Olya Oliker aka Dr. Olga Oliker (she/her)

Interesting. I had a conversation with someone the other day about whether the language in which you ask the question affects the answer an LLM gives you, particularly when it comes to matters of international affairs, but not only. Have not tested that (and probably won't), so still wondering.

Високі ставки: чому так важко узгодити гарантії безпеки для України | International Crisis Group Україна просить своїх партнерів надати їй гарантії безпеки — найкраще негайно, але в будь-якому разі до того, як буде укладено якусь угоду з Росією. Експерти Кризової групи пояснюють, чому для прихиль...

А чем, вообще, являются гарантии безопасности, и почему они стали таким тяжелым вопросом в отношениях между Украиной и ее партнерами? Мы ( @crisisgroup.org ) объясняем (текст доступний українською мовою, на русском, & in English)
www.crisisgroup.org/uk/europe-ce...

High Stakes Promises: The Challenge of Security Guarantees for Ukraine | International Crisis Group Ukraine is asking its partners for security guarantees – ideally now, but certainly before it makes any deal with Russia. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why this topic is so fraught for Ukr...

Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.

A Bigger Table? The Case for More Global Diplomacy over Ukraine | International Crisis Group This week on War & Peace, Olga and guest host Alissa de Carbonnel speak with Bob Deen, Head of the Security Unit at the Clingendael Institute, about diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine and how countri...

Trump isn't the first global leader to try (& try) to find a path to peace in the Russo-Ukraine war. New @crisisgroup.org War & Peace podcast welcomes @clingendael.bsky.social's Bob Deen to discuss the roles global powers have tried to play & might yet play with guest host Alissa de Carbonnel & me.

Not to be THAT dictionary, but…

It’s ‘per se,’ not ‘per say.’
It’s ‘dog-eat-dog world,’ not ‘doggy-dog world.’
It’s ‘hunger pangs,’ not ‘hunger pains.’
It’s ‘one and the same,’ not ‘one in the same.’
It's 'buck naked,' not 'butt naked.'

this is a good speech.

(to be clear, this isn't a brilliant new insight on my part--it's well-documented. But not so well documented that people don't fail to see it again and again and again)

This is a terrific success story. It also offers valuable insight into the gaps in much traditional economic/employment/income analysis: a lot of people, most of them female, do a great deal of unpaid agricultural labor that is not accounted for unless the models are built to recognize it.

This is funny.

Watch List 2025 – Autumn Update | International Crisis Group Each year, Crisis Group publishes two updates to the EU Watch List identifying where the EU and its member states can enhance prospects for peace. This update covers Kosovo’s politics, Mexico’s securi...

Our latest @crisisgroup.org EU Watchlist starts with a sober President's Take on the challenges of navigating between the Scylla of Russian threats and the Charybdis of US inconstancy, then dives deep into how the EU can help make things better in Kosovo, Mexico, Yemen, Somalia, and Taiwan.

More terrific work from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, @dexeve.bsky.social & the CNA team. Come for smart analysis on what nuke infrastructure is/not in Belarus & what signals Moscow & Minsk are trying to send. Stay for Russians grappling with realities of war not matching theories of war.

Absolutely. Excellent point.

Absolutely. The question is who is driving what bits of policy and what happens when they pull in their different directions, especially given all the other vagaries of that particular system.

I think everyone's adapting. What I want to know is whether they're adapting appropriately, & making the right judgements about how the other (& perhaps other potential adversaries) is adapting/may yet adapt.

I think super important to track what they're saying about what they fear, what they think war looks like, & what they think adversaries will do, as well as what they themselves hope to do & what they actually do. Also crucial to track the disconnects between these & whether & when they narrow. 7/7

Relatedly, I was struck by @massdara.bsky.social's description of all the whiz-bangy things Russia thinks will be possible with drones & AI. It reminds me of the creative thinking I've seen over decades following Russian military writing. In line with Adamsky, most of this stuff never happens. 6/7

The Culture of Military Innovation | Stanford University Press This book studies the impact of cultural factors on the course of military innovations. One would expect that countries accustomed to similar technologies would undergo analogous changes in their perc...

Further, as Dima Adamsky has written, there's a certain comfort in Russia with disconnects between theory & practice. But just because it's comfortable, doesn't mean it translates into effectiveness. 5/7

The strategic culture may just be sticky: it could shift in time. But as @massdara.bsky.social notes, Russia's history of military learning is patchy, & as @gabrielairosa.bsky.social describes, strategic culture is hard to shift, perhaps especially in Russia. 4/7

Meanwhile, @massdara.bsky.social describes folks on the front lines & those responsible for putting them there learning from the present & looking to the future of high-tech warfare & new ways of fighting, albeit facing some of Russia's usual military pathologies. So there's some disconnect. 3/7

Per @gabrielairosa.bsky.social, Moscow's strategic culture is still looking to a very big (& thus very short) war with NATO, & old school ways of doing things. 2/7

How Russia Recovered What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

Really interesting analysis from @massdara.bsky.social on what Russian military is learning, & its learning challenges. Paired with @gabrielairosa.bsky.social's recent work on Russian strategic thinking & threat perceptions www.cna.org/analyses/202..., it's got me thinking. So join me in a 🧵 1/7

YouTube video by International Crisis Group MAPPING CONFLICT | Russia’s Growing Influence in Africa

The logic of Russian military assistance (including deployments of Wagner and Africa Corps), explained in a short video, with excellent maps, from @crisisgroup.org w/the erudite Pauline Bax narrating! www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0yI...

What to Make of Trump’s Gaza Plan? | International Crisis Group This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan, who might benefit fro...

On this week’s episode, I joined Richard Atwood along with my colleagues @mairavz.bsky.social @maxji.bsky.social and Amjad Iraqi to discuss Trump’s Gaza ceasefire proposals and next steps.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Really important stuff from @gabrielairosa.bsky.social & CNA. Our own assumptions about what others think are bound to get things wrong. Always a good idea to go to the sources. Read the thread, then read the report!

Kayla has been there and done that and knows things.

Moldova Votes EU, but Obstacles Clutter Path to Membership | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Marta Mucznik analyses the victory in parliamentary polls of the country’s pro-European integration party and the next steps in the accession process

Moldova's parliamentary elections have given ruling party PAS a mandate to keep on keeping on with European integration and EU accession. But there's still a lot of work to do, and some substantial challenges to overcome. My @crisisgroup.org colleague Marta Mucznik explains.

Tell me again how gender (& especially gender performance) isn't relevant to politics (foreign and domestic).

What to Make of Trump’s Ukraine Diplomacy? | International Crisis Group This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic effo...

On the new @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, I join host Richard Atwood, @luciankim.bsky.social, & @stevepomper.bsky.social to talk Trump's changing rhetoric on Ukraine, how dynamics look from Kyiv, & airspace incursions in Europe. We don't figure it all out, but we cover a lot! Listen in!

Putin just gave Trump the opportunity to maintain nuclear restraint. Will he seize it? Extending New START will also give time for Trump to work with Russia and China on future arms control accords.

🚨 JUST IN: President Donald Trump has an opportunity to avoid the dangers of an unrestrained nuclear arms competition—something he has repeatedly warned about. Will he seize it?

Latest by Matt Bunn (@matthew-bunn.bsky.social) in @thebulletin.org

#nuclearweapons #nukesky #Trump #Putin #China

☺️ Thanks, Kim!