Bernard Hickey

Israel said it launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran, pushing the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's long-running nuclear dispute with the West reut.rs/3N9KHGD

Current Wisdom. Newsday.com/matt

Broad money is basically the amount of money we have in the bank. If you adjust that stack of $ for inflation and population, you get broad money per capita (real). Now, plot the annual change. How many times does it go from positive to negative? Do they look like good times? Green shoots times?

Trump: "Maybe we do one more term. Should we? Do one more term! We're entitled to it."

And ‘investment boost’

I arrived on the shores of Aotearoa over 12 years ago. Every year there have been cuts to public research and redundancies of public researchers. I cannot overstate how dire this is and how much of our future we are losing.
Public research is one way we look after one another. It matters. #NZPOL

Government’s new science institute to lose 6% of staff less than a year after forming The Bioeconomy Science Institute is shedding 6% of its staff.

And people wonder why NZ’s R&D spend is way lower than the rest of the OECD & our productivity is in the toilet. www.stuff.co.nz/politics/360...

Sigh

Gorton and Denton by-election result

Grn 40.7% (+27 vs 2024)
Ref 28.7% (+15)
Lab 25.4% (-25)
Con 1.9% (-6)
LD 1.8% (-2)

Labour's 38th safest seat in 2024

Labour indicates Greens on course to win key by-election Loss would be a severe blow to UK ruling party after divisive campaign

Labour indicates Greens on course to win key by-election ft.trib.al/aWabMOd

And not even an annual injection of $20b seems enough to offset the contraction due to dividend and interest payments overseas by private sector and further debt repayment by farmers, businesses and households. Basically Economy just treading water...

A Mini-Hoon with Ben Reid on Citrini's report about AI that unnerved global stocks This week a speculative Substack post about ever-faster AI tools creating a self-reinforcing doom loop of fewer jobs & lower wages for humans -- while AI owners win big -- shook global stocks.

In which I chatted with Ben Reid about that @citrini.bsky.social report on AI that shook markets. Will there be enough wage income for humans? Will AI do all the work? Is it all happening at a speed humans and economies can adjust to without blowing up? #nzpol open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/...

What a world we live in now.

Ha!

Great thread here from @musicalchairs.bsky.social As always.

Enjoying (mostly) @bernardchickey.bsky.social interview with David Skilling and the earlier Treasury presentation (www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNQm...). Lots to agree with in terms of the need to be deliberate about economic strategy (laissez-faire is dead). But a few critical missing bits... [🧵 1/n]

People who don’t understand that we are about to witness a massive attempt to corrupt American democracy by Trump, are living in a dream land.

Ministers continue to make decisions on fast-track projects after parties take donations linked to applicants One political scientist believes such donations to political parties could be perceived as creating a conflict of interest but official advice disagrees.

Just your daily reminder that Chris Bishop is both the chief fundraiser for the National Party election campaign and needs major donations, and the decision maker giving businesses access to the fast track process. www.rnz.co.nz/news/nationa...

TV wars: New TVNZ quiz show - can it catch The Chase?; Tenancy turmoil: Outspoken businessman to evict Stuff from print plant Why are we waiting a week for MAFS?; NBR eyes MBIE legal action; NZME music radio changes.

Looks to me that Wellington either won't have a daily newspaper this time next year, or it will have to be printed nightly in either Christchurch or Auckland, both of which would be prohibitively expensive & time-consuming. RIP @thepost-nz.bsky.social? #nzpol www.nzherald.co.nz/business/med...

47,500 more kids in material hardship since 2022 1 in 7 or 169,300 kids now live in material hardship; Commissioner says kids can't wait for the economy; Construction sector confidence, jobs & activity slump in Feb after pre-Xmas mortgage rate hikes

Today’s Chorus: 1 in 7 or 169,300 kids now live in material hardship; Claire Achmad says kids can't wait for the economy; Construction confidence, jobs & activity slump in Feb after pre-Xmas mortgage hikes; & NZ’s most popular politician migrates to Australia #nzpol open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/...

The Weekly Hoon: Good climate policy better for economy & affordability; Housing the homeless better than hiding them Bernard Hickey & Peter Bale chat with Cathrine Dyer & Elaine Monaghan about the week's news in politics, geopolitics, the economy & climate in NZ & beyond; Plus Polly Atatoa Carr on 'move-on' orders

In this week’s Hoon...good climate policy is better for the economy, jobs & affordability. Also, Housing the homeless is better than hiding them. Includes Polly Atatoa Carr on those 'move-on' orders #nzpol open.substack.com/pub/thekaka/...

In today’s NZ Herald

Here we go…

Skilling did cover the problem of the current account deficit, aka “relying on the kindness of strangers,” at 20:45 in the kākā minihoon. It connects well to @bernardchickey.bsky.social’s ‘what is the North Star’ discussion and also the idea we need outward direct investment if we hope to scale?

From today's @financialtimes.com #AI #wombtransplant

Fake News. Newsday.com/matt

This chart helps to understand why young people around the world increasingly turn their backs to established political parties. Politics and economics are in flux. I expect old parties everywhere to die while new parties emerge. Established parties must reinvent themselves.

Weekly jobs update. Still looks like we are settling on zero jobs growth for a while. I mean it is better than losing jobs, but it's not a recovery is it? (1/3)

A country might well turn itself into a surveillance state with the consent or negligence of its elected representatives.

But this US insistence on other countries providing it with our biometric data — and fighting other data sovereignty measures — is about creating a global panopticon for itself.