MarketScalpel

$DX Dollar Idx - nope, a couple of wrinkles have blindsided me here most intuitively the old regular cyan cyclical structure completely broke dn following the lime low, accompanied by general cyclical chaos as newsnoise dominated action. Upside likely v nrly complete now tho; test of Q4 lows next 😱

2/ Banks LT - Note how the recent post C19 bull mkt has likely suffered a key technical failure at old broken SRS support subsequently turned resistance. Looks to me like a test and likely failure of the bottom of the recent range now on the cards

Asset Mgmt - yep, still leading down both internally in Fins the the broad mkt, Fri setting a fresh SRS ATL (post '04 hist start), exiting the C19 sideways consolidation with volume still exceptionally active, and the fairly stable LT lime 4yr cycle not due to bottom until ~'27 :-o

2/...while dnside leaders late Jan thru Feb S/W and IT Svcs were wkly top 2 subsectors, with dispersion trades seemingly broadly imploding and the $VIX closing at a post Apr sell-off high. Fri gap fill attempt early doors likely but consolidation pattern imv prolly complete. Dnside shld open up soon

Rotation - yep, Tue's lows held on the Fri lower volume plunge, but vicious rotation if anything intensifying under the idx hood, with a slew of recent leaders incl Cons Staples, Semis Equip, and associated AI complex areas like Electricals and Constr Equip/Mats, Ind Metals/PMs taken out and shot 1/

Financials - yep, leading dn again and seemingly breaking key support all over the map :-o

subsector leaderboard fyi

Housing Complex/Ponzis - yep, whipsaw at resistance and Durables & Furnish rn wkly bot 2 subsectors, with Bubblers and Mortgage additionally in the bot 10, but an IT low in Ponzies probably fast approaching/$ZN IT low expected early next wk +/- a few days that should provide some relief

Another huge volume/block trade day/idx options day Thu. Expect a long-IT low around turn of the mnth but Mon's lows prolly a shorter cycle low in many groups; 2 cycles then likely juxtaposed rn pulling in different directions; duration of shorter cycle sideways-up a gauge of force on later decline

Time capsule message from the past to the future??!!

Overall volume pulled back a tad Wed with the bulk concentrated in Energy SRS-1.4% (led dn by Equip & Svcs and Producers) but block trades at a 7m high; playahs buying the dip with the ST/IT trend down or selling to BTFD bagholders? We're about to find out! :-o

Let's see what happens. I have short cycles supportive in $NVDA maybe for another wk or so within the context of the wider range from late Nov. If it reverses in the next few days that range it toast -- to the downside!

Correction: multiwitching of course week after next :-o

Subsector leaderboard - Major cracks in IT upside leadership in widely touted AI boom sensitive Inds esp Electrical Equip, Constr Mats/Equip, Semis and Mats providing some arbitrage related relief elsewhere. $NVDA cld still fill Tue am gap/take mkt with it, but def firepower rapidly expending imv!

$VIX:

yep, downside range penetration on v heavy equities volume, block trades and combined $PCCI idx options 5th biggest tally in history keeping the $PCCI Put/Call ratio <1x after a morning smackdn as significant defensive munitions deployed ahead of next wk's big qtrly expiry with $VIX testing Q4 highs

Battle royale in the $ES futures on rel heavy volume that has already taken the mid Dec low extending the downtrend/breakdown. Way i read the pattern another rally attempt is quite likely, but expect that to fail below yesterday's high 😱😱🍿🍿

$CL US US WTI Oil - Believe i flagged the turn in the long-IT cyan cycle on Xitter, and we still appear to have valid lower degree orange sub-cycles suggesting no major structural shockwaves -- as yet! Right translation on last orange=bullish and now nearing midpoint of next->see where high lands??

Dutch TTF Natural Gas - Chart doing the rounds on Xitter somewhat clickbaity giving at best only a very partial picture. Let's see if the current flagpole takes out the high and eliminates the LT post UKR/Nordstream disruption range :

$SPX Cash-Rally off futures support in the US premarket also manifested in the cash and the rally off the lows at the open not only filled the day's gap, but also just about Fri's. Am seeing a potentially very bearish read on the pattern tho and futs now heading back for another nibble at support

This is in part due to energy savings (bulbs etc!) and the old dominance of coal-fired power generation, that is as based-load power generally on all the time, whereas the switch to gas enabled much closer demand following. De-industrialisation also a factor tho!

Boyz trying to make the test of support bounce happen

"....You may however qualify for a position on the Trump II National Security Council (terms and conditions apply, last job you'll ever hold outside the Heritage Foundation, Fox News etc)"

2/ LT - Still looks v good on a LT relative strength basis:

$SSEC Shanghai Comp - Interestingly up 0.5% overnight testing the early Jan +10yr highs. The move does look an ABC rich terminal tho, and may well be cooked on a whipsaw move just slightly above a devilish post #GFC triangle type LT consolidation

No. Akrotiri is sovereign British territory.

#ES S&P 500 emini - yep, no dislocation Feb expiry but overnight futures sesh already taken out mid Feb low with a test of the bottom of the Q4-> range a racing certainty by the NY cash open. A break below that support implies elevated risk of hedges coming unglued with $VIX vol still nr highs 😱

News 24 just had a professor from SOAS on making that very point 5 minutes ago, with the presenter going on to female on female mansplain that the nature of the killing is what could lead to regional catastrophe!

$MSFT wkly vs ROCs/ Software - Not much talk of the >30% haircut in $MSFT past 4 mnths but worth keeping an eye on sitting at key support at the 200wk EMA, as the wider Software parent subsector attempts to bounce off last line of support thru last wk's lows:

subsector leaderboard: