Kabir K.

He gets relatively better marks on immigration, and approval of his deportation program has been hovering around 50% mark. Also, his rating on handling conflict between Israel and Hamas has gone up

That said, the economy/inflation are what the most people are judging his administration on right now

Concern about effects of the government shutdown has risen

Americans w/ lower incomes are more concerned about being personally affected by it (have gone from 33% very concerned to 49% over last month)

And Congress is NOT seen as working to end the shutdown

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Trump approval at low point with:
'24 non-voters (33%)
Independents (30%)
People of color (26%)

Economic outlook remains negative, with few expecting prices to decrease any time soon, and many saying Trump's policies making them worse off

More from latest poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

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NEW

Trump sees his lowest approval ratings of term on handling:
Overall job (41%)
Economy (38%)
Inflation (34%)

Economy/inflation policies most important to people in judging administration

More *strongly* disapprove of his job handling (46%) than approve somewhat/strongly — true since July

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As expected, share of NYC early voters <45 has grown over early voting period...

As of today, it's 39% of the 584K voters who've checked in, meaning it's a younger electorate than in past two mayorals

And we see healthy turnout in parts of Brooklyn and Queens where Mamdani did well in the primary

At this rate, we’re likely to see NYC's highest mayoral turnout rate in many years

It’s already on track to be highest in 20 years, may climb even higher

1.6 million total votes -> 34% turnout (would be highest rate since '01)
1.8 million -> 38% turnout
2 million -> 42% turnout (highest since '93)

IF this trend continues, we'll see a big uptick this weekend and hit approximately 750,000 early votes by Sunday night

That's in addition to mail ballots cast ahead of Election Day

All signs point to an overall turnout rate that's much higher than what NYC typically sees for mayoral elections

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NYC voters are turning out in large numbers during the early voting window, which is just over halfway complete

Daily haul is mirroring trajectory during 2022 midterms

You see larger volume on weekend (days 1-2), downtick on Monday (day 3), and uptick during extended voting hours (days 4-5)

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Vampire mode… engage

Even after weighting, there's a ton of poll-to-poll variation in estimates of support within demographic subgroups. Saving this for the next time someone goes sub-group diving with future polls.

Our AAPOR report on the 2024 polls is out today

It's a comprehensive look at pre-election polling, including how accurate polls were in historical context, demographic and geographic patterns, and the diversity of methodologies in this evolving industry

Check it out here: aapor.org/announcement...

The AAPOR Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling has released its final report today. aapor.org/wp-content/u...

Excited to begin this new chapter of election research with a great team and innovative methodology...

CBS News poll finds California Prop 50 support motivated by national focus, opposition to Trump A majority of California voters oppose Trump's deportation program — many say it weakens their local economy.

NEW

Prop 50 is a state ballot measure on redistricting, but many Californians are thinking nationally, motivated by opposition to Trump

Most likely voters say they would vote Yes on 50, while those oppsoed tend to see it as mostly a state issue, saying it shifts power from rural areas and costs $

Indeed, 30% of those who say Trump's doing the "same things he promised in the campaign" disapprove of his job handling

Also notable: that "things he promised" topline has been falling, from 70% at the start of his term to around half now

Largest drop has been with independents (-24 pts since Feb)

Latino voters who backed Trump could be a key factor in New Jersey governor's race Trump made substantial inroads in heavily Latino areas in New Jersey in 2024, but many have since soured on him and the GOP, a CBS News analysis finds.

A look at Latino voters in New Jersey, including why we'll be closely watching Passaic County at the Data Desk this fall...

Trump deploying National Guard to U.S. cities is not popular — its support level matches his (underwater) job approval rating

Deploying active duty finds even less favor, with only 31% of Americans saying troops in their area would make them feel more secure

Latest: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

Couple data points as we approach two years since Oct 7

Support for U.S. arming Israel has hit new low, at just 33%

Support for U.S. aid to Gaza has risen to highest we've seen

Trump approval rating on handling conflict largely unchanged (note: survey fielded before reports of possible ceasefire)

CBS News poll finds few feel shutdown is worth it; low marks for Republicans, Democrats, Trump's handling Americans are concerned about effect of shutdown on economy, amid unease about jobs and inflation.

Shutdown may be compounding economic worries: economic impact is what Americans are most concerned about, among list of possible consequences

Troops deploying to U.S. cities is divisive, with strong backing from GOP base but little support beyond it

More below: www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

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Fewer call Trump "focused" than did at start of this term

Large majority says administration isn't paying enough attention to prices, with most saying it's too focused on tariffs

Few say Trump's policies are making them any better off

And now, most say Trump's policies are costing U.S. jobs

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Amit shutdown and persistent econonmic concerns, Trump approval rating back to its low point this term

New lows among women (36%), White people (49%), Trump voters (85%), Republicans (87%)

At 35%, approval on handling inflation also at a low

Just half say he is doing what he promised in 2024

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Possible signs of receptivity to Democratic messaging...

Independents likelier to say Dem positions worth shutdown than GOP's are, especially those closely following news

Among independents paying closest attention:
Most blame Trump/GOP more for shutdown
Most say debate primarily about health care

NEW

Few say government shutdown is worth it, amid concern about economic impact and low marks for Democrats, Republicans, and Trump's handling

More blame for Trump & GOP than Democrats currently

"Extreme" top descriptor for GOP

"Weak" top descriptor for Democrats

www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

CBS News poll finds Americans say political violence unacceptable; concerned about more of it in future Most believe people do get along, but politics drives them apart.

And it's younger folks who are likeliest to report cross-cutting political discussions, in person and online

Age <45
57% in person
45% online

Age 45+
48% in person
36% online

See below for more from latest CBS News/YouGov poll on political silos and views of violence and civility in politics

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How often do Americans talk politics with someone of differing views?

Not much... and it's even less so than four years ago

Most aren't comfortable expressing views publicly, and see consequences like insults/threats/problems at work

Cross-cutting conversations likelier in person than online

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NEW

Lots of concern about AI's impact on economy/jobs

Majority now say AI companies will hurt economy — that view spans education/income levels, but less prevalent among young

Big change from early internet years, when most felt dot com growth helped economy

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...

Today, just over half say job market is bad — worse than evaluations this spring

Most say if they were job hunting, it would be hard to find the kind they want

Market is not seen as growing: only 12% see more good jobs where they live than five years ago

More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-ne...

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NEW

Americans remain pessimistic about economy, with most now rating job market negatively, alongside inflation concern

Another uptick in share saying economy's getting worse, with prices still big factor in evaluations

At 64%, share saying prices have been rising is highest it's been in '25

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Reminder that Adams dropping out of NYC mayoral race doesn’t really move the needle — Mamdani still leads by double digits, according to our poll

His support is so low that reallocating his voters to their second choice only helps Cuomo a little bit (and not all of Adams’ backers pick Cuomo second)

And two thirds of newer residents — those who moved to NYC within last 10 years — pick Mamdani, while margin's smaller among longer-term residents

Moved in last 10 years:
68% Mamdani
17% Cuomo
7% Sliwa

>10 years ago:
49% Mamdani
30% Cuomo
9% Sliwa

Born in NYC:
35% Mamdani
28% Cuomo
21% Sliwa

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