NPV10

it’s always been a combination of can you please confirm that this person with very common name is not in fact a 19yr old Russian war criminal or one of 93 narco hits in latam for me with those

Welcome. If they go ahead, we will all enjoy the S-1 that I’m sure is currently being drafted by a rather tortured group of lawyers & co

WeWork amends confidential IPO filing Office sharing company WeWork on Monday filed a confidential amendment to its paperwork to float an initial public offering, taking a step closer to becoming a publicly traded company.

S-1 is still public during roadshow but not during the SEC review period prior to that. Same as was done for WeWork.

finance.yahoo.com/news/wework-...

“only” 50bn offered into IPO (<3% mcap) with a massive wave of secondary sales to follow will be something to watch…

Fairly standard process over past decade or so

Few years ago, LPs were telling infra PE that they they are struggling to make the case when they can get higher absolute returns with lower risk in PC (not much pause to reflect why/how)

Having toiled on a bank lending desk once upon a time, I wonder how the margin compression feels in PC… we’d just have pressure to chalk up x-sell revenues at that point of the cycle knowing the credit is a loss maker.

the silver lining is that like with Trump 1, the inexperienced political hires don’t actually have the patience or talent to implement much of anything and DFC remains mostly in a permanent state of irrelevance

Just as AI became the catch-all excuse to trim wage related expenses, it will now become an catalyst to swing at the SaaS recurring expense bloat accrued by most orgs

I mean they are capturing value by pushing up differentiated valuations instead of offering MFN to everyone in the round?

The bigger issue with all of this is that the lead VCs aren’t exactly known for most rigorous DD either…

I think more or less copy/paste of GIP deal… funny how GIP/HPS founders end up w much higher net worth than Larry as a result because of BLK failure to build successful alts businesses

to get 100bn from investors who aren’t also your supplier ie use of proceeds other than related party payments

its really helpful that they proactively don’t include the performance of these in their track record, really shows retail how GPs think of them

both. But also, if you’re an LP you sort of have many reasons not to go nuclear (incl. spotlight on underwriting inv into poor governance fund) whereas on retail side, only upside?

Excellent. Gives me even more comfort on the markdowns to come if they managed to transfer 30% at par to their very favorite real clients.

Eeek. idk at some point you’d imagine retail guys are more likely to be a legal risk to pull the “just one little trick one more time” but I suppose potential litigation in future is better than the alternative for them today?

“pension funds and insurance companies would buy the loans at an average of 99.8 per cent of their carrying value using new vehicles to be managed by Blue Owl” … you‘d imagine that was a lovely LPAC

got it… role of pensions become more interesting when they sit across public assets (infra etc) I think where this trade off is even more direct perhaps. on other hand, db seat at the table is shrinking probably as would be expected given the long term trends…

is the argument here that pension LPs provide excess liquidity at lower return expectation that leads to expansion into previously untapped segments? Tbh more plausible causation is that traditional LBO targets have been exploited (repeatedly) so quest for new assets goes on

I’d be surprised if top10 are only MMs/inst.

I think unlike the conventional casino or sports books, prediction “markets” allow some very wealthy personality types (that you’d imagine would know better) to believe they are engaged in +EV activity.

Agreed just imagine the top20 vol by $ is really strange combination of institutional and just absolute degen individuals

this seems natural suspicion but presumably, just like with casinos, having poor gambling impulses is quite scalable to some very rich clients as well

Notable that the “news” is the takedown, not posting of racist content by Trump

I guess grok does KYC at MS…

it just seems like with multiple tn of val tied to a mentally declining human meme, there’s also room for active strategies

with musk responsible for multiple % of total us stock mkt, the like value destruction (profit from shorts) of like creative coordinated campaign to mess with him is quite high? like some Malaysian influencers got him to lose a good chunk of his mind already how much is left?

125m aum and 35 bps fee

idk idk i feel like everyone is treating this as an investment product an I just want strong spite for money value and that’s likely found elsewhere

Exclusive: Vanguard vote switch helped pass Tesla CEO Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package Tesla's largest outside investor Vanguard said it voted in favor of CEO Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package, citing the company's performance, contributing to the passage of the record-setting arrange...

Don’t get me wrong plenty of reasons to do VOOexMusk:

www.reuters.com/business/aut...

Not my space (feels like something @smtuffy.bsky.social would know) but the other way to think about it that if Musk is 5% of sp500 (post SpaceX) then you are paying a fee of [7bps delta times 20] 1.4% on value of Musk holdings to be excluded?

10bps also low, small ETFs are like 50bps+ usually