Max Dugan-Knight

To be clear, this "High-warming" scenario is where we're headed under our current emissions trajectory.

Climate action is often presented as too expensive. But what's actually expensive is huge stock market losses and people losing their retirements.

www.ortecfinance.com/en/about-ort...

Chart showing 33% pension losses by 2050 under "high-warming" scenario

It's always refreshing to read analysis of a real risk that few are talking about.

A new report from Ortec is more clear-eyed than most about institutional investors' dangerous exposure to climate risk.

"A failed low-carbon transition could wipe 33% off pension fund returns worldwide by 2050".

Hi @rutherdan.bsky.social I only just found this report and am loving the analysis. Did you by any chance make any of the data available? Specifically, I'm interested in Figure 6 and the two emissions trajectories.

I would love to see the raw data if you've got it. Thanks!

Graph showing global temperature change from 1 year of emissions. The temperature impact is very persistent (1000+ years)

Got it! Thanks for the tip 🙏

That is helpful thanks. I was just starting from a preindustrial equilibrium and not doing any differencing. Going to try your approach now

Update: got it working. My results are not identical to Zeke's but close enough for my purposes. Thanks again

Thanks @jgilligan.org I'm currently trying to replicate the simulation on my computer but am having a hard time getting the configs right.

You don't have a working example script by any chance do you?

@hausfath.bsky.social do you by any chance have the raw model results for this plot handy to share? I'd love to use this in some visualizations. I'll accept csv, json, txt, google sheet, whatever!

Thanks in advance 🙏

I sure did! Apologies

Also lots of people in high risk areas end up getting coverage from FAIR plans which end up being subsidized by the tax base i.e. everyone else.

It’s a very precarious situation that is increasing costs for everyone.

Malibu prices are indicative of a larger trend of gross overvaluation that does not consider climate risk or the fact that it’s increasing every year.

There aren’t many who can afford to lose their house entirely.

Thanks Kelly! Understood. If anything I’m even more concerned now about how poorly we all understand future climate risk

(sorry forgot link) www.moodys.com/web/en/us/ca...

Interesting! Thanks for clarifying @kellyhereid.bsky.social - that does feel like it is often mis-represented.

I feel like I frequently see Cat models described as forecasting future events. Like Moody's does here.

How near-to-present are we talking?

As I say in the article: "If insurance companies are worried, we should all be worried.”

The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.

Insurers have the most advanced modeling capabilities, the most up to date data, they are extremely financially motivated to accurately price risk, and as of this year in California they are allowed to use forward-looking predictive models (CAT models) to assess future wildfire risk.

Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels The home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.

Let’s ignore all of the data on increasing wildfire risk due to climate change and just look at insurers’ actions. Our June report found that home insurers in California are raising prices and abandoning homeowners in the highest risk wildfire zip codes.

www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...

"Before the fires, it would not have been possible to buy on the beach in Malibu at a price this low".

How you interpret this fact says a lot about how much attention you are paying to climate risk.

But the difference between what the climate risk data show and what the other sources quoted in the article are saying is a perfect encapsulation of the madness in the US real estate sector right now.

To be clear, the author Lauren Edmonds does a terrific job laying out the positions and making a complex topic clear. The different viewpoints are part of what make it a great article.

And the other sources quoted come at this from a very different angle from me and have different backgrounds.

Empty lots in Malibu destroyed by the LA fires are now on the market for millions Homes burned to the ground in Malibu during a wildfire seven months ago. The now empty lots are selling for millions.

It’s not often I strongly disagree with every other person quoted in an article in which I am also quoted.

But I have to admit that’s true of this @businessinsider.com story that came out Sunday.

www.businessinsider.com/malibu-ocean...

Is it fair to say that the precipitation distribution is getting flatter — fewer days at the mean and more at the extremes at both ends (downpours and no rainfall) ?

I have found your “hydroclimate whiplash” phrase to resonate really well fwiw

This confusion is part of why the obsession with global average temperature bothers me.

Climate change is operating at the extreme ends of the distribution (temperature, precipitation, etc.)

If you just look at the average you’re missing the biggest impacts.

What hundreds of millions have experienced even if they live nowhere near these fires is the smoke 💨

Smoky air has real health effects. It also hints at a vicious cycle where climate change causes wildfires, and wildfires then emit enormous quantities of CO2 which contribute to climate change.

Fire risk map of Canada showing FWI anomaly at mid-July point

Hot and dry conditions have pushed risk to new levels and new parts of Canada 🥵

I'm particularly worried about worsening conditions in more densely populated areas like southern parts of BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.

Wildfire risk escalates across Canada as summer conditions intensify Canada is facing an unusually severe and widespread wildfire season, with hot, dry conditions fueling fires across western, central, and now eastern provinces—aligning with Deep Sky Research’s forecas...

In our spring report about the upcoming wildfire season we projected abnormally high risk in several parts of Western Canada 🇨🇦

But the fires so far have surpassed my expectations.

Here's our latest update on wildfire risk in Canada

www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/wildfir...

But none of this is easy.

Addressing climate change means making clear to everyone how it is already hurting people.

Food scarcity is going to be a big one.

This is one of those slow-moving trends with many input variables that's hard to directly attribute to climate change.

If we struggle to connect deadly storms and flooding with climate change, helping the public understand how climate change is impacting food security will not be easy.

The Crash No One Sees Coming: Food System Failure Climate-driven food shocks pose a growing risk to global markets. As yields fall and insurance retreats, the next financial crash may start in the fields.

Pleased to see Deep Sky Research cited in this great article on an under-reported topic 🌽📉

“We’re losing 120 calories per person, per day, for every degree of global warming.”

www.forbes.com/sites/felici...

Why 'Hundred-Year' Storms Are Happening More Often Than That Climate change is making uncommon events more common. Here's what a 1-in-100 year storm means.

Our cited hurricane report found that extreme rainfall during hurricane season has become 300% more common and 33% more severe.

Online version of article here: time.com/7289719/hund...