MarketScalpel

Boyz trying to make the test of support bounce happen

"....You may however qualify for a position on the Trump II National Security Council (terms and conditions apply, last job you'll ever hold outside the Heritage Foundation, Fox News etc)"

2/ LT - Still looks v good on a LT relative strength basis:

$SSEC Shanghai Comp - Interestingly up 0.5% overnight testing the early Jan +10yr highs. The move does look an ABC rich terminal tho, and may well be cooked on a whipsaw move just slightly above a devilish post #GFC triangle type LT consolidation

No. Akrotiri is sovereign British territory.

#ES S&P 500 emini - yep, no dislocation Feb expiry but overnight futures sesh already taken out mid Feb low with a test of the bottom of the Q4-> range a racing certainty by the NY cash open. A break below that support implies elevated risk of hedges coming unglued with $VIX vol still nr highs 😱

News 24 just had a professor from SOAS on making that very point 5 minutes ago, with the presenter going on to female on female mansplain that the nature of the killing is what could lead to regional catastrophe!

$MSFT wkly vs ROCs/ Software - Not much talk of the >30% haircut in $MSFT past 4 mnths but worth keeping an eye on sitting at key support at the 200wk EMA, as the wider Software parent subsector attempts to bounce off last line of support thru last wk's lows:

subsector leaderboard:

CHF Wkly - Well defined LT lime cycle should be nr a low with px some uncertainty about whether the recent range was a sideways down affair denoting uber bullish action consolidating just below the ATH or whether it may instead have inverted where a low becomes a high. Either case 15yr range= 🚀🚀😱

S$P1500 Cons Staples - helluva move past 7wks but getting v concerned the pattern off the Jan lows is an ABC nr completion with rel volume recently waning to a trickle and early mover in F&B Brewers 2nd worst internally last wk. NB concern abs performance, SRS prolly ok tho

Financials Internal rankings:

2/ ...mid Mar (orange), but there are also more tenuous traces of a LT cycle due to bottom ~end of mnth, with Regional Bonks deteriorating sharply wkly worst industry group internally. Thu highs ST key; above upper channel trendline test is on, below violent break of key support increasingly likely

Fins - yep got a ST bounce at key support levels in multiple key downside leadership groups internally, but Fri pre-attack jitters reignited weakness, with Banks and Invst Svcs bot 2 subsectors overall with Fins wkly/qtrly 2nd worst sec, and bot 3 in the former 5/8 past wks. See a dom cycle low...1/

Few Americans support U.S. military action against Iran, but a majority think it's likely About half of Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump's handling of the situation in Iran. A majority of Americans are unsure what the outcome of protests in the country will be

link: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

YouGov finds regime change marginally more popular than plain attacking Iran. Who knows whether that played a role in Trump's articulation of the aims, such as it was:

Add the Monster Raving Loony vote 👍

Factors - same energy...

yep, Financials mean reversion bounce continues to lead the mkt ST, but check out sector correlations, with 8/11 sectors 1m negatively correlated. and 2 of 3 positively correlated only rel weakly so. Current tight broad idx range ain't gonna last forever!

$NVDA - Huge volume Thu a +1yr rel record after OBV had been leading up past wks. Cycles ought to be supportive rn tho, and my pattern read says likely in the latter stages of C in an ABC B leg, with the wider C up due to get underway ST, likely to test px ATH. Breakdn=LT cycles have rolled over :-o

YouTube video by NiteGrooves UK JT And The Big Family - Moments In Soul (Original 12" Mix) (1989)

...As reworked and speeded up here in my Top of the Pops:

youtu.be/O3QQsbHaXlk

YouTube video by skv90s Art Of Noise - Moments In Love (1985) HD

...Tell a lie! If you - as I do - use the Kensho blockchain Crapto index as a key barometer of speculative juices, the Mon low was in fact a higher low/successful test of support from the prior wk!

www.youtube.com/watch?v=cen2...

Factors - $DWVAL Value now wkly 2nd worst following a 2d pounding, as peak Citrini sell-off hype pretty much bottom ticked the market lmao

subsector leaderboard fyi:

Housing Complex - yep, part deux of wkend comment on deck Wed with Bubblers 2nd worst subsector SRS-4.7% as $ZN Ponzis potentially made a double top into roll over, and the entire Complex SRS- with DIY Retail, Building Mats and Furnishings esp weak as wobbles caught both up/dn-stream areas :-0

YouTube video by TONES' TUNES Black Arabs - Anarchy In The U.K./God Save The Queen/Pretty Vacant/No One Is Innocent (Medley)

Recall buying the 7" of God Save the Queen in my in those days go to record store, Boots!

This one of the few Pistols tracks I still play occasionally tho:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2eF...

LT Rel Volume - just to give a flavour of what's been happening, there have clearly been modestly larger rel volume spikes in the past, but the recent string of 6 blowout readings is unprecedented:

Asset Mgmt - yep, and now once again leading the rel volume rankings within a whisker of the all time record set last Thu, but this time SRS+1% imv probably leading a ST sentiment change in Fins still in the vicinity of SRS key LT support, with some positive blue OBV divergences in play:

Financials LT - note top win SRS vs US Mkt at key support, and esp orange indicator 3rd win, relative strength vs the RoW ex US Global Financials, Tue setting a 6yr post C19 panic low, in the midst of a major long term breakdown. This is the regime change to focus on longer term :-o

Tue good'nuff for midwk reversal government work, with Inds and Mats again leading, and def Telecoms and Healthcare in the bottom 3, with selling pressure in Fins abating despite Cons Fin setting a 1.5yr SRS low at key support with the parent sector, and Banks SRS-1.5%. Great '26 Citrini crash over?