Max Dugan-Knight

Wow. I guess I should have thought of that but always a bit shocking when human activity supersedes a natural global cycle

Fascinating. Why is that?

Thanks for the great analysis and desperately needed source of optimism @kingsmillbond.bsky.social and Sumant Sinha.

This is obviously a good thing for global emissions.

It's also a good thing because it weakens the position of fossil exporters like the US eager to keep us trapped in fossil dependence.

Those powers are losing the energy future despite their best efforts. The world is better for it.

A lot of talk at various COPs has focused on whether rich countries will financially support poor countries developing cleanly rather than following the West along the "fossil detour".

It turns out developing countries are taking the clean route *despite* rich countries' lack of support.

Pakistan's solar boom Pakistan's massive solar boom is creating a bottom-up energy revolution that could become the blueprint for developing nations worldwide.

That is genuinely great news. Pakistan is similarly embracing cheap solar and storage. www.volts.wtf/p/pakistans-...

Countries developing now have access to clean energy tech at a price that beats out most fossil energy sources.

I'm as depressed as anyone about the US dropping all climate ambition but more important for global climate is which path countries like 🇮🇳 take en route to energy abundance.

This @ember-energy.org analysis shows India is skipping the "fossil detour".

ember-energy.org/latest-insig...

If that’s his territory so is 🇨🇦 just so we’re all clear up here

You’ve heard of shot / chaser but this Carney Trump speech combo is like a glass of red wine then a gallon of ammonia

Just please for the love of god stay away from greenwood

100%. This is also why it’s so addictive. I’ve done this for hours on end because there’s something so tempting about trying just one more thing (without actually thinking about it) and the chance that it’ll all magically work.

I'll keep posting here -- I still love this platform and community, but wanted a place for longer form thoughts and one where I could reach people in my life not on Bluesky (gasp).

If you subscribe you may also get some bonus commentary on trends in data and AI.

Max’s Substack | Substack My personal Substack. Click to read Max’s Substack, a Substack publication. Launched 13 hours ago.

Personal update time!

I have a new job and a new Substack: maxdk.substack.com

Job: I am moving to Databricks as a Solutions Architect.

Substack: I want to keep thinking and writing about the data behind climate change and the tools we have to fight it. I'd love to have you follow along!

To be clear, this "High-warming" scenario is where we're headed under our current emissions trajectory.

Climate action is often presented as too expensive. But what's actually expensive is huge stock market losses and people losing their retirements.

www.ortecfinance.com/en/about-ort...

Chart showing 33% pension losses by 2050 under "high-warming" scenario

It's always refreshing to read analysis of a real risk that few are talking about.

A new report from Ortec is more clear-eyed than most about institutional investors' dangerous exposure to climate risk.

"A failed low-carbon transition could wipe 33% off pension fund returns worldwide by 2050".

Hi @rutherdan.bsky.social I only just found this report and am loving the analysis. Did you by any chance make any of the data available? Specifically, I'm interested in Figure 6 and the two emissions trajectories.

I would love to see the raw data if you've got it. Thanks!

Graph showing global temperature change from 1 year of emissions. The temperature impact is very persistent (1000+ years)

Got it! Thanks for the tip 🙏

That is helpful thanks. I was just starting from a preindustrial equilibrium and not doing any differencing. Going to try your approach now

Update: got it working. My results are not identical to Zeke's but close enough for my purposes. Thanks again

Thanks @jgilligan.org I'm currently trying to replicate the simulation on my computer but am having a hard time getting the configs right.

You don't have a working example script by any chance do you?

@hausfath.bsky.social do you by any chance have the raw model results for this plot handy to share? I'd love to use this in some visualizations. I'll accept csv, json, txt, google sheet, whatever!

Thanks in advance 🙏

I sure did! Apologies

Also lots of people in high risk areas end up getting coverage from FAIR plans which end up being subsidized by the tax base i.e. everyone else.

It’s a very precarious situation that is increasing costs for everyone.

Malibu prices are indicative of a larger trend of gross overvaluation that does not consider climate risk or the fact that it’s increasing every year.

There aren’t many who can afford to lose their house entirely.

Thanks Kelly! Understood. If anything I’m even more concerned now about how poorly we all understand future climate risk

(sorry forgot link) www.moodys.com/web/en/us/ca...

Interesting! Thanks for clarifying @kellyhereid.bsky.social - that does feel like it is often mis-represented.

I feel like I frequently see Cat models described as forecasting future events. Like Moody's does here.

How near-to-present are we talking?

As I say in the article: "If insurance companies are worried, we should all be worried.”

The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.

Insurers have the most advanced modeling capabilities, the most up to date data, they are extremely financially motivated to accurately price risk, and as of this year in California they are allowed to use forward-looking predictive models (CAT models) to assess future wildfire risk.

Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels The home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.

Let’s ignore all of the data on increasing wildfire risk due to climate change and just look at insurers’ actions. Our June report found that home insurers in California are raising prices and abandoning homeowners in the highest risk wildfire zip codes.

www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...