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Stephen Marrin

@smarrin.bsky.social

Full Prof at James Madison University & Director of Intelligence Analysis program. Former CIA analyst. Editor of journal Intelligence & National Security https://www.tandfonline.com/journals/fint20

297 Followers  |  323 Following  |  40 Posts  |  Joined: 09.01.2025  |  2.1303

Latest posts by smarrin.bsky.social on Bluesky

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We are hiring! @mqsois.bsky.social is currently recruiting a full time, ongoing Lecturer Level B in Cyber Security and Cyber Intelligence. This is a Teaching & Leadership position and could be a great opportunity for an early career academic. More info here: www.seek.com.au/job/88616507

19.11.2025 02:08 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Invisible bodies of war: British servicewomen on covert operations in Northern Ireland Women were employed to operate covertly with British security forces and paramilitary organisations during the Troubles in Northern Ireland (1968–1998). However, the experiences and legacies of Bri...

New article in Intelligence and National Security titled "Invisible bodies of war: British servicewomen on covert operations in Northern Ireland" by Hannah West at:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

20.11.2025 17:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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A country with β€œits own special problems”: domestic surveillance in Scotland during the Second World War In the early years of the Second World War, rising workplace discontent, perceived communist influence, and war weariness sparked a suite of investigations into civilian mood and behaviour in the v...

New article titled "A country with β€œits own special problems”: domestic surveillance in Scotland during the Second World War" by Michelle Walker, published in Intelligence and National Security at: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

20.11.2025 17:17 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

New (free to access) article published in Intelligence and National Security titled: "Veiled intentions: Hamas’s strategic deception and intelligence success on 7 October 2023 by Muhanad Seloom at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

20.11.2025 17:06 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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From @jonathanrugman.bsky.social’s Killing In The Consulate

18.11.2025 18:04 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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The mathematical machinery of causal inference: from data to decision advantage Quantitative intelligence analysis often leans on pattern recognition; in adversary-shaped settings, such correlations can be engineered. Building on Judea Pearl’s structural causal models – origin...

New article titled "The mathematical machinery of causal inference: from data to decision advantage" by Stephen Matthew Elin, published in Intelligence and National Security: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

18.11.2025 16:46 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

New article published in Intelligence and National Security (open access) by Peter de Werd titled "The value of engaged critique: civic intelligence oversight and the freedom of information in the Netherlands"
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

18.11.2025 16:42 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Intelligence and National Security Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation. Volume 40, Issue 5 of Intelligence and National Security

Special issue of Intelligence and National Security Published! Topic is "Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation" See details here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/4...

08.11.2025 21:02 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Intelligence and National Security Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation. Volume 40, Issue 5 of Intelligence and National Security

Special issue of Intelligence and National Security Published! Topic is "Rethinking Strategic Warning and Intelligence Failure in an Era of Global Transformation" See details here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/fint20/4...

08.11.2025 21:02 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Please join us in congratulating @smarrin.bsky.social and Hamilton Bean. Both just hit 2,000 citations, but that's only a small measure of their contributions to Intelligence Studies.

scholar.google.com/citations?us...

scholar.google.com/citations?us...

22.09.2025 19:06 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is another reason that demanding the admin make the case for war to Congress and the US public is so important: to make sure the admin has stress tested not just the goals, but also the operational arrangements (including veto-power over Israeli operations), and also that it has an exit plan.

19.06.2025 15:33 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

"This is what we were voting for!"

From a friend in academia:

>>I was with a public health professor from [major university] last weekend and he said that NIH is now euthanizing whole cohorts of animals from animal studies because there is nobody around to feed them<<

Great work.

24.05.2025 23:57 β€” πŸ‘ 5960    πŸ” 2567    πŸ’¬ 311    πŸ“Œ 284
Lynne Rienner Publishers | Counterintelligence at Its Core Assessing and Preventing Foreign Espionage Lynne Rienner Publishers, celebrating 35 years of independent publishing, is known for its cutting-edge, high quality scholarly and academic books and journals in politics, social sciences, and the hu...

Two thumbs up for Kevin Riehle's new book on #counterintelligence.

Looks like a great companion to James M. Olson's classic To Catch a Spy: The Art of Counterintelligence.

Hope #FBI Academy got a copy.

www.rienner.com/title/Counte...

24.05.2025 21:54 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This is how authoritarian governments operate: They don’t just ignore the truth they demand that others rewrite it to suit their goals. And in this case, the cost is real human lives migrants being deported under false pretenses, denied basic legal rights, and sent into danger.

17.05.2025 01:30 β€” πŸ‘ 1108    πŸ” 135    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 2
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Opinion | What happens when honest intelligence work can get you fired? The U.S. appears to be on the verge of finding out.

