Gabriel Mesevage

Also. open.substack.com/pub/sankaran...

Survival Models

There's a nice discussion in the stan user manual here mc-stan.org/docs/stan-us... although my impression is that it's not that simple

And returning attempted migrants picked up in the Med to secret EU-funded jails in Libya and Tunisia where they're tortured and raped. Or simply throwing them back in the sea to drown.

Taking Our Chances This one's for the academy, I guess

Sometimes you have to write “Truth and Probability” just because Margaret won’t fuck with you.

open.substack.com/pub/rottenan...

A great journal article (available under open access) on what has always struck me as an understudied topic; the long half life of reserve currencies.

www.cambridge.org/core/service...

MicroStrategy’s secret sauce is volatility, not bitcoin Self-reinforcing market forces are creating demand for Michael Saylor’s ‘lottery ticket’ convertible bonds

MicroStrategy's perpetual motion cash machine, as explained by the peerless @thekrazykobra.bsky.social

on.ft.com/4gdHdMe

“No worries if not” -President Yoon Suk Yeol

Moment of truth. Will Yoon follow the law, and if he doesn't, will the military go with him or not? Very fluid situation in South Korea that all began only a few hours ago.

Hard not to compare this to the US response to 1/6 and conclude the American people just don’t got that dog in them anymore.

This was my tenth(!) year building 25 days of puzzles for #AdventOfCode. You can solve them all for free! Most people write code to solve them, but you can solve them however you like. I hope they help people become better programmers. 🌟

The first puzzle comes out in two hours: adventofcode.com

I dunno he might be on to something

Globalization, Trade and the Populist Response Podcast Episode · The Economic History Podcast · 31/10/2024 · 45m

1/4
Kevin H. O'Rourke is one of my favorite economic historians, especially on the history of trade. In the second half of this very interesting podcast he discusses the history of globalization and anti-globalization movements.

@kevinhorourke.bsky.social
podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/g...

Greece’s economic rebound in (painful) context Scar tissue that I wish you saw

“Dynamic” is a bit strong as it applies to Greece. It’s essentially finally coming out of extended depression and remains very poor. I’m reminded of the FTs take when the Economist feted it on.ft.com/3OtJ9EA

Anderson is full of clever insights. This point about Balkan history had never occured to me

I had no idea Fischer was such a Nazi.

Christopher Clark · The Murmur of Engines: A Historian's Historians Perry Anderson brings a peculiar gift to the work of criticism: he can step into a book and inspect it closely, even...

This review essay by Christopher Clark on Perry Anderson's new book on the historiography of WWI is great. www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v4...

You could combine approaches as suggested here doi.org/10.1093/rest... If you put the group averages of the covariates (Mundlak device) into the propensity score estimator it captures idea that treatment is unconfounded within groups and sort of smuggles the FEs into your estimator

The 25% tariff on Canada is clearly part of the broader bipartisan backlash against Justin Time Manufacturing.

A textbook view of preferences is that they are largely convex, because they must be, because how else would we get interior solutions

But attention seems to sit in a spot with meaningful non-convexity. And all other preferences seem to eventually respond to attention

Gotta love those private equity marks. on.ft.com/411fTfH

(5/5) This question is as in Abadie et al (QJE). The answers there are relevant here. If the estimand involves averaging over a large population of therapists, you should cluster, if you want to keep the population of therapists fixed, you should not cluster. There are some technical subtleties,

One Election Takeaway: Voters Hate Temporary Safety Nets Announcement: I'm putting on an end of year sale. For just 55 dollars a year you can subscribe and receive premium pieces of Notes on the Crises. This also helps support the FOIA efforts I've been eng...

NEW: my very long election take is here. The key is to understand how beneficial the pandemic era programs were and how painful their expiration was
www.crisesnotes.com/one-election...

AI-generated Production Network (AIPNET) A knowledge graph of production-linkages built with AI.

Version 1 of the AIPNET Production Network, with all data, is available at aipnet.io. You can also interact with the network in real time on the site! Please reach out if you want to discuss further!

Sure the fraud is bad, but also, what are these experiments measuring?

there is no research question, and indeed no problem in life in general, where a poisson regression will not solve all of your problems.

did you mean to link a paper? i'm not sure which political scientists you're referencing

Welcome | Geocomputation with R Welcome | Geocomputation with R is for people who want to analyze, visualize and model geographic data with open source software. It is based on R, a statistical programming language that has powerful...

I don't know a course but this free online book is very good on the r spatial package ecosystem r.geocompx.org

That's the object of this paper if you haven't already seen it www.nber.org/system/files...

A lot of good ideas here for my whitepaper on a beanie baby strategic reserve