WeatherFront

Watching supercells interact and evolve is so mesmerizing.

Here’s what their dance looked like tonight as they raced across western KY.

Several wildfires have broken out across the Central Appalachians this afternoon. 🔥

How many smoke plumes can you spot in this satellite loop?

A strong storm system in the Drake Passage is packing sustained winds of 40 to 60 mph and wind gusts up to 90(!) mph across the southern half of Argentina.

An expansive dust storm is ongoing, with the most significant visibility reductions in the Chubut Province, including the city of Trelew.

LONG FETCH LAKE EFFECT

Later tonight, a lake effect snow band could extend nearly 800 miles from Ontario to Pennsylvania.

↘️Lake Nipigon
↘️ Lake Superior
↘️ Lake Huron
↘️Lake Erie

The forecast wind direction out of the northwest will maximize the “fetch” or distance air travels over warm lake waters.

Despite minimal instability, a few strong to damaging wind gusts are possible this evening across western PA, eastern OH, and northern WV.

There will be plenty of shear (~35kts) and we’ll see if an approaching cold front can generate enough lift to mix down very strong winds aloft.
#WeatherFrontWx

You don’t have to use a web browser to look at weather models on your phone!

#WFFeatureFriday

Wait for it…💨📉

A strong cold front will sweep through east Asia early next week, bringing gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and accumulating snow at higher elevations across northeast China, North Korea, and Tokyo.

AURORA CLOUD COVER FORECAST

A G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for Wednesday.

The Northern Lights may be visible as far south as Alabama & South Carolina.

Cloud cover forecasts look most favorable across the south central & southeast US, though portions of the Midwest could catch a glimpse

Satellite imagery captured a fresh coat of snow blanketing parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio this morning. ❄️

If you look closely, you can watch the snow slowly melt away. 🫠☀️

A Tornado Watch is in effect for Central Tennessee until 11PM ET/10PM CT.

The Watch area aligns well with the 5% tornado risk area outlined by the Storm Prediction Center.

Any supercells will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes through the evening.

It’s been a blustery past 36 hours across the northeast US. 💨

Thanks! Feel free to adopt. 💪🌧️

Ooooof. 🥶

💨 High Wind Watches and Wind Advisories are in effect from West Virginia to Maine. ⚠️

Widespread wind gusts exceeding 40mph are expected from West Virginia to Maine

Localized wind gusts exceeding 60mph are possible along a cold front as “power showers” being stronger winds aloft down to the surface

Sufficient shear and ample moisture return should support organized convection that could grow upscale along the cold front, especially Friday afternoon.

All hazards are possible with this storm system including heavy rainfall, damaging thunderstorm winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.

A potent shortwave trough will swing through northern Argentina, Paraguay, and Southern Brazil Thursday and Friday.

At the surface, a deepening cyclone attached to a strong cold front will encounter 1,500-3,000 J/kg of instability Thursday and Friday, which will help initiate thunderstorms.

Severe weather season is starting to heat up in the Southern Hemisphere. ⛈️

The latest GEFS and ECENS guidance depicts daily chances of thunderstorms this week across South America, with the potential severity ramping up as we approach the weekend.

CONTINUED

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi is headed toward the Philippines. Impacts expected Mon night - Wed morning. 🌀

The storm will intensify to a Typhoon over the South China Sea with impacts possible in Vietnam Thu-Sat. ⚠️

Another storm may develop in the western Pacific by the second half of next weekend. ❓

The hail threat across southeast Texas will increase over the next few hours as storms fire in the vicinity of a front.

A few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are already in effect. Models disagree about how many strong storms will develop, but the Slight Risk outlines the area of greatest concern.

The #Halloween2025 forecast looks pleasant for most of the US! 🎃

Only a few spooky 👻 spots according to the latest NWS forecast:

💨Gusty winds in the Northeast
☔️Rain in northwest Washington & downwind of the Great Lakes
🥶Chilly with wind & rain in the High Plains

🌫️Some models are depicting dense valley fog on Friday (left) & Saturday morning (right) in the SE US.

👍Clear skies & calm winds will promote ideal radiational cooling.

❓Will the anomalously dry air hinder fog development too much?

👀We’ll see what the Nighttime Microphysics imagery looks like!

So glad to hear you’re enjoying the app so far! We don’t have a composite view yet, but we plan to add it in the next couple months.

It will be a great feature to have - thanks for the suggestion!

Fall has arrived along the Gulf Coast! 💨📉

🏝️Passes near Bermuda Thursday night as a Category 1 hurricane (80 kt/92 mph)

↗️Undergoes extratropical transition this weekend as she races northeast toward Northern Europe - max winds weaken to Tropical Storm force but wind field expands significantly

After landfall in Cuba overnight, what’s next for #Melissa?

🌀Maintains Category 2 strength (100+ mph winds) through tonight as she crosses the eastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.
🏎️Swept up by a strong upper trough moving off the US east coast & gains considerable forward speed in the coming days

Thanks to some vigilant friends out there, I have a nearly-complete 87-hour radar loop of #Melissa 's approach to #Jamaica. The loop abruptly ends when the radar is lost (either loss of communication with it or loss of the actual structure).
bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

Concerned for the area around Black River, Jamaica for surge flooding, apart from catastrophic wind, rainfall flood impacts.

SLOSH, wind wave model combination suggests over 6 feet of above ground inundation or higher possible in areas shaded in orange and red.

The many satellite views of #Melissa 🛰️

The northward turn has begun.

Unfortunately, that means Melissa is almost certainly headed for landfall in Jamaica.

Wobbles — technically called trochoidal motion — are guaranteed over the next 18-24 hours. The direction and extent of motion will ultimately dictate exactly where landfall occurs.

Two circular eyes, two powerful storms.

#Melissa, like #Humberto earlier this year, has the look of a major hurricane.