Magnus Johansson

Introduction to geomtextpath geomtextpath

You just need to install the `geomtextpath` package. Here is an intro vignette: allancameron.github.io/geomtextpath...

Two plots side by side showing time in weeks on x axis and probability of returning to work on the y axis. The left hand plot shows the trajectory of two groups (self-efficacy improved or not improved), while the right hand plot shows the probability difference between the two groups.

geomtextpath can really help make a plot easier to interpret. Nice to avoid using a legend. #rstats #dataviz

Och återinföra arvsskatt när en rimligt hög nivå överstigs, vilket rent ideologiskt även borde gå i linje med liberala tankegångar.

Analyses of ‘change scores’ do not estimate causal effects in observational data AbstractBackground. In longitudinal data, it is common to create ‘change scores’ by subtracting measurements taken at baseline from those taken at follow-u

Unless it's observational data? academic.oup.com/ije/article/...

Comic. Panels up to the 10-year point are grayed out. New panels since the Ten Years comic, which chronicles the first ten years of PERSON 1's journey with cancer: (1) [two people in bed] PERSON 1 (woman): One more chapter? PERSON 2 (man): Don’t we both have to get up early? PERSON 1: Nnnnnggggh PERSON 2: Sure, good point. (2) [many people wearing masks, walking while looking at graphs on their phones] (3) [birds landing on people] PERSON 2 in beanie and scarf: Hah! They like *my* seeds best. PERSON 1 in scarf holding phone with a bird sitting on it: Wait, how do I take a picture of this one? (4) [two people rowing boats with tree landscape] (5) [Person 1 carries overflowing stack of things to Person 2 in bed] PERSON 1: I brought you honey lemon tea, more pillows, a cinnamon roll, Tylenol, another blanket, a– PERSON 2: It was just Appendicitis, I’m really– PERSON 1: *It is my turn to take care of you and I am going to do it right!* (6) [Two people in car] (7) [still in car) PERSON 1: Oh my god. PERSON 2: Oh my god. (8) [car driving] PERSON 1: Pull over! PERSON 2: I am! (9) [both people get out of car] (10) [Large colored panel of aurora borealis over water with both people looking on] (11) [Person 1 sits against tree while Person 2 lies on the ground] PERSON 1: Fifteen years. No sign of the cancer. (12) I *am* having some weird symptoms. Joint pain. Fatigue. I think I’m losing my close-up vision. PERSON 2: Yeah. Me too. (13) PERSON 2: I think we’re getting old. (14) PERSON 1: I guess that’s okay. PERSON 2: It’s all I wanted.

Fifteen Years

xkcd.com/3172/

Link to blog does not work.

Meta halted internal research suggesting social media harm, court filing alleges Meta is alleged to have halted internal research suggesting social media harm, according to court documents.

Meta halted internal research that purportedly showed (young) people who stopped using Facebook became less depressed and anxious, according to an unredacted legal filing released on Friday. www.cnbc.com/2025/11/23/m...

Here is another paper on that topic that has some nice examples: www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Respectable lists of some great movies! I think you forgot Return of the Jedi, though.

More tinkering with relative measurement uncertainty proposed by @bignardi.bsky.social et al, using plausible values to estimate conditional reliability (inspired by @dmcneish.bsky.social) for Rasch models with WL estimation of latent scores. Code here: github.com/pgmj/easyRas...

I think there is some material on this in the current draft of the brms book.

They're going to crash the global economy by attempting to create an artificial general intelligence, despite having no idea what that is, no proof they can build it & no hope of doing so. Cunts just read too many sci-fi books.

Everyone involved in scientific publishing should take a look at these papers.

>"The domination of scientific publishing in the Global North by major commercial publishers is harmful to science; we need [...] to re-communalise publishing to serve science not the market."

