NPV10

Non recourse gpu financing…by a litigious issuer in a sector with no experience/track record of navigating credit cycles… i think we might get somewhere fun here

There’s prbably a neocloud or two that could fail spectacularly and drag down some adjacent power plays but that stuff seems to be all funded by pc/hf/pe

“The analysts identified 75 companies across tech, utilities and capital goods sectors that are closely tied to AI, including Oracle Corp., Apple Inc. and Duke Energy Corp.”

Idk this is fine. ultimately ex orcl this is not really where direct ai bubble exposure is going to lurk (megacap ig debt)

all of those but rather than "curb energy use @DCs", the answer is to aggressively price and allocate expansion costs to incremental demand users. big tech has been keen to avail themselves to marginal costs when they were low (solar & wind of past) but now wants to bid total costs instead

its because of the relative ease (vs old econ incumbents) at which big tech build their empires, that they are reflexively terrified at OpenAi coming for them. So they will spend defensively even at the cost of destroying whats behind their moats.

not sure the current market dynamics react beyond initial headline reflexes

feels off based on moco vibes. Redfin suggests slightly less extreme swing?

in a K shaped econ, could argue that say a 150bps decline would provide less relief to borrowers (personal and corp) that need it most? what does 4.5% 30 yr rate do to housing - I think a lot of higher end consumers start to trade up (and pull money from stocks to do so).

sort of the dissonance where tech growth isn’t necessarily debt backed so the credit stumbling happens in somewhat adjacent & random industries until / if we see non megacap datacenter exposures

i suppose outsized stick positions are one way to tackle excess tier1

10x Debt/EBITDA fully underwritten by JPM... 🤔

because its still easy for people to avoid using crypto as an investment if they aren’t that into it; payment pressures counterparties with adoption

but none of history‘s big capital incinerators though of themselves as anything but rational players at the time. what feels different now is tech doesn’t have leverage risks but entering into a race to self deflate their margins… might keep the moat but find what’s behind it is far less valuable

Don’t disagree it’s just that more gen capex in 2019-23 would make what’s to come a lot less painful. conceptually, you have say $0.5-1tn of GPUs coming online shortly and just acting as very inelastic power consumers - just different dynamics to respond to prices than say an aluminum smelter

To be fair decline in capex will lead to more painful increase in cost in future as demand outstrips supply. The thing about assets with 25yr useful lives is that the cost becomes v painful when you need to deal with a somewhat sudden supply shortage…

there is this limitation of where some of these sectors (energy & industrials...) felt their ideological alignment would yield accretive policy and yet it turned into a limited attention economy for this stuff that goes to highest bidder (tech & crypto)

bsky.app/profile/fint...

probably gotta have significant liabilities not just runaway valuations to get zeroed so not sure who is prime candidate for that in the 0.5tn+ club... orcl?

why solve energy supply when you could just exclusively work on this one neat trick aka demand response lol what could go wrong

idk they work for labor not ICE. Same way the national parks should prob stay open for now?

think group chats are underestimated in how they are supplementing this with a veneer of exclusivity/authenticity to launder otherwise ordinary x influencer takes (since everyone's more online, doesn't even read wsj opeds, fewer "overheard at the country club social hour" exposures)

having kids made the cc game no longer worth it given how convoluted it's become (who's got time for that) - my rec would be Cap1 VentureX which is not crazy exp (~100 net of travel credit) with most of the sensible perks (some lounge, primary rental car ins, etc) and ok points/miles

cc issuer are able to charge higher merchant fees for premium cards (argument: they bring in higher value customers) so in theory (but not always practice) these consumers should get higher rebates too via points/perks

partially true that coming from nyc (or boston or generic wealthy burb), dc is more dangerous but also there was just less housing for young professionals (navy yrd, noma, shaw etc) when barro was likely here so easier to stay west

you obviously get to keep all the specialty seafood items from the Asian Pizza Hut menus items in region "D"

also underrated: it’s mostly filmed in singapore, not many foreign productions filmed there in that era I believe

is it indicator of formal vs informal economy for this labor? ”alternative hiring indicator consists of payments from Bank of America small business clients to small business-focused hiring firms which
include both direct deposits through Automated Clearing House (ACH) and payments via credit card…”

Associated / wet gas is the natural gas byproduct from primarily crude/liquid wells.

Because of ERCOT but also because significant wet gas by-prod (c 1/3 across the us) during the shale boom has been one of the reasons we’ve enjoyed cheap gas over the years. As liquids growth slows, will have to turn to more dedicated gas dev (Barnett shale etc) to meet demand

valid concern... biggest issue is that it’s not clear which crazies we ought to be most concerned about right now