Good article about intelligence analysis here: www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

17.05.2025 02:04 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Gabbard fires leaders of intelligence group that wrote Venezuela assessment The director of national intelligence fired top officials weeks after their group authored an assessment contradicting President Donald Trump’s legal rationale for deporting alleged Venezuelan gang me...

Not good. The IC provides analysis independent of policy preferences. When those in power do not want to hear inconvenient facts & unwanted interpretation & punish messengers that provide it, that undermines the reason the IC was created in the first place www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

14.05.2025 16:48 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Trust without knowledge? UK intelligence agencies and the public trust conundrum Intelligence agencies operating in modern-day liberal democracies are dependent on the public for support. In recent years, the UK’s intelligence and security agencies have adopted a public facing ...

New article in Intelligence and National Security titled "Trust without knowledge? UK intelligence agencies and the public trust conundrum" by Ged Hiscoke, Stephen Ward & Daniel Lomas at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

13.05.2025 18:52 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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William Playfair, pioneer of modern intelligence William Playfair (1759–1823) pioneered several ideas accepted as fundamental to intelligence today, including compilations of national capabilities and covert economic warfare. Known primarily as a...

New article on British intelligence history written by Bruce Berkowitz and published in Intelligence and National Security titled "William Playfair, pioneer of modern intelligence" with link here:

www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

13.05.2025 17:50 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Furthering Intelligence Research This report addresses the differences between research and intelligence analysis, what intelligence research has been and should be done, and how the National Intelligence University can make research...

New RAND report on intelligence studies research titled "Furthering Intelligence Research: How the National Intelligence University Can Fill Critical Gaps for Intelligence Research" here: www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

08.05.2025 14:31 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Is the mere existence of an intelligence committee enough? Learning from the case study of the Finnish parliament Legislatures are increasingly investing resources into oversight of intelligence agencies. However, effective control of intelligence is wrought with challenges: while national security is a highly...

New article published in Intelligence and National Security titled "Is the mere existence of an intelligence committee enough? Learning from the case study of the Finnish parliament" by Tapio Raunio at www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

29.04.2025 13:16 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Thinking and Writing: Cognitive Science and Intelligence Analysis - CSIButton to search CIA content.InstagramFacebookTwitterLinkedInYouTubeFlickrTelegram

Link to "Thinking and Writing: Cognitive Science and Intelligence Analysis" here: www.cia.gov/resources/cs...

21.04.2025 16:06 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Robert Sinclair Obituary (1934 - 2025) - Arlington, VA - The Washington Post View Robert Soutter Sinclair's obituary, send flowers and sign the guestbook.

RIP Robert Sinclar--author of CIA's "Thinking and Writing: Cognitive Science and Intelligence Analysis." "He was one of the founding members of the CIA Canoe Pool, commuting to the CIA's Langley, VA offices by canoe across the Potomac River" www.legacy.com/us/obituarie...

21.04.2025 16:03 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Intelligence History Book Prize 2025 We are delighted to announce our call for nominations for the Intelligence History Book Prize 2025. The prize is worth € 1,000 and will be awarded by the International Intelligence History Associat…

From Thomas Boghardt: "The International Intelligence History Association has issued a call for their intelligence history book prize 2025. For more information, see: intelligence-history.org?p=1521

10.04.2025 19:52 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Call for papers for Israeli intelligence studies conference (28-29 October 2025), with proposals due 31 July 2025. See details below...good opportunity for intelligence studies scholars and practitioners here!

06.04.2025 19:38 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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NOCs and illegals in the current surveillance landscape: can mimicry help overcome evolving challenges? This study examines the evolving challenges faced by intelligence operatives, particularly Non-Official Cover (NOC) officers and illegals, in the context of modern surveillance technologies. With a...

New article published, titled "NOCs and illegals in the current surveillance landscape: can mimicry help overcome evolving challenges?" by Grigorij Serscikov, at the journal Intelligence and National Security, here:
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

04.04.2025 14:13 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

This might be a great example of analytic intelligence failure due to what looks like it not only analytic error but analytic fraud

31.03.2025 02:52 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Flashback

[Spoiler: special prosecutor recommended charges for gross negligence in mishandling national defense information]

27.03.2025 17:25 β€” πŸ‘ 226    πŸ” 63    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 0
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Call for Papers - MΔ°A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ACADEMYΒ INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS ON INTELLIGENCE STUDIES – CALL FOR PAPERS The National Intelligence Academy - TΓΌrkiye (NIA

Call for papers for intelligence studies conference in Turkey on 10-12 October 2025 in Ankara, Turkey. It is organized by Turkey's National Intelligence Academy. Additional details here: mia.edu.tr/sayfa-call-f...

26.03.2025 18:48 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Child labor to fill the labor shortages resulting from deportation of migrants/immigrants. Better to overwork children than to have immigrants do it. Everything about this is stupid.

27.03.2025 13:49 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

@smarrin is following 20 prominent accounts