Maybe try altdoc.etiennebacher.com

Two-group pre/post data are deceptively simple, and you could analyze them in many different ways, depending on your goals. Here are three blog posts on the topic:

solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2022-06...

solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2020-12...

solomonkurz.netlify.app/blog/2023-06...

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

I think the impact is pretty clearly disastrous. But can't blame the paper for all of it's misuse. See for instance:
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

I wish we could ignore Bill Gates on the climate crisis. But he’s a billionaire, so we can’t | George Monbiot Money talks – and his essay denouncing ‘near-term emissions goals’ at Cop30 mostly argues the case for letting the ultra-rich off the hook

“…the net worth of the 10 richest US billionaires grew by $698bn in the past year. That money alone, the increment in the wealth of 10 people, is almost 10 times the annual amount required to end extreme poverty worldwide.”

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Meta earns $3.5 billion every six months from showing Faceboon and Instagram users 15 billion “higher legal risk” scam ad impressions a day, internal documents state.

That haul vastly exceeds how much the company expects regulators
To fine it for running scam ads.

www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Waiting for a new work Mac, I’m using an M1 Air 2020 which only has 4 high performance cores. Running some tests in R, the Air is twice as fast when using only 4 cores compared to using 8 cores (including the high efficiency cores).

I was just notified of another paper citing our paper as validating the Swedish PSS-4, when we actually conclude that it should not be used. What was even more surprising was that one of my coauthors on the psychometrics paper was also a coauthor on the paper. Not sure what to do with this.

AI has an "emperor has no clothes" problem where people imagine there are geniuses who will inevitably achieve breakthroughs with enough cash.

AI is bottlenecked by limits in data availability, statistical mechanics, & computing. Improvements will be expensive & incremental, not fundamental.

a cartoon of a man in a suit and tie standing in front of a fire escape ALT: a cartoon of a man in a suit and tie standing in front of a fire escape

Forced to deal with Microsoft Outlook/etc at work, I constantly find the default settings to be annoying/stupid. I wonder if they ever gather data to understand user preferences or just make assumptions. Or am I the outlier?

I'm now also looking for a postdoc with strong Bayesian background and interest in developing Bayesian cross-validation theory, methods and software. Apply by email with no specific deadline (see contact information at users.aalto.fi/~ave/).

Others, please share

New release of PowerLMM.js! Browser-based power analysis for longitudinal models with dropout.

Now includes:
- Power analysis summary report
- Reproducible & shareable configs (URL/JSON)
- Calculations validated against R
- Hypothesis region visualization

powerlmmjs.rpsychologist.com

Screenshot of https://powerlmmjs.rpsychologist.com/

🎉 @rpsychologist.com 's PowerLMM.js is the online statistics application of the year 2025 🎉

powerlmmjs.rpsychologist.com

- Calculate power (etc) for multilevel models
- Examine effects of dropout and other important parameters
- Fast! (Instant results)

in my post-academic era i have become extremely scathing of the way academia considers papers to the primary outcome of intellectual work, and refuses to give credit to academics who write software or build other tooling. in industry we very rarely read your papers; but we always use your software

A "methods primer" article in the journal "BMJ Medicine", titled "Factors associated with: problems of using exploratory multivariable regression to identify causal risk factors"

We wrote an article explaining why you shouldn't put several variables into a regression model and report which are statistically significant - even as exploratory research. bmjmedicine.bmj.com/content/4/1/.... How did we do?

I've done some more work on the relative measurement uncertainty, comparing `brms` posterior draws to "plausible values" in Rasch models, and some other reliability metrics. Estimating RMU from draws adds some variation, as shown in the figure.
pgmj.github.io/reliability....
#rstats #psychometrics

Hmm. I thought I was getting these prompts since I use an always on VPN.

Anthony Biglan's "The Nurture Effect" shines a light on how we can intentionally design better societies. It's about building upstream prevention and fostering nurturing environments. What are your thoughts? snapt.io/CUHnJ #SocialScience #CommunityDevelopment #Prevention Image: Vectzeey