of Randolph E. Paul, Treasury general counsel during World War II.

My own take on Randolph Paul www.taxnotes.com/tax-history-...

History

Every time I read another story about the gradual dissolution of Paul Weiss, I wonder what the great Randolph Paul — a giant of the 20th century tax bar — would say about his disappearing legacy.

www.paulweiss.com/about-the-fi...

How Obama Creates Uncertainty and Paralyzes Growth Obama should ask himself: "Would I start or expand a business without knowing what regulations or taxes government will impose next year?"

reason.com/2012/06/07/h...

I’m old enough to remember when people thought income tax uncertainty was a big problem for business. Who knew tariff uncertainty would be so much more exciting!

The 1973 Congressional Hearings That Reshaped Tax Privacy Protections | Tax Notes Joseph J. Thorndike concludes his examination of how President Richard Nixon’s executive orders permitting the Agriculture Department to access farmers’ tax returns — which were ultimately revoked — l...

If you like keeping your tax returns private, you can thank these hearings

Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight Bookings plunge as importers hold off on shipping goods to America in hope of Beijing-Washington deal

So this is maybe bad too?

This, too, seems bad.

Trump tariffs stoke fears of shortages and price hikes Trump's trade war has sent the nation's retailers into scramble mode.

Seems bad

www.axios.com/2025/04/26/t...

Trade war fallout: Cancellations of Chinese freight ships begin as bookings plummet Canceled freight vessel sailings from China are up and will ripple through the supply chain as the trade war impact on the global economy intensifies.

I don’t know anything about shipping. But it sure seems like a problem might be headed our way.

www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/...

CBP says latest tariffs have generated $500 million, well below Trump's estimate Trump has repeatedly said the United States is taking in $2 billion per day from tariffs.

Might still need those income taxes for a while yet.

www.cnbc.com/2025/04/16/u...