Mike Smitka

Pickups for Japan? No! Japan already has small pickups that match market needs

Here's a new substack article, extending an interview I did last week for NBC in Hong Kong on potential Ford F-150 sales to Japan. smitka.substack.com/p/pickups-fo...

I visited a decade back, an Industry Studies Association conference – several members of the MIT Intl Motor Vehicle Project ended up as founding members. Anyway, useable public transport, the Powells bookstore – and hats, reflecting generally drizzly weather...I wear hats, multiple stores!

Ideology and Economic Analysis How our markets-first ideology leads economists to misread the impact of China's Household Responsibility System

Check out my new substack article! I don’t know whether the subtitle is visible, but the content is about agrarian reform in China, it's not an abstract discussion of the philosophy of science.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...

Software Defined Vehicles: Damned if you Don't, but Damned if you do Industry-wide innovation is inevitable, unprofitable, and a mixed blessing for consumers

Software Defined Vehicles: Damned if you Don't, but Damned if you do
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...

Quick Update: Jobs Report for August 2025 ...a bunch of graphs

I've posted a bunch of graphs on substack, updating ones I set up in my teaching days with data through August 2025. Then back to work on a substack article on the sources of Chinese economic growth, which is not the naive "markets" story most economists tell. open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...

The Full Model Lineup Dilemma ...thinking about the maturing Chinese car market, particularly BYD

I just published a new substack, as an analytic exercise prior to analyzing BYD for a new SeekingAlpha article. More once that's up.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...

I just checked Amazon to get the proper citation, and found a lot of books that looked relevant. Anyway, years back I read Wm Bogart, Don't Call it Sprawl (2006), which (among many arguments) impressed me with its emphasis that road expansion amplifies sprawl without ending traffic jams.

And the optics, literally, of making it harder to judge distance at night...for me I-81 in the Shenandoah Valley is the relevant piece of road, with one of the highest densities of semis anywhere.

Three Strikes and You're Out: Strategic Challenges of the US Auto Industry ...are they (GM, Ford, Stellantis Chrysler) out?

As per the title of my latest substack article, the decline of the US industry continues. I'm en route back from a month in Asia, and will post on the Chinese and Japanese auto industries in the coming weeks.
smitka.substack.com/p/three-stri...

China Autos Q1/April Update: Tesla Stalls (NASDAQ:TSLA) Tesla faces falling global demand, rising competition, and margin pressure, undermining its long-term outlook/valuation. Learn why TSLA stock is a strong sell.

SeekingAlpha just published my latest article, I present lots of data. The title says it all, I don't look at the US but I do provide Europe data through 2025Q1.

seekingalpha.com/article/4787...

The Ascent of China's Private Car Firms ...and the collapse of its national champion State Owned Enterprises

A dramatic ascent by new players – in Jan '20 BYD was nothing, now it's THE player. Through joint ventures, policy supported firms owned by central (FAW, Dongfeng) and municipal govts (BAIC, SAIC, GAW, Changan). Failures!

The Ascent of China's Private Car Firms open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...

Buy Here Pay Here: Paying Cash for Clunkers With A Nod to the New York Times

Just a head's up that I have a short substack post following up on my article on how tariffs will affect used car prices. That in fact is already happening, referencing a New York Times story.
open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...

Reshoring: What it Takes to Build a New Factory Or why we won't see a rush of manufacturing returning to US shores

Opening a new plant is challenging at the best of times, you have to line up a lot of ducks, and they all have to fall in the right sequence. This isn't the best of times. For more on how tough it is, see my latest substack.
smitka.substack.com/p/reshoring-...

Clunkers for Cash The impact of tariffs on used car owners

See my new substack on the impact of tariffs on used car prices. In 2009 we had a "cash for clunkers" program. Now we have a de facto Clunkers for Cash program, as consumers burn through cash to keep aging cars on the road.

smitka.substack.com/p/clunkers-f...

China: A Price War? – maybe not! Discounting is rampant, but in line with changes in supply and demand

I've forgotten about posting to Blue Sky.
In any case, I just published a new substack article on the auto market in China. (I also have a recent article on Tesla in China at SeekingAlpha, behind a paywall.) I hope you find it informative! open.substack.com/pub/smitka/p...

Ah, John just emailed me your full name and affiliation. A bunch of his students have changed jobs in the past couple months, either out of the area or time conflicts. Hard times.

Figures!

Staunton & Harrisonburg Kendo, Iaido, & Jodo Teaching Kendo, Iaido, and Jodo in the Shenandoah Valley

Nice. Sending to my son, who teaches iaido, kendo and jodo at stauntonkendo.com. His equipment takes up 1.5 rooms of our house...

Need to get my son to join, maybe Bluesky will help him publicize regional kendo, iaido and jodo activities. He's off today to sell 2 of his extra swords...

Mike Smitka on the Auto Industry, Japan, and China | Substack I write about the global auto industry, with occasional posts on the economies of China and Japan, and on economics as a science. Click to read Mike Smitka on the Auto Industry, Japan, and China, a Su...

My latest substack is on Chinese industrial policy for the auto industry. China's EVs lead, and large cash subsidies were crucial. But the wrong firms are winning: the big state-owned automotive enterprises aren't doing well, instead private firms are the winners. See smitka.substack